Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Newbornbairn]

Quote

Germany takes control of Russian-owned refinery amid energy crisis

https://www.reuters.com/business/energy/germany-puts-rosneft-deutschland-under-trusteeship-2022-09-16/

 

That's significant. 

[ICTChris]

Firefights in Kherson tonight, not confirmed what’s going on but footage of Russian troops taking fire online.

[ICTChris]

Reports that Ukraine have seen some losses attributed to the recently imported Iranian UAVs. Several pieces of Ukrainian equipment have been destroyed in recent days, with intelligence saying this is down to the Shahed kamikaze drone. 

Ukraine seem to be lacking in air defence systems to combat these drones. I’m not sure where they’ve been used, it might be the case that Ukraine have had to mass their current air defence in Kherson and Kharkiv for the offensives and they are thinly spread elsewhere. There is talk of air defence being prioritised in the weapon shipments from Western countries. 

[TxRover]

6 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Reports that Ukraine have seen some losses attributed to the recently imported Iranian UAVs. Several pieces of Ukrainian equipment have been destroyed in recent days, with intelligence saying this is down to the Shahed kamikaze drone. 

Ukraine seem to be lacking in air defence systems to combat these drones. I’m not sure where they’ve been used, it might be the case that Ukraine have had to mass their current air defence in Kherson and Kharkiv for the offensives and they are thinly spread elsewhere. There is talk of air defence being prioritised in the weapon shipments from Western countries. 

Shahed-136 is pretty much impervious to air defences, even the Israelis can’t reliably stop them. The air defences are currently needed to try to stop cruise missile attacks, with the more tactical units assigned to the forward forces. Point defence weapons could potentially inhibit the 136, but it is stealthy and hard to spot. The ultimate answer is two-fold…reactive armour and the fact that there is not a capacity to deploy and huge number of 136’s. Iranian stocks are likely less than 500-1000, probably closer to 100, and a huge ramp up of production in either Iran or Russia is not technically possible in the short-term.

There is also the targeting matter, with smaller, armoured targets being hard to pre-program, meaning the Russians may be getting these kills using direct control, a technique vulnerable to jamming and spoofing. Also, the 136 is a relatively large drone for a kamikaze unit, wasting a large amount of materials for a small return when used against individual units. If they focus on command and control element, they might see results.

[LongTimeLurker]

Guess the recent infrastructure attacks by cruise missiles would explain this, if it turns out to be accurate:

 

[Lurkst]

21 hours ago, ICTChris said:

 footage of Russian troops taking fire online.

Are they playing Quake?

 

[The Other Foot]

Reports in this weekend’s FT that President Xi made it clear to the Kazakhs that China would protect them from any incursion into their territory. Proving once again that @virginton should stay away from international relations 

Edited September 18, 2022 by The Other Foot

[LongTimeLurker]

Rumours that Lysychansk has been liberated;

 

 

seems a bit too good to be true though.

[dorlomin]

Hour and a half recap of where we are and how we got here. Can be listened to on 1.5 speed in an hour. Relatively high end. My only comment is we have not seen many\any Polish donated PT-91 They are T-72s brought up to late 80s western standards. I think whatever the main Ukrainian thrust will be, they will spear head it short of the US donating Abrams. 

 

 

 

[doulikefish]

Reports of a Russian counter offensive and reports of it being repelled in various areas 

[jagfox]

 

[jagfox]

 

[moses1924]

interesting map @jagfoxand shows how the Russian advance ground to a standstill for a long time before Ukraine hit back. Thanks to @ICTChrisand all the others for regular updates on this thread

[jagfox]

Russia seems to be concentrating on hitting civilian infrastructure. Worrying when that includes targets around NPPs. Apparently water is off at the town next to Zaporizhizha NPP, Enerhodar. 

 

[ICTChris]

Lysychansk stays in Russian control.

[dorlomin]

Next three months this was is going to increasingly be about Russian artillery stocks and if someone can replenish them and the coming winter. 

No weather event shapes outcomes on a battle field like extreme cold. I know most will think 0C is a bit nippy getting from the house to a bus. But try doing a 12 hour stand in a trench. Ukraine can easily get to -10C regularly. I assume the Ukrainians will be well supplied by US and European surplus kit. 

LNR\DNR perhaps. Probably not. They are going to take extreme casualties if Russia does not dig deep into stocks of winter clothes. 

But it will be a humanitarian disaster for the civilians without electricity or gas. 

[TxRover]

13 hours ago, jagfox said:

Russia seems to be concentrating on hitting civilian infrastructure. Worrying when that includes targets around NPPs. Apparently water is off at the town next to Zaporizhizha NPP, Enerhodar. 

 

Might be a mistake. The Russians threaten to hit civilian infrastructure if the Ukrainians hit any targets inside Russia itself, but…since they already are, perhaps the Ukrainians might decide to lob a few at some ammo dumps and such, depending on getting longer ranged weapons.

[ICTChris]

Analysis of the Kharkiv counter-offensive by Konrad Muzyka, who offers good anaysis of the war in general.

https://ridl.io/the-kharkiv-offensive-and-its-consequences/

The end is interesting

Quote

 

Operationally, we do not know the Ukrainian plans and whether they will extend its attacks from the Kharkiv into the Luhansk Oblast. However, although considered a low-probability event now, another Kharkiv-like operation could relatively quickly place Ukrainian forces along the Luhansk-Severodonetsk line and effectively force the collapse of Russian forces’ willingness and ability to fight in this war. It is no longer science fiction to think that the war will end in a matter of weeks or months, not years.

In this war, the Ukrainian strategy has been to trade territory for time, and with mounting Russian losses, time is now on Kyiv’s side.

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Suddenly calling for referenda on joining Russia after months of inactivity in that regard is a sign the two Donbas puppet states are worried about what comes next:

 

[dorlomin]

11 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Suddenly calling for referenda on joining Russia after months of inactivity in that regard is a sign the two Donbas puppet states are worried about what comes next:

 

Making them part of the Russian Federation will allow the Kremlin force any service personnel to deploy. Prevent those with existing contracts from terminating and allow them to call up reservists.