Russian invasion of Ukraine

[TheScarf]

25 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

Just need a better business plan, imho

They need to want it more.

[LongTimeLurker]

30 minutes ago, Dev said:

...Where would the Russian Navy currently based in the Crimea be able to escape to if they are eventually pushed out?

https://en.m.wikipedia.org/wiki/Novorossiysk

[ICTChris]

 

[strichener]

2 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

Just need a better business plan, imho

Nah, just need to want it more.

[LiviLion]

3 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

Just need a better business plan, imho

I think they just need to want it more

[ICTChris]

Reports of a Ukrainian breakthrough in Kherson, around the area of Davydiv Brid. It’s likely that the Russian forces fell back to other lines but this is potentially important because Davydiv Brid is on the road to one of the two main crossing points of the river and an important supply point, Nova Kakhovka. Could be one to watch.

Reports that Ukrainian broke through and crossed the smaller Inhulets river using Slovenian vehicles.

[jagfox]

 

 

[Newbornbairn]

Quote

Accounts of Russian torture emerge in liberated areas

https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-62888388

 

Well there's a surprise. 

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

 

That, if true, would be stunning. It would flank the entire Kherson area and necessitate a Russian pullback into Crimea, with the result of the control over 90% of the water for the Crimea returning to the Ukrainians. If they have left Melitopol, as suggested, the Ukrainians will have literally cut the Russian occupied areas into two separate pockets…and will have placed Kerch (and the bridge) within HIMARS range. Interdiction of supplies at Kerch would effectively besiege the Crimea and force the Russians to rely upon air and sea supply, including water…which is likely unsustainable.

[welshbairn]

Russian policy wonk questioning whether Russia even has the resources for full mobilisation even if it wanted to.

 

[Dev]

24 minutes ago, TxRover said:

That, if true, would be stunning. It would flank the entire Kherson area and necessitate a Russian pullback into Crimea, with the result of the control over 90% of the water for the Crimea returning to the Ukrainians. If they have left Melitopol, as suggested, the Ukrainians will have literally cut the Russian occupied areas into two separate pockets…and will have placed Kerch (and the bridge) within HIMARS range. Interdiction of supplies at Kerch would effectively besiege the Crimea and force the Russians to rely upon air and sea supply, including water…which is likely unsustainable.

Speculation and nothing more. Based on a complete mis-trust and fear of anything associated with Putin & Co.

Given reports of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station being in a potentially hazardous condition is Russia moving its' military away from that for a reason? Do they have plans to use it as a weapon of mass destruction? Is Putin, and the Russian Hardliners, desperate enough to do that?

There are also reports that the Iranian Drones are now in use and may be available in huge numbers now, or in the near future, with them being manufactured in Russia soon. Maybe it will become a Russian invasion fought from a distance rather than with conventional armed forces  - with these only sent in to mop up after damage has been done.

Hoping that these thoughts are wildly inaccurate but I thought it would be interesting to see what others here think as they are at odds with other reports so far on this thread.

[TxRover]

43 minutes ago, Dev said:

Speculation and nothing more. Based on a complete mis-trust and fear of anything associated with Putin & Co.

Given reports of the Zaporizhzhia Nuclear Power Station being in a potentially hazardous condition is Russia moving its' military away from that for a reason? Do they have plans to use it as a weapon of mass destruction? Is Putin, and the Russian Hardliners, desperate enough to do that?

There are also reports that the Iranian Drones are now in use and may be available in huge numbers now, or in the near future, with them being manufactured in Russia soon. Maybe it will become a Russian invasion fought from a distance rather than with conventional armed forces  - with these only sent in to mop up after damage has been done.

Hoping that these thoughts are wildly inaccurate but I thought it would be interesting to see what others here think as they are at odds with other reports so far on this thread.

With prevailing west or south winds for 53+% of the year, that would be bad for Russia.

The Iranian drones are vulnerable to a number of tactics, so it will be interesting…Russia doesn’t have the facilities to manufacture the necessary microcircuits for large scale self production. The problems related to remote warfare for Russia are the lack of sophisticated uplinks and the necessary computing systems, as the embargo’s are throttling these supplies. Every lost drone recover by the Ukrainians provides data on how the Russians are still getting the small amount of  advanced circuits that are in those units…those chips are usually clearly marked, and lacking markings, their construction is like a fingerprint.

Edited September 14, 2022 by TxRover

[superbigal]

With prevailing west or south winds for 53+% of the year, that would be bad for Russia.
The Iranian drones are vulnerable to a number of tactics, so it will be interesting…Russia doesn’t have the facilities to manufacture the necessary microcircuits for large scale self production. The problems related to remote warfare for Russia are the lack of sophisticated uplinks and the necessary computing systems, as the embargo’s are throttling these supplies. Every lost drone recover by the Ukrainians provides data on how the Russians are still getting the small amount of  advanced circuits that are in those units…those chips are usually clearly marked, and lacking markings, their construction is like a fingerprint.

The thing is to call them advanced circuits is not quite correct. Many ICs in even the more modern missiles have been obsolete for 10 plus years. The vast majority of the obsolete parts are now held in China by non official sources.
Having legit supply chains has always been a challenge.
Non franchised distribution in the UK used to make fortunes supplying Russia.

[Hillonearth]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Russian policy wonk questioning whether Russia even has the resources for full mobilisation even if it wanted to.

 

Some Russian sources love to talk about a mass mobilisation, but in reality the lack of well-defined and competent NCO and junior officer cadre in their army would make it a difficult project that would take a long time to train the draftees into anything that looks like a remotely competent army.

Ironically, the Ukrainians seem to have managed it by being better organised and led in the first first place along with outsourcing large proportions of training to external friendly sources. They've also got the Ingredient X of motivation knowing they're fighting on home soil literally for their lives and those of their families.

While they've got obviously got conscription in Russia, it seems to be a half-hearted and badly organised affair where very few learn much. There's a huge pool of Russians who have done a year's national service, but that doesn't equate to being plug and play in a war situation.

In Britain for example, some reservists are liable to be called up for active service in extremis but from what I understand they won't bother calling up anyone who's been out of the army for longer than five or six years...the idea being that things will have moved on so much in that period that inherent skill fade means that they might as well train somebody from off the street from scratch.

 

[ICTChris]

Michael Kofman discussed Russian mobilisation on the War On The Rocks podcast that came out a couple of days ago.

The Soviet Army was a mass mobilisation army, they had loads of infrastructure to support a mobilisation of society - Russia does not.  They could mobilise people but getting them into barracks, supplying them with uniforms, boots, weapons etc will be difficult.  It would be impossible to train them - there is no-one to train them, there isn't any equipment to train them on.  The Ukrainians have had difficulty in supplying and training their mobilised troops, those problems would be amplified for the Russian Army.

What the Russians have been doing is trying to raise volunteer regiments by offering cash payments - this has been successful to a degree in getting troops into the war in the short term but is very limited.  Most of these guys signed six month contracts and if they decide not to re-enlist they can't be forced to.

What Kofman said there is evidence of is the Russians starting to compile lists of military veterans with specific specialisms for a limited draft.  I think they can declare a limited mobilisation to stop contract soldiers leaving and to call up specific groups of people but the effectiveness of this is again likely to be limited.

[ICTChris]

https://www.reuters.com/world/asia-pacific/exclusive-war-began-putin-rejected-ukraine-peace-deal-recommended-by-his-aide-2022-09-14/
 

Story here suggesting that immediately pre war, a deal was agreed where Ukraine would agree to not join NATO and stay non-aligned. Putin rejected it.

[LongTimeLurker]

After all kinds of weird and wonderful tweets in recent days such as this one describing imaginary offensives:

an attack on Lyman does actually appear to be happening:

and this town may be the key domino that needs to fall to facilitate further advances by the Ukrainians.

[ICTChris]

Zelensky visiting Izyum.

 

[TxRover]

4 hours ago, superbigal said:

The thing is to call them advanced circuits is not quite correct. Many ICs in even the more modern missiles have been obsolete for 10 plus years. The vast majority of the obsolete parts are now held in China by non official sources.
Having legit supply chains has always been a challenge.
Non franchised distribution in the UK used to make fortunes supplying Russia.

While that is somewhat true, it’s also equally a bit misleading. The drones from almost any source require more recent circuits, the older chips are usually for missiles/guided weapons and the bottle-head there extends into motors and such.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

12 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Russian policy wonk questioning whether Russia even has the resources for full mobilisation even if it wanted to.

 

The new 15-1 looks a bit shit.