Russian invasion of Ukraine

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[Andy_AUFC]

Don’t back down, double down.

[ICTChris]

This seems to be a way to deal with enlisted soldiers refusing to fight - it's pretty much impossible to quantify how many Russian soldiers have refused to deploy but there are tentative estimates that in some places it's 20-30% of a unit.  Those numbers are very high and will have a significant impact on the ability of a unit to be effective.  

The issue is that without a specific mobilisation, they can't stop people not signing up or leaving when their contracts finish.  Most of the guys recruited earlier in the war were on six month contracts and I doubt they'll sign all of them up again - some of them won't want to fight again after the experience in the combat zone, they'll be signing up to fight in Ukraine over winter which will be very uncomfortable.  A lot of them will think that they've got their money and leave.  This doesn't really deal with that issue.  

You also have to think about how effective people who have been effectively forced into battle will be - will they be wiling to fight aggressively, will they be willing to attack or take risks?  How many of these guys will sabotage their own equipment or surrender when they can?  The new legislation also includes a clause penalising surrender with up to ten years in prison.  

[ICTChris]

In addition, the sepratists in Luhansk are saying that they are holding a referendum on annexation by Russia this week.  Despite Russia taking the entirity of Luhansk earlier in the war, Ukrainian troops have recently began moving back into the Oblast though.

Referendums in other Oblasts are expected but have previously been cancelled.

[dorlomin]

Once its signed and sealed, the guys sitting in Russia in conscript battalions will be sent to become the missing infantry from the BTGs currently deployed. Well Id assume that, it seems to most sensible thing to fill the huge gap. 

The LNR and DNR troops might also start getting proper gear, they will be formally part of Russia. Perhaps all simply folded into the Russian army and again distributed as infantry for existing mechanised formations. 

The big ticking question mark is artillery stocks. Will Xi give them enough to keep fighting. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_equipment_of_the_People's_Liberation_Army_Ground_Force#Gun_artillery

They dont have huge amounts of 152mm stuff, most of the longer range is 155mm. They do have a lot of 122mm. So they could sell that. But again they have serious worries about Taiwan going independent and trouble breaking out with India. 

[ICTChris]

Putin is making an address on Russian television tonight.

Donetsk have said they will hold a referendum this week as well.  It will be done online, in a war zone in places that don't have internet access.  Not even an attempt to make it legitimate.  As noted above, this will mean that conscripts can be posted to these areas.

Some of the reports on the new laws say that it makes a criminal offence for reservists not to report for service.  Seems to be set up for a partial mobilisation - reservists will be called back on pain of arrest and any contractors who refuse will be prosecuted.  Not sure what they do if large numbers still refuse and what do they do when, as is highly likely to happen, draft age men leave Russia in droves.

Edited September 20, 2022 by ICTChris

[LongTimeLurker]

Some people are claiming Lyman has been liberated:

we'll see if it is more accurate than the recent Lysychansk stuff, and if accurate whether it's the first domino in another major advance.

[dorlomin]

Apparently about 20 000 contractors refused to deploy. Russia currently has about 130 000 conscripts. The Russian army is designed to be a mass mobilisation army. Its equipment is designed not to be the best in the world but to be useable by conscripts, its tactics are not meant to be the smartest but ones you can teach conscripts. Now it looks like all those empty seats in BMP2s are going to have warm bums to fill them. Cooks and radar operators with full time contracts who skipped on the first 6 months look to have won themselves tickets to some of those seats. 

Putin looks like he might be trying for a zerg rush while the ammo lasts. 

[ICTChris]

24 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

Apparently about 20 000 contractors refused to deploy. Russia currently has about 130 000 conscripts. The Russian army is designed to be a mass mobilisation army. Its equipment is designed not to be the best in the world but to be useable by conscripts, its tactics are not meant to be the smartest but ones you can teach conscripts. Now it looks like all those empty seats in BMP2s are going to have warm bums to fill them. Cooks and radar operators with full time contracts who skipped on the first 6 months look to have won themselves tickets to some of those seats. 

Putin looks like he might be trying for a zerg rush while the ammo lasts. 

Is this the case now though?  Can they arm, train, supply and deploy more soldiers?  The mobilisation will likely take several months, will it make a difference in time?

[Elixir]

What an absolute riddy Russia is.

[ICTChris]

Article in how the decision was reached for this escalation in the Kremlin. Essentially, several pro war figures appear to have prevailed following the Kharkiv counter offensive.

https://meduza.io/feature/2022/09/20/partiya-voyny-pobedila
 

The initial decisions to delay the votes lead to a lot of the collaborators getting worried. After the events in Kaharkiv the concern is that a Ukraine will win back it’s territory and punish them, these rushed votes are an attempt to secure the collaborationist authorities in place.

The votes themselves are clearly fraudulent, a joke. I can’t see this changing the attitudes of Ukraine or any of the countries helping Ukraine one bit. Ukraine are currently taking back territory, albeit slowly in all the regions that are having votes. They managed to kill several officials carrying out the vote and just destroyed the collaborator administration in Kharkiv. 

[Newbornbairn]

6 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Is this the case now though?  Can they arm, train, supply and deploy more soldiers?  The mobilisation will likely take several months, will it make a difference in time?

I presume he'd want to hold what he's got for now, sit out the winter and go for it again next March. One thing we've seen so far is Ukraine is so big, it's difficult to defend the whole front in strength so a concerted effort in one place coud succeed. 

[ICTChris]

Also, none of the Oblasts that they are having the votes in are fully controlled by Russia and the ones that are most controlled (Kherson and Luhansk) are likely to have more territory retaken by Ukrainian forces soon.

[TxRover]

33 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Is this the case now though?  Can they arm, train, supply and deploy more soldiers?  The mobilisation will likely take several months, will it make a difference in time?

Arm, perhaps supply and deploy, check…train, nope. The proper training needs to be done with the unit you are joining if you are replacing any more than 5-10% of personnel. The proper initial training before joining that unit ALSO requires capable trainers in the training locations, something Russia lacks currently as they are all deployed.

[Ginaro]

8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Also, none of the Oblasts that they are having the votes in are fully controlled by Russia and the ones that are most controlled (Kherson and Luhansk) are likely to have more territory retaken by Ukrainian forces soon.

Looking at Defmon's map https://www.scribblemaps.com/maps/view/Operational Map Ukraine/nBT8ffpeGH - only Luhansk Oblast is completely under Russian control, they're still missing a big chunk northwest of Donetsk.

I doubt everyone in Zaporizhzhia city (pop 700k) will be voting for the Russians to come north and take the rest of their Oblast...

[LongTimeLurker]

The Russians definitely lost at least one village in Luhansk oblast called Bilohorivka (close to Lysychansk) about a week ago and probably a couple more immediately south of it since then.

Not the Bilohirivka circled but the one at the top of the map.

[Hillonearth]

1 hour ago, Elixir said:

What an absolute riddy Russia is.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

 

The votes themselves are clearly fraudulent, a joke. I can’t see this changing the attitudes of Ukraine or any of the countries helping Ukraine one bit. Ukraine are currently taking back territory, albeit slowly in all the regions that are having votes. They managed to kill several officials carrying out the vote and just destroyed the collaborator administration in Kharkiv. 

Do you think that people in DPR and LPR actually want to be a part of Ukraine after 8 years of war, seeing their political parties outlawed and the integration of extreme Ukrainian nationalist paramilitaries into the state?

There are also 2 million Ukrainian passport holding refugees in Russia.

 

[Detournement]

6 hours ago, jagfox said:

 

 

 

When Erdogan says rightful owners he means Turkey!