Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

You can surrender with a QR code, how very modern.

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[Michael W]

7 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Very brave possibly, but who do they want to replace him with? I doubt it's anyone who wants to negotiate peace. Here's hoping though.

 

Probably best they avoid walking near windows for the foreseeable future. 

Is it even possible for anyone to negotiate peace and spin it appropriately to try and minimise the backlash over thousands of lives being lost for essentially nothing? It's hard to see. 

It is interesting though perhaps not unexpected to see some dissent creeping in after the last few days. Wonder who carries the can for it - most likely another round of Generals being handed their jotters. 

[ICTChris]

32 minutes ago, Michael W said:

Probably best they avoid walking near windows for the foreseeable future. 

Is it even possible for anyone to negotiate peace and spin it appropriately to try and minimise the backlash over thousands of lives being lost for essentially nothing? It's hard to see. 

It is interesting though perhaps not unexpected to see some dissent creeping in after the last few days. Wonder who carries the can for it - most likely another round of Generals being handed their jotters. 

The commanding officer of the Western Military District has been replaced already.  He had been in position since 26th August.

 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

You can surrender with a QR code, how very modern.

 

Celtgers Chumpions League opponents should get some done and hand them out AnGio just before kick off. 

[ICTChris]

Loads of videos coming out from the offensive - this one is interesting.  It's an ambush of a Russian vehicle by Ukrainian troops behind Russian lines.  There isn't anything gory in it but I've put it in spoilers just in case.

 

One interesting thing about it is that it harks back to a lot of footage that came out in the early days of the war, when the Russian advance in the North ended up suffering significant losses to ambushes.  This sort of attack stopped occurring as much following the Russian withdrawal from the North because the war became more attitional in the Donbas, with both sides carrying out artillery duels across front lines.  It seems the collapse of the Northern/Kharkiv front by Russia has lead to a more fluid situation.

The other interesting thing is the location - the video says it was filmed near Kreminna, which is a small town near Severodonetsk.  This is Russian controlled territory but is seeing Ukrainian advances.  Kreminna has been reported as having been liberated by Ukrainians a day or so ago but if Ukrainian forces are operating in these areas it suggests that a push to retake places like Severodonetsk and Lysychansk is possible.

[Stellaboz]

Can anyone summarise how this is going? Are the Russians getting papped back home or is it getting bogged down with no end in sight? 

[LongTimeLurker]

11 minutes ago, Stellaboz said:

Can anyone summarise how this is going? Are the Russians getting papped back home or is it getting bogged down with no end in sight? 

Was the latter until last week, but now after a major advance in the north of Ukraine by the Ukrainians there are some indications that the former will happen over the next few months unless the Russians make some major changes.

[TheScarf]

5 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Was the latter until last week, but now after a major advance in the north of Ukraine by the Ukrainians there are some indications that the former will happen over the next few months unless the Russians make some major changes.

Becoming much, much better at war would be a good starting point. 

[welshbairn]

11 hours ago, TxRover said:

Interesting statement from some Municipal Deputies:

 

First part translates as: “Mundeps demand Putin's resignation Municipal deputies from 18 different districts of Moscow, St. Petersburg and Kolpino demand Putin's resignation. The text of the petition is concise and does not “discredit” anyone. If you are a mundep and want to join, you are welcome.

 

 

[ICTChris]

Sanctions news

 

 

[ICTChris]

Rob Lee taking time off posting photos of tanks to make a couple of good points today.

Russia can't deploy forces quickly enough across the wide front line.  It will likely take them about a week to move forces from front to front - clearly that's too long.  They also don't seem to be able to respond to information or make changes quickly - either due to logistical and technical difficulties or because they just don't understand what they are seeing. An example of this is Snake Island - it was obviously fairly quickly that the island was not defendable but they kept at it for far longer than needed, losing men and equipment for no purpose.  In contrast Ukraine is able to quickly redploy forces, they can rotate forces off the front lines and can do so quickly.

Related to this, Russia also do not have enough troops to properly defend all their lines.  If they had been able to respond and move forces to Kharkiv, they'd have weakened the Kherson front and would likely have lost more ground there (they have lost around 500 sq km in the Southern offensive).  Ukraine have manpower due to their mobilisation and the large training programme they have run with Western countries.

The sensible thing to do would be for Russia to withdraw their troops in Kherson to positions more favourable for defense, ie across the river.  From what we've seen in the war though, this doesn't seem a likely outcome. 

[TxRover]

7 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Rob Lee taking time off posting photos of tanks to make a couple of good points today.

Russia can't deploy forces quickly enough across the wide front line.  It will likely take them about a week to move forces from front to front - clearly that's too long.  They also don't seem to be able to respond to information or make changes quickly - either due to logistical and technical difficulties or because they just don't understand what they are seeing. An example of this is Snake Island - it was obviously fairly quickly that the island was not defendable but they kept at it for far longer than needed, losing men and equipment for no purpose.  In contrast Ukraine is able to quickly redploy forces, they can rotate forces off the front lines and can do so quickly.

Related to this, Russia also do not have enough troops to properly defend all their lines.  If they had been able to respond and move forces to Kharkiv, they'd have weakened the Kherson front and would likely have lost more ground there (they have lost around 500 sq km in the Southern offensive).  Ukraine have manpower due to their mobilisation and the large training programme they have run with Western countries.

The sensible thing to do would be for Russia to withdraw their troops in Kherson to positions more favourable for defense, ie across the river.  From what we've seen in the war though, this doesn't seem a likely outcome. 

Interior lines, that’s the Ukrainian strength. The Russians lost a huge (and nearly irreplaceable) rail pathway in the most recent clusterf**k, and instead now clearly have to loop supplies and forces out of Ukraine, through various Russian connections, and back into Ukraine. The Ukrainians have also been using HIMARS to target ammunition trains, who have the bonus of destroying patches of track when they go, which has significantly degraded the Russian rail capacity.

[ICTChris]

4 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

 

There have also been posts on Russian Telegram channels that these people aren't being allowed entry into Russia, even with their new passports.  There were big queues at the border crossings in Kharkiv.  I don't doubt for a second that Russia will happily abandon all these collaborators to their fate.  It's a way off but I wouldn't be particularly surprised if the same thing happened to Pushilin et al.

[welshbairn]

29 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Sanctions news

 

 

I remember Lukashenko offering to replace western microelectronics with Belarusian products, with the caveat that their microcircuits might have to be "slightly larger". 

https://euroradio.fm/ru/zastryali-v-devyanostykh-pochemu-proryva-v-belorusskoy-mikroelektronike-ne-budet

[dorlomin]

8 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

The sensible thing to do would be for Russia to withdraw their troops in Kherson to positions more favourable for defense, ie across the river.  From what we've seen in the war though, this doesn't seem a likely outcome. 

That huge wide flank from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk looks undefendable. No great insight, everyone sees it and once broken it cuts the Russians in two. I bet that more than anywhere keeps the Russian generals awake at night. 

[Jacksgranda]

2 hours ago, TheScarf said:

Becoming much, much better at war would be a good starting point. 

Just need a better business plan, imho

[Dev]

5 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

That huge wide flank from Zaporizhzhia to Donetsk looks undefendable. No great insight, everyone sees it and once broken it cuts the Russians in two. I bet that more than anywhere keeps the Russian generals awake at night. 

This would leave Crimea and the Kerch bridge to the east as the only land link to Russia for the Russian military in the south i.e. Kherson thru Melitopol. A supply route to Crimea/Kherson from the Krasnodar/Rostov end of Russia (to the east of Crimea) or a mass evacuation route from Crimea across that bridge looks to be extremely risky and vulnerable to attack.

Where would the Russian Navy currently based in the Crimea be able to escape to if they are eventually pushed out?

[Michael W]

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