Russian invasion of Ukraine

[SweeperDee]

Talk that some believe the attack was Russia deliberately poking NATO to see what they will do; pretty sure that triggers Article 5 if it turns out that is the reason why a Russian missile landed in Poland. Think the US AND China need to have words with everyone and try to stop it from boiling over.

[Dev]

//www.aa.com.tr/en/europe/polish-gov-t-readies-military-units-mulls-call-for-nato-article-4/2739291

This via NewsNow.

Polish gov’t readies military units, mulls call for NATO Article 4

With tensions still high in Ukraine and Kyiv under renewed attack, deadly blast in eastern Poland raises fears of Russian missile attack

Jo Harper   |16.11.2022

 

WARSAW 

Poland said Tuesday that it is considering calling on NATO to trigger Article 4 after two people died in explosions in the village of Przewodow, a few kilometers from the country’s border with Ukraine.

Article 4 permits members of the alliance to call a NATO meeting when they perceive a threat to the “territorial integrity, political independence or security” of any NATO ally.

“We are increasing the readiness of some military units and other uniformed services,” said government spokesman Piotr Müller during a press conference after an urgent meeting of the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Affairs.

Müller did not provide any information on the cause of the explosions.

“We have decided to undertake the verification of whether there are any premises in order to initiate the procedures resulting from Article 4 of the North Atlantic Treaty,” said the spokesman.

According to unconfirmed information, two variants are being checked. It is possible that Ukrainian defenses shot down a Russian rocket and it changed the flight trajectory, or the Russians entered the data incorrectly, which caused the rocket to hit a tractor on Polish territory.

Prime Minister Mateusz Morawiecki convened the Committee of the Council of Ministers for National Security and Defense Matters as a matter of urgency, Müller said.

President Andrzej Duda was at the meeting, alongside the head of the Ministry of Interior and Administration Mariusz Kaminski, head of the Ministry of Foreign Affairs Zbigniew Rau and Minister of Justice Zbigniew Ziobro.

Radio Lublin reported that emergency services and representatives of the army are working at a farm’s grain drying site where the explosions occurred around 3.40 p.m. local time. The explosion occurred 500-600 meters from a primary school. The area near the explosion site is closed, with drones flying over the village, according to local media at the site.

Police did not give the reasons for the explosion.

If confirmed, this would be the first time someone has been killed on NATO territory as the result of a Russian strike. All NATO members are obliged to protect and defend every part of the alliance’s territory under Articles 4 and 5 of the alliance’s treaty.

A US intelligence official said the missiles were Russian, according to AP.

Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy accused Russia of deliberately attacking Poland.

"This is a Russian missile attack on collective security," he said. "This is a very significant escalation. We must act…(It is) only a matter of time before Russian terror goes further,” he said.

Russia’s Defense Ministry posted a statement on its Telegram account saying this is "a deliberate provocation in order to escalate the situation."

State news agency Ria Novosti cited a Russian "military expert" who claimed Russian cruise missiles “would not have been able to reach Polish territory, but Ukrainian S-300 (surface-to-air) missile systems, functioning abnormally, could.”

The situation follows an attack of Russian forces on energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. Some of the missiles hit the western part of the country, close to the border with Poland. The Russians attacked Kovel in Volhynia. The city, which is located about 65 kilometers (40 miles) from the Polish-Ukrainian border, is without electricity. The mayor of the city appealed to residents to stay in shelters, because the danger of attack was very high.

Poland has been one of the most vociferous advocates of arming and supporting Ukraine against Russia. There is a cross-party consensus that Poland’s future relations with Russia hinge fundamentally on the outcome of the conflict in Ukraine.

“In an emergency, regardless of internal disputes and differences, we must all be united and in solidarity. We will be together in this difficult moment,” said Donald Tusk, leader of the Polish opposition party Civic Platform (PO).

Warsaw has invested heavily in its relations with the US, some believing often at the expense of good relations with Berlin, Paris and Brussels.

Poland wants a permanent NATO base in Poland and a shifting of troops from Germany to the eastern border of the EU.

There are several unresolved issues related to alleged Russian interference in Polish domestic politics since at least 2014. The ruling Law and Justice (PiS) party still believes the Russians were responsible for a 2010 plane crash in Russia that killed about 100 senior Polish public figures, including then-President Lech Kaczynski, en route to commemorating the 1940 Katyn massacre of Polish POWs held by the NKVD.

Anadolu Agency website contains only a portion of the news stories offered to subscribers in the AA News Broadcasting System (HAS), and in summarized form. 

 

Edit: Regardless of what may actually have happened  they could either reach the site of the missile landing or they couldn't:

"a Russian "military expert" who claimed Russian cruise missiles “would not have been able to reach Polish territory"

Next we have:

"The situation follows an attack of Russian forces on energy infrastructure facilities in Ukraine. Some of the missiles hit the western part of the country, close to the border with Poland."

 

 

Edited November 15, 2022 by Dev
.

[Dev]

Ultimately Russia placed a missile close enough to the Polish border that, if a mistake happened, it was foreseeable that it might land in Poland and might cause damage (Between minor or large scale damage).

If it was in the vicinity of significant power lines within Poland then even more reason to take care. The word Reckless springs to mind. 

[ICTChris]

Polish foreign ministry has said it was a Russian rocket. 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, SweeperDee said:

Talk that some believe the attack was Russia deliberately poking NATO to see what they will do; pretty sure that triggers Article 5 if it turns out that is the reason why a Russian missile landed in Poland. Think the US AND China need to have words with everyone and try to stop it from boiling over.

Article 5 doesn’t require the attack to be “intentional” or such, just that it occurred within a certain geographic area and struck a NATO member. If this was a deliberate test of NATO’s resolve, it is insane. Striking at a power line, within 500m of a primary school, with a weapon reported to have a CEP of 50-100m, but whose accuracy in this conflict has been reported as significantly worse, is the epitome of folly.

This could easily result in a NATO CAP over western Ukraine with instructions to splash anything heading west.

[SweeperDee]

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-calls-tenders-print-50-162107016.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

[TxRover]

Impact was at 3:40PM local time. Amazed there was no child hurt.

Top retired General states it doesn’t rise to the Article 5 criteria, but may well result in provision of advanced jets and more anti-air systems to Ukraine.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

3 minutes ago, SweeperDee said:

https://news.yahoo.com/belarus-calls-tenders-print-50-162107016.html?soc_src=social-sh&soc_trk=tw&tsrc=twtr

You would have thought there were loads of old Gestetner machines kicking about.

[The Moonster]

6 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Polish foreign ministry has said it was a Russian rocket. 

Biden saying it was Ukraine firing at an incoming Russian missile. 

[Elixir]

In time at least, might this actually be a catalyst for putting pressure on Zelensky and Ukraine to try and compromise? Or will it be the green light for more advanced equipment being sent?

[TxRover]

21 minutes ago, Elixir said:

In time at least, might this actually be a catalyst for putting pressure on Zelensky and Ukraine to try and compromise? Or will it be the green light for more advanced equipment being sent?

Assuming it was an anti-air missile launched against an attacking missile, Russia still takes the hit for targeting somewhere close to the Ukrainian border with a neutral with a weapon whose attempted interception could have been foreseen. If it was a wild missile without a nearby target, Ukraine gets tarred. Either way, should have been a sobering few minutes in the Kremlin!

[MP_MFC]

Hopefully it will lead to some of Zelenskyy’s rhetoric being dialled down at the very least. Understandably he’s trying to paint Russia in as bad a light as possible but in the immediate aftermath of this he was calling on article 5 etc and for all other nations to attack Russia. 
 

Yes this wouldn’t have happened had the Russians not launched their barrage but he needed to keep his powder dry with regards to this until the facts became known. 

[Bairnardo]

I still hope this leads to a "you have used up all your chances" conversation from the US tbh. No doubt there will now be plenty of tedious "flash flag" shite flying about that Ukraine plan to hit Poland again to trigger a response.

Russia don't appear able to win in Ukraine by and definition of win. They also can't get out without admitting defeat to Ukraine which seems unlikely.

Let them admit that the loss of their entire Navy off the back of another stray missile isn't something they can accept and slither back into their box

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The important thing to remember about Russia killing people in Poland is it's America's fault, m'kaay.

© Detournement

[Newbornbairn]

1 hour ago, Elixir said:

In time at least, might this actually be a catalyst for putting pressure on Zelensky and Ukraine to try and compromise? Or will it be the green light for more advanced equipment being sent?

The problem with Ukraine "compromising" is every time they recapture a town or city they find evidence of war crimes and atrocities. Russia is murdering, raping, forcibly deporting and stealing the children of Ukrainians. What Ukrainian leader could abandon his people to that?

[dorlomin]

Quote

Looking at the crater, it looks a wee bit big for the S-300, but a little small for a Kalibr missile…a lot depends on where it explodes relative to the ground and structures.

In case there is any doubt. I think some of the people who post on this thread are absolute bullshit merchants. I mostly ignore them, they fill in facts gleaned from watching youtube videos on "army stuff" with wild assumptions. 

When ever there is a crisis like last night, find credible people with decades of specialist knowledge and take your opinions from them, they will mostly say "wait till we have the facts".

[Sergeant Wilson]

11 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

In case there is any doubt. I think some of the people who post on this thread are absolute bullshit merchants. I mostly ignore them, they fill in facts gleaned from watching youtube videos on "army stuff" with wild assumptions. 

When ever there is a crisis like last night, find credible people with decades of specialist knowledge and take your opinions from them, they will mostly say "wait till we have the facts".

Oh shut up!

[CambieBud]

36 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

In case there is any doubt. I think some of the people who post on this thread are absolute bullshit merchants. I mostly ignore them, they fill in facts gleaned from watching youtube videos on "army stuff" with wild assumptions. 

When ever there is a crisis like last night, find credible people with decades of specialist knowledge and take your opinions from them, they will mostly say "wait till we have the facts".

You are quite right. The first casualty in every war is the truth. Too many people both here and elsewhere, take as gospel every utterance from Zelenskyy and The Ukrainian side. 
People deliberately choose to ignore  the fact that The U.K. and our allies were responsible for ‘shock and awe’ in Iraq and hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties both there and Afghanistan. By contrast, Russian aggression in Ukraine has been much more measured. Is the fury and outrage because Ukrainians are white? 
I am NOT excusing this barbaric and illegal Russian aggression, but before accepting every piece of propaganda, remember that, understandably, it is in Ukraine’s interest to exaggerate or indeed make up stories designed to garner support from NATO.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, CambieBud said:

By contrast, Russian aggression in Ukraine has been much more measured. Is the fury and outrage because Ukrainians are white? 
 

Thank Heaven for small mercies.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, CambieBud said:

People deliberately choose to ignore  the fact that The U.K. and our allies were responsible for ‘shock and awe’ in Iraq and hundreds of thousands of civilian casualties both there and Afghanistan.

Who? The thread title is "Russian invasion of Ukraine", not "Bad things the UK have done".