Russian invasion of Ukraine

[alta-pete]

First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton  (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. 

My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? 

[Sergeant Wilson]

7 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton  (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. 

My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? 

Are you forgetting anyone?

 

 

@ICTChris I think that's everyone now.

[Dev]

4 minutes ago, alta-pete said:

First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton  (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. 

My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? 

If the Ukraine's end game is to recover all of its' pre 2014 territory then there will be the need to consolidate any gains as they may come along. Presumably there will be set-backs, territorially, but this is why the West must continue to support Ukraine, and must do so until the end of this invasion. Failure to do that sends out a signal to Russia that it can do just as it likes - as in Georgia and Crimea. There's no alternative but to stand up to bullies as the alternative will only be worse for the future, not just of the Ukraine but elsewhere in e.g. the Baltic region etc.

[Hillonearth]

[TheScarf]

Russia should stick to the old football hooliganism and leave the war stuff to the pros.

[Sergeant Wilson]

3 minutes ago, TheScarf said:

Russia should stick to the old football hooliganism and leave the war stuff to the pros.

I feel a bit daft having let so many of them push in front of me at buffets now.

[alta-pete]

1 hour ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Are you forgetting anyone?

 

 

@ICTChris I think that's everyone now.

Chris's omission wasn't meant as any sort a slight - he's a prolific well informed poster across many subjects. I get the impression he's a bit of a newshound/ (diligent) research type (again, no slight intended!) while the the three chaps I mentioned seem to have what looks like deep and long built knowledge on the topic.  

[TxRover]

1 hour ago, alta-pete said:

My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? 

That is a universal issue with rapid offensives, the need to consolidate the gains and establish a viable defensive structure in the gained/recovered area, as Russia found out here. The military situation in Ukraine now becomes quite interesting, as until now there was really almost no area of joint Ukrainian/Russian border that remained at its notional position.

The border between the two is, in the area to the east of Belarus, comprised of a confusing and jagged collection of lines drawn on “rivers” that are at best the militarily defensive equivalent of a ditch, and tied together by unfortified farmlands and tree lines. Just how the two combatants deal with this matter will be indicative of the on going Russian intentions. If the Russians dig in behind the pre-war border, and restrain themselves from lobbing artillery rounds and small arms fire across the border into Ukraine, the Ukrainians might content themselves with the same, it would effectively reduce their defensive worries. However, a close watch would have to be kept to ensure that the Russians were not preparing a new offensive through that area.

If the Russians remain combative in the area, we might see the Ukrainians driving a few miles into Russia at various points to establish better defensive positions in unpopulated and thinly populated areas. This would be a clear challenge to Putin, and his messaging, and is a risky choice.

I’m also surprised at the lack of reports of booby-trapped equipment mixed in among the spoils the Ukrainians are getting from the retreating Russians and their allies. It suggests a true rout took place, as the Ukrainian messaging has conveyed, vice the Russian “realignment/pull back” bullshit. While the equipment gained in this operation is useful, the pieces previously operated by the militias and reserve units are likely only useful to be salvaged for spares, as the overall readiness levels of Russian equipment is been woeful and these units will have had the least maintenance and repair support during and before the special operation.

Finally, this likely has completed the compromise of Russian communications in the theatre of operations. The loss of advanced communications gear in some of the frontline unit tanks and vehicles, plus that abandoned by retreating infantry/police/militia units has probably completed the inventory of all Russian communications methods, if any were still unknown. A large part of the Ukrainian success has been driven by signals intelligence, and the inability of the Russians and their allies to establish and maintain secure communications has massively degraded their ability to respond and react, let alone attack effectively. This will have knock on impacts in the Southern theatre.

With regard to the Ukrainian forces being “a long way forward of their established lines”, the Russian supply lines are still significantly longer than the Ukrainian lines in almost all theatres. With the loss of equipment, the attrition of the precision weapon (and dumb, for that matter) supply, and the increasing Ukrainian precision deep strike capacity, even the relatively short lines for the Russians in the 2014 controlled territory are no longer a secure resource. Unless the Russian military has heretofore unseen/unknown aviation and strike reserves that it feels it can commit without endangering its mission to defend Russia elsewhere, the Russian offensive actions in Ukraine are severely constrained.

[jagfox]

6 hours ago, alta-pete said:

First off, credit to @dorlomin @TxRover and @renton  (I am sure there are others but they seem prominent in my reading of this thread) for sharing their collective and clearly credible insight. Makes a refreshing change from other threads to have posters who clearly are/have been itk. 

My concern though - is this rout of RU something like a wave going out on a beach, only to wash more powerfully back up it when the UA forces are a long way forward of their established lines? 

@Sergeant Wilson is the only one with military experience...

[Billy Jean King]

[mention=4731]Sergeant Wilson[/mention] is the only one with military experience...

Surely you do a disservice to VT with that statement [emoji2]

[dorlomin]

There are rumours of refusals to deploy while other rumours are of being held back in case of civil unrest. Fair enough, use Rosgvardia OMON units as soldiers (Russian riot police) and use soldiers are riot police. 

. Its hard to parse these rumours and Ukraine are sticking their oar in to stir the shit. But it does seem as if the Kharkiv offensive marks a major shift in many Russians views of this war. 

[LongTimeLurker]

Meanwhile in Kherson if the Ukrainians are to be believed:

 

 

[dorlomin]

1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Meanwhile in Kherson if the Ukrainians are to be believed:

 

 

It was on Ukrainian TV

Some speculate it was some small units and the Ukrainians are fucking with Russians minds, knowing this will get back to them on Telegram. Others that they are in the shit and some are trying to get out alive. 

Its got to suck sweaty donkey balls being a Russian squaddie right now. And winter is coming.

 

[Dev]

Found this on Newsweek: Make of it what you will.

www.newsweek.com/ukraine-war-will-break-modern-russia-retired-us-general-1742159?piano_t=1

NEWS

Ukraine War Will 'Break Up' Modern Russia: Retired U.S. General

BY ZOE STROZEWSKI ON 9/12/22 AT 12:51 PM EDT

The ongoing war in Ukraine and its aftermath may result in the end of modern Russia as the world knows it, according to one retired U.S. general.

Speaking to Newsweek, Ben Hodges, who was the commanding general of United States Army Europe, stressed the importance of being prepared for the potential "break up" of Russia "as it looks today."

He listed four factors that he said lead him to believe that such a break up is feasible: the exposure of Russia's military as "corrupt" and not nearly as effective as it was regarded, trouble for Russia's economically important energy sector and defense industry, a shrinking Russian population, and "pervasive corruption" that will become unacceptable to Russian civilians paying the price for sanctions imposed in response to the Ukraine invasion.

"The combination of battlefield losses and the impact of sanctions on domestic Russia will make it very difficult for the Kremlin to sustain things," he said.

When Russian President Vladimir Putin launched his attack on Ukraine on February 24, some expected to see a speedy Russian victory within days. But fierce Ukrainian resistance subverted expectations on how the conflict would unfold, causing Russia's image as a superior military to crumble. The war has now stretched on for more than six months and marked its 200th day on Sunday, a time during which Western countries have vehemently criticized what Putin describes as his "special military operation" and imposed unprecedented sanctions on Russia.

Hodges said that the General Staff of the Armed Forces of Russia have seen "disastrous outcomes" due to four miscalculations they made upon entering Ukraine. The first is that the Kremlin believed that it had force advantage, and the second was that it thought Ukraine could be isolated from third party support, he explained.

Russia is reportedly facing manpower shortages and has been conducting a recruitment campaign and offering incentives in order to make up for the shortfall. Meanwhile, Ukraine has received assistance from various NATO and Western countries including the U.S., which last week announced its newest $675 million Ukraine security assistance package.

The other two of Russia's miscalculations are that it believed "the gain of destroying Ukraine would be worth any pain," such as sanctions, and that it would get the added bonus of being able to "break" NATO as well, according to Hodges.

"All four were obviously wrong," he said.

Kremlin spokesman Dmitry Peskov admitted while speaking to Russian-state media in June that the country's economic situation amid the war was "not easy." NATO, meanwhile, has stood behind Ukraine and actually stands to grow stronger as Sweden and Finland near membership.

Hodges said that Russia has four new strategic objectives in the war: reorganizing so it can see some semblance of victory and extract itself from the situation, fix its troubled economy and find new markets, ensure the survival of its regime, and rebuild to levels of strength from before the war.

"They assume we'll lose interest in the next few years so they'll plan to pick back up where they left off," he said, and added that this underlines the importance of Russia being "crushed now" so it doesn't have the opportunity to take additional aggressive action in the future.

When asked if Putin would still be in power in the future, Hodges responded that it's "hard to tell."

"He's spent the last 20 years making himself coup-proof and while I don't rule it out, I don't yet see the beginnings of an internal decision to remove him," he said.

Last year, the longtime Russian leader signed a law that could keep him in power until 2036. If that were to happen, Putin will hold the office for 24 consecutive years.

Newsweek reached out to the Kremlin for comment.

[Dev]

53 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Meanwhile in Kherson if the Ukrainians are to be believed:

 

 

I guess that, if any group can bring the Kremlin and its' supporters to heel it would be the military. If they turn against their political and Mafia type masters then it could get very interesting very quickly.

[Duszek]

8 hours ago, Dev said:

If the Ukraine's end game is to….

[LongTimeLurker]

This guy's attempt at pronouncing the names of Ukrainian cities is horrific but interesting to see how somebody who analyses stuff like this for a living simply didn't see something like the Kharkiv offensive coming:

Have to wonder what changes we'll see in NATO's approach once more people like him who help shape elite opinion start to believe firmly that the Ukrainians will win in the aftermath of what unfolded last week.

[MuckleMoo]

This guy's attempt at pronouncing the names of Ukrainian cities is horrific but interesting to see how somebody who analyses stuff like this for a living simply didn't see something like the Kharkiv offensive coming:
Have to wonder what changes we'll see in NATO's approach once more people like him who help shape elite opinion start to believe firmly that the Ukrainians will win in the aftermath of what unfolded last week.

I'm probably miles out here as I wouldn't even pretend to know what I'm talking about but wouldn't Ukraine be receiving pretty significant strategic assistance/guidance/planning, what ever you want to call it, from NATO or countries within NATO already. Is it possible that these latest tactical developments have at least been jointly orchestrated by Ukraine and the West?

[LongTimeLurker]

What NATO hasn't sent so far is western tanks and fighter jets. Instead Eastern European countries sent their old Warsaw Pact weaponry in exchange for receiving more modern western weaponry from the United States, Germany etc.

If the calculation starts to be that Ukraine will likely be able to regain its 1991 borders and deter Russia from ever trying something like this again with a bit more help on weaponry maybe that changes and they start to be viewed as a future NATO member rather than as a proxy to be used to give Vlad a good kicking on the way to some eventual territorial compromise.

What lies ahead is so radically different from conventional wisdom in late February that it probably is still very much a work in progress. People like the guy in the clip never believed we would reach a point where we would see what is unfolding now.

Edited September 12, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[jagfox]