Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

Russia haven't been supplying gas through either Nord Pipeline anyway, and it's only 100 metres deep so no biggy to fix, so no real strategic advantage to anyone, unless Russia are looking for another excuse to keep Germany cut off. Ukraine might have done it just to stir things up I suppose. I can't see why America would bother, some Russian media are blaming Britain but that's par for the course. We'll probably never find out.

[charger29]

Save it for Reddit.
I mean how stupid are people who believe Russia would blow up their own pipelines when their leverage in Europe comes from being able to turn the gas on and off. 

Do you believe the US did this unilaterally or with the involvement of NATO/EU?

[Detournement]

1 minute ago, charger29 said:

 

Do you believe the US did this unilaterally or with the involvement of NATO/EU?

 

There is not a chance in hell Germany or France agreed to this.

Apparently the Royal Navy has been training Ukranians on the use of underwater drones so the geniuses in Whitehall may be involved as well. 

[Detournement]

4 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Russia haven't been supplying gas through either Nord Pipeline anyway, and it's only 100 metres deep so no biggy to fix, so no real strategic advantage to anyone, unless Russia are looking for another excuse to keep Germany cut off. Ukraine might have done it just to stir things up I suppose. I can't see why America would bother, some Russian media are blaming Britain but that's par for the course. We'll probably never find out.

Obviously it's a biggy to fix because it's in Sweden and Denmarks economic zone and they have active sanctions on Russia. 

[Newbornbairn]

37 minutes ago, Detournement said:

There is not a chance in hell Germany or France agreed to this.

Apparently the Royal Navy has been training Ukranians on the use of underwater drones so the geniuses in Whitehall may be involved as well. 

FFS, nobody tell him about the sharks with frickin' lasers.

[charger29]

There is not a chance in hell Germany or France agreed to this.
Apparently the Royal Navy has been training Ukranians on the use of underwater drones so the geniuses in Whitehall may be involved as well. 

That just doesn't seem logical to me. That would be a ludicrous gamble by the US/UK/Ukraine and the end of NATO if ever proven.

The US would risk giving up their grip on Europe just so they can sell some more LNG?

[LongTimeLurker]

A Polish MEP seems to think it was the Americans:

Greta must be going completely cherry menthol.

[TxRover]

2 hours ago, Detournement said:

Why would Russia blow up Nord Stream 1 and 2? How fucking stupid are these people. 

If they were going to sabotage a pipe they would surely pick the ones that transit through Ukraine.  

To provide continuing “excuse” for not providing gas. Plus, may cause blame to be passed around the West…was it the Yanks, to raise gas prices, was it the Hungarians who have other routes for gas, was it…

It also serves their plans to provide gas and oil to India and China to replace the European markets.

[welshbairn]

34 minutes ago, charger29 said:

 

That just doesn't seem logical to me. That would be a ludicrous gamble by the US/UK/Ukraine and the end of NATO if ever proven.

The US would risk giving up their grip on Europe just so they can sell some more LNG?

 

I don't see the motive for the US, Germany is already signing LNG deals with them and everyone else who can supply it. Russia hasn't supplied any gas for weeks and before that it was only 20% of normal. As I said, the pipeline is relatively easy to fix, and Germany has learnt to its cost that it can never rely on Russia for its energy supplies again, so the US has already won that battle without lifting a finger.

[dorlomin]

Nord Stream 2 has been legally dead since February 2022. German paperwork says so. 

The idea that a CIA/MI6 operation sought to take the most high risk operation in like ever to break a pipeline that is stopped by the decree of the Budezkanzler is really in cloud cuckoo land.

From the Russian perspective or at least perspective of elements within the Russian 'governing' structure:  Knowing it is physically broken and will take months to years to bring back online may have been seen as some as a way of stopping anyone thinking a soft coup could have gotten relations back to a more normalised basis. Others have suggested is a strong reminder that Norwegian pipes under the Baltic and North Sea are just as vulnerable. 

Meanwhile in Ukraine, lots of photos of Ukrainian flags near towns that make life very difficult for the Russians in Lyman. I feel one or two regular commentators may be about to take a break again. 

Edited September 27, 2022 by dorlomin

[jagfox]

 

 

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, dorlomin said:

 

The idea that a CIA/MI6 operation sought to take the most high risk operation in like ever to break a pipeline that is stopped by the decree of the Budezkanzler is really in cloud cuckoo land.

Field Marshall Chandler Bing.

[LongTimeLurker]

Lyman very close to losing all its supply routes if this is accurate:

The info is coming from Russian sources. Presumably Vlad insisted they had to stand and fight. The parallels with Adolf in the latter stages of WWII are obvious.

[Detournement]

NATO helping out the terminally stupid.

[LongTimeLurker]

While bearing in mind these words of wisdom from the Ukrainian front line:

What would Russia gain by blowing up their own gas pipelines under the Baltic so they have to send most of their gas to the EU through Ukraine and/or Poland or flare it off when they always had the ability to turn off the tap? Alternative pipelines to China can't be built for another 5 years minimum and it was far from impossible that the Germans and French would cave in to some of their demands this winter. Now if they try Warsaw and Kiev can simply turn it off and tell them to grow a pair.

Maybe Poland did it given they are sure they are next in line if Ukraine loses and were always bitterly opposed to Nordstream to the extent that a German U-turn on Nordstream could now be viewed as an existential threat to their national security that justifies taking some direct action France vs the Rainbow Warrior style.

[welshbairn]

I'm not sure how much Gazprom have got to lose, if anything, by not fulfilling their contract to supply Germany with gas, but they're running out of excuses. Germany has been trying to fill up their reserves to try and cope with the Winter, it's definitely in Russia's interests that it goes badly. Within the Kremlin it must be galling that their armed forces and military technology are doing so badly, maybe Putin thought they needed a little wink at what they could do, like the exotic attempted murder techniques used publicly in London and Salisbury. From what I understand it wouldn't be a massive lengthy job to repair the pipeline, it's a steel tube with some concrete, and not too deep for divers. Any number of nations could have done the sabotage, it wouldn't need a big sub which would have been easily spotted anyway. if it wasn't Russia I suppose the Poles might have been daft enough to do it, celebrating their new pipeline from Norway. Can't see the Ukrainians risking it, despite their impatience with German non delivery. I really can't think why the US or UK would think it would bring them any advantage. My best guess is another dumb move from Putin.

Edited September 27, 2022 by welshbairn

[welshbairn]

Meanwhile, Kremlin TV is getting disconsolate.

 

[bennett]

6 hours ago, Detournement said:

Save it for Reddit.

I mean how stupid are people who believe Russia would blow up their own pipelines when their leverage in Europe comes from being able to turn the gas on and off. 

 

 

[welshbairn]

Sorry for spamming, but here's another one with Kremlin TV stars worried about relatives getting called up.

 

[TxRover]

5 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

What would Russia gain by blowing up their own gas pipelines under the Baltic so they have to send most of their gas to the EU through Ukraine and/or Poland or flare it off when they always had the ability to turn off the tap?

They now lose the ability to supply a large portion of Northern Europe, while Southern Europe, which has been somewhat less vehement in opposition to Russia still can receive gas (Yamal to Poland/Germany to tease with; BlueStream and Turkstream to Turkey and export facilities there; and TANAP to Bulgaria…plus Brotherhood/Soyuz which transit Ukraine to Hungary and Italy).

Blowing up Nordstream hurts all the players you named EXCEPT Russia…Occam’s Razor applies.

Edited September 28, 2022 by TxRover