Russian invasion of Ukraine

[vikingTON]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Something to bear in mind when genocide is discussed:

 

Which of the categories do you/your Twitter hot take guy think that falls under? 

[Detournement]

The Ukrainian state made it illegal for Russian speakers to speak Russian in school.

[ICTChris]

Reports that Lyman is now completely surrounded.  Not sure how accurate that is but at the very least the only route in and out of Lyman is under complete control of Ukrainian artillery.

Not sure how many Russian troops are left in Lyman, reports that there were around 2,000 there a few days ago.  Could be ugly if they are encircled.

 

[ICTChris]

Reports that Putin will sign a decree annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia to the Russian Federation at 3pm in Moscow tomorrow.

 

[101]

7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Reports that Putin will sign a decree annexing Donetsk, Luhansk, Kherson and Zaporizhia to the Russian Federation at 3pm in Moscow tomorrow.

 

How many of these are in full Russian control? 

Its going to be interesting to see how it's managed to avoid escalation when he can claim an invasion has begun on any areas under full Russian control tomorrow.

[LongTimeLurker]

None are fully under control of Russia although Luhansk oblast is > 98% controlled.

[ICTChris]

2 minutes ago, 101 said:

How many of these are in full Russian control? 

Its going to be interesting to see how it's managed to avoid escalation when he can claim an invasion has begun on any areas under full Russian control tomorrow.

Donetsk - Around 60% in Russian control.

Luhansk - Around 95% in Russian control.

Zaporiziha - Aounrd 60% in Russian control.

Kherson - Around 90% in Russian control.

Ukraine is attacking in Kherson and Luhansk at the moment though.

Population spead is different - the majority of the population in Zaporizhia are in Ukrainian controlled areas for example.  Quite a lot of the areas that have seen heavy fighting during the war have seen most of the population leave.

[101]

6 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Donetsk - Around 60% in Russian control.

Luhansk - Around 95% in Russian control.

Zaporiziha - Aounrd 60% in Russian control.

Kherson - Around 90% in Russian control.

Ukraine is attacking in Kherson and Luhansk at the moment though.

Population spead is different - the majority of the population in Zaporizhia are in Ukrainian controlled areas for example.  Quite a lot of the areas that have seen heavy fighting during the war have seen most of the population leave.

Thanks, does seem like Putin is just waiting for an excuse to escalate further I guess the big question is how he does that.

[welshbairn]

In statements they usually start with Donetsk and Luhansk, and sometimes add Zaporiziha and Kherson almost as an afterthought. Could be they're leaving some wiggle room with Donetsk and Luhansk as their absolute bottom line if it goes badly for them and they need to negotiate on the other two.

[Detournement]

There's a fire at the Zaporohyze Nuclear Power Plant. 

It's been a strangely eventful week.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

In statements they usually start with Donetsk and Luhansk, and sometimes add Zaporiziha and Kherson almost as an afterthought. Could be they're leaving some wiggle room with Donetsk and Luhansk as their absolute bottom line if it goes badly for them and they need to negotiate on the other two.

Russia is going to integrate all four regions into a Crimean Federal District. 

[welshbairn]

What the Moscow papers say. Medvedev getting a bit of a kicking.

 

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Russia is going to integrate all four regions into a Crimean Federal District. 

Aye, to be ruled over by this chap.

 

[The DA]

2 hours ago, 101 said:

Thanks, does seem like Putin is just waiting for an excuse to escalate further I guess the big question is how he does that.

I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war.

Not sure what he does then.  Call up the big army (which he can't train, arm or command) and throw them at the front lines?

[Bairnardo]

I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war.
Not sure what he does then.  Call up the big army (which he can't train, arm or command) and throw them at the front lines?

NATO presumably planning for that eventuality and have a plan for what to do if they are suddenly given the opportunity to rout Russias entire forces using Ukranian meat shields.....

[ICTChris]

22 minutes ago, The DA said:

I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war.

Not sure what he does then.  Call up the big army (which he can't train, arm or command) and throw them at the front lines?

 

21 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

NATO presumably planning for that eventuality and have a plan for what to do if they are suddenly given the opportunity to rout Russias entire forces using Ukranian meat shields.....

I don't think declaring war is going to make any difference now.  

Pre-mobilisation, the argument for Putin to declare war was that it would allow him to start a mobilisation and enact stop/loss policies for contract soldiers (ie professional soldiers cannot refuse to deploy).  The decree around mobilisation has done this without a declaration of war.  

[LongTimeLurker]

54 minutes ago, The DA said:

I'm guessing that any attacks launched by UKR to regain lost ground will then be seen as an attack on Russian territory and will allow him to formally declare war....

Does war or SMO make any practical difference at this point? My money's on naw it disnae. The mobilisation apparently is less partial than initially spun and they can basically already take whoever they want on pain of a 10 year jail sentence Stalin and the gulag archipelago style. 

Problem for Putin is that if Nordstream is completely toast (yet to hear if the fourth leak reported today took out the remaining NS 2 pipeline that was said to be undamaged yesterday) Ukraine and Poland control most of the remaining pipeline inventory to central and western Europe. They will both choose freezing this winter if need be, so his leverage is largely gone. In other words he is annexing parts of four oblasts while losing fossil fuel sales to the EU before he has time to pivot effectively to China on pipelines and with the lend lease programme yet to ramp up.

If he ordered the divers in under the Baltic he is monumentally stupid but after what happened on Feb 24th it's not safe to assume he is a rational actor.

[Detournement]

Germans are going to have their access to heating limited this winter. Protests demanding more gas via NS2 would have been huge but obviously not now.

 

[Detournement]

12 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

(yet to hear if the fourth leak reported today took out the remaining NS 2 pipeline that was said to be undamaged yesterday)

Lol.

[Todd_is_God]

2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Germans are going to have their access to heating limited this winter. Protests demanding more gas via NS2 would have been huge but obviously not now.

It couldn't be more obvious the attacks on NS were carried out by the US in an effort to control its so-called allies in case they decided to tell them that, actually, it turns out they aren't willing to freeze their own citizens, or transfer any more wealth to the US in the form of buying LNG at any named price for the sake of their beef with Russia.

Europe is little more than collateral damage in this war now, and Ukraine itself barely an afterthought.

The US is not the ally to the UK and EU they are painted to be.