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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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45 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

If he ordered the divers in under the Baltic he is monumentally stupid but after what happened on Feb 24th it's not safe to assume he is a rational actor.

If he did it he's pretty well made rapprochement with the West impossible, the leverage is gone, assuming the pipeline is unrepairable. He's shown any voices advocating compromise that it's not going to happen, and Russia is just going to have to live with the sanctions, and he's not going to do anything to get them lifted. That combined with seizing Ukrainian territory into the Russian empire means he's blocking any route to compromise. He made an almighty misjudgement on February 24th but can't admit it, so Russia will just have to bear the consequences for years to come, and Europe for one chilly winter. 

Edited by welshbairn
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29 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Lot of noise that Belarus is beginning a mobilisation. Seems nuts. I will believe it when I see it. 

Lukashenko is far more vulnerable to public resistance than Putin, I doubt he'd test their loyalty, or his army's.

Edited by welshbairn
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1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

It couldn't be more obvious the attacks on NS were carried out by the US in an effort to control its so-called allies in case they decided to tell them that, actually, it turns out they aren't willing to freeze their own citizens, or transfer any more wealth to the US in the form of buying LNG at any named price for the sake of their beef with Russia.

Europe is little more than collateral damage in this war now, and Ukraine itself barely an afterthought.

The US is not the ally to the UK and EU they are painted to be.

Conspiracy pish, it’s classic divide and conquer by Russia and uses their best weapon of propaganda.  The Russians have always been the masters of it. Russia currently stands alone facing the combined power and wealth of the Western World and no backing from most of the UN there is NO WAY they can win against that with conventional weapons.

They need to find a way to split the nations backing Ukraine. They take out the Nord Stream pipelines (as why would Russia do that when they could just turn off the taps? the people ask) point the finger at the Yanks and let the conspiracy myth out onto Social Media for people to spread. Their hope is it causes the EU to fracture and withdraw from backing Ukraine and splits NATO permanently.  A weakened West sees China grow a set and hey presto the Yanks are standing against Russia and China defending Ukraine and Taiwan.
 

The Yanks are self interested A holes but they’re not stupid enough to attack their main allies while squaring up to Russia as they need both the support and the strategic positions Europe and the Yanks falling out is Russia and Putin’s wet dream. 

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35 minutes ago, San Starko Rover said:

Conspiracy pish, it’s classic divide and conquer by Russia and uses their best weapon of propaganda.  The Russians have always been the masters of it. Russia currently stands alone facing the combined power and wealth of the Western World and no backing from most of the UN there is NO WAY they can win against that with conventional weapons.

They need to find a way to split the nations backing Ukraine. They take out the Nord Stream pipelines (as why would Russia do that when they could just turn off the taps? the people ask) point the finger at the Yanks and let the conspiracy myth out onto Social Media for people to spread. Their hope is it causes the EU to fracture and withdraw from backing Ukraine and splits NATO permanently.  A weakened West sees China grow a set and hey presto the Yanks are standing against Russia and China defending Ukraine and Taiwan.

The Yanks are self interested A holes but they’re not stupid enough to attack their main allies while squaring up to Russia as they need both the support and the strategic positions Europe and the Yanks falling out is Russia and Putin’s wet dream. 
 

What propaganda use directed at Europe is there from Russia destroying a pipeline they already turned off? If Russia wanted to use the pipeline as propaganda they could test the will of Europe by offering to supply them gas through it at a massive discount. Blowing it up removes any leverage they have.

The United States stand, by far, the most to gain from the permanent disablement of NS & NS2 in both the short and long term and, frankly. They also publicly stated that they would ensure that NS2 was never turned on. Contrast this to Russia who just a few weeks back offered to turn the taps back on at any time in return for the lifting of sanctions.

Given the wealth transfer that has already happened without anyone making so much as a peep of noise about it, they are also arrogant enough to do something like this without fear of backlash. Afterall, who would believe it was them, and what are they going to do about it anyway?

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I don't see the motive for the US, Germany is never going to allow itself to be dependent on Russia again, American LNG sales are already guaranteed. Gazprom still have significant assets in Europe like refineries and distribution networks, if they continued to refuse contracted supply these assets would be liable to confiscation. Force Majeur from blowing them up is a get out. 

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2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

What propaganda use directed at Europe is there from Russia destroying a pipeline they already turned off? If Russia wanted to use the pipeline as propaganda they could test the will of Europe by offering to supply them gas through it at a massive discount. Blowing it up removes any leverage they have.

The United States stand, by far, the most to gain from the permanent disablement of NS & NS2 in both the short and long term and, frankly. They also publicly stated that they would ensure that NS2 was never turned on. Contrast this to Russia who just a few weeks back offered to turn the taps back on at any time in return for the lifting of sanctions.

Given the wealth transfer that has already happened without anyone making so much as a peep of noise about it, they are also arrogant enough to do something like this without fear of backlash. Afterall, who would believe it was them, and what are they going to do about it anyway?

Splitting Europe is nothing to do with the price of the gas. If that was the case the EU would already be out when it shot up so offering cut price gas does nothing. Russia wants two things here, 1 it’s territory back Putin has always stated this and 2 to get NATO off its border. The Yanks have massive influence in Europe through NATO and bases right on Russias  borders the risks to reward of attacking several NATO partners would be far too great even for that reward.  If it was thought to be the Yanks and it was believed by the EU then NATO would be done.  With no NATO the former eastern block is completely open for Russia to retake and have the full influence of Europe.  Russia has far more to gain here than the Yanks. 

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1 minute ago, welshbairn said:

I don't see the motive for the US, Germany is never going to allow itself to be dependent on Russia again, American LNG sales are already guaranteed. Gazprom still have significant assets in Europe like refineries and distribution networks, if they continued to refuse contracted supply these assets would be liable to confiscation. Force Majeur from blowing them up is a get out. 

There's a difference between "becoming dependent" and simply buying what is cheaply available as you diversify your portfolio, so to speak.

Anyone who believes that, following the war, European countries would simply choose to pay more for gas from elsewhere than recover their losses by buying discounted Russian gas as they build nuclear power plants, increase renewables capacity etc is being a bit naïve.

Gazprom is a majority state owned company - if Russia did blow up the pipelines, then it can be argued Force Majeur clauses do not apply.

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A scenario that hopefully does not take place but if the mobilisation falls flat this could worryingly be seen as a get out although the Kremlin would surely be split on such an action?

 

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37 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Germany is never going to allow itself to be dependent on Russia again, American LNG sales are already guaranteed.

America was reintegrating Germans who planned and executed the Final Solution into West Germany a handful of years after WW2. I don't think you can rule out Germany buying Russia forever. 

American LNG sales maybe guaranteed but the price is variable. 

America as a competitor also benefits from European industry shutting down. 

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8 minutes ago, jagfox said:

A scenario that hopefully does not take place but if the mobilisation falls flat this could worryingly be seen as a get out although the Kremlin would surely be split on such an action?

 

So the Russian end game is to use nuclear weapons on its neighbour to invite a nuclear strike on itself and then not retaliate?

Ludicrous.

I also don't believe that Russia using nuclear weapons in Ukraine would lead to NATO using nuclear weapons in response either.

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