Russian invasion of Ukraine

[ICTChris]

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

Wouldn't be surprised if this happens eventually given the predicament Russia is in with many of its best troops on the wrong side of the Dniepr with no bridges available:

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[deegee]

If I was leading Ukraine’s army or government, I’d be asking for repatriation of all the soldiers taken (from the siege of Mariupol, for example) as well as the many reported civilians moved out when the Russians invaded. 
 

Then I’d be seeking compensation for the destruction and repairs needed to rebuild cities, villages and schools etc.

Maybe after all that, I’d possibly consider sitting down and discussing a future amnesty and end of combat action against the Russians.

[Newbornbairn]

Sod it, keep going to Moscow.

[TxRover]

8 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Sod it, keep going to Moscow.

Driving to Moscow…in winter…in Russia…I seem to recall that doesn’t work so well.

[RossBFaeDundee]

8 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Sod it, keep going to Moscow.

Haud it there, Napoleon!

Started keeping up with this thread regularly again a few days ago, been a remarkable and enjoyable read seeing such a surge of momentum build for the Ukrainians. Hopefully they can keep this up, not even the craziest of Kremlin cronies can hide this disaster.

[MuckleMoo]

Have to admit I don't really know what is going on other than the fact that Ukraine appear to have reclaimed a sizable chunk of their country back. Are we looking at the beginning of the end here or is there a way back for Russia?

[DeeTillEhDeh]

The failed historian conspicuously absent on this thread.

The Sage of Inverclyde proving that he has as much knowledge as us other mere mortals.

[TxRover]

9 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

Have to admit I don't really know what is going on other than the fact that Ukraine appear to have reclaimed a sizable chunk of their country back. Are we looking at the beginning of the end here or is there a way back for Russia?

To steal a line, this is perhaps the end of the beginning, unless Putin gets the axe. The Russians have numerous routes back, most involving bringing tremendous forces to bear, but that would has serious issues for them. The Ukrainians are showing they can do this eventually under current conditions, and Russia has to decide to ante up or not.

[ICTChris]

https://www.telegraph.co.uk/world-news/2022/09/11/exclusive-russian-soldiers-literally-running-lives-chain-command/

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

[ICTChris]

6 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Those vehicles are designed to be amphibious but apparently sunk when they were driven into water.

[dorlomin]

If the stories of Russia being down to 30% of artillery ammunition stocks are correct then they have about 3 months of fighting left in them. The only big question here is that they buy from China. China has some old Soviet guns they keep around, 152mm but whether they are compatible with what Russia uses would be a major question and China has its own paranoias about India and the US. Russia cannot fight without lots of artillery, their units are light on infantry, even before the war, and rely on mass fire to do much of the work. 

There equipment was designed for a different country and a very different war. It was meant to be used as a huge army of reservists, perhaps up to 7 million being pulled into motor rifle divisions and to be used as a huge steamroller west wards. The idea was the sheer mass of 10 000s of tanks (I think they had more than 100 000 T-55s alone) covered by an enormous air force would crush NATO. 

But Russia of the 2020s was not the USSR of the 1970s. The equipment parks were full of rusted and un-maintained equipment. Politically they could not do the mass mobilisation of the Soviet era. So instead of having the small but very high tech army of a western power, they had a mid sized low tech army that we have seen fail outside Kyiv. 

What I think happened, and what experts hint at, is that they realised they could not take all of Ukraine so they would expand the Luhansk Republic and turn Kherson into a third Russian controlled republic. The plan was a summer offensive, take the losses but take the land then dig into defensive lines. The Ukrainians would have to attack where they would lose their much smaller amounts of tanks and IFVs (sort of mini tanks for carrying infantry) at which point Russia would win the attritional war and force Ukraine to negotiate. This seems to have been the April to September plan. 

Their offensive was much slower and much more costly than they hoped. It took ages for them to take towns like Sievierodonetsk. This cost them valuable infantry. 

Where we are now is that Eastern Europe really rallied to Ukraine, sending almost all the ex Soviet equipment they did not need on the spot. So Ukraines losses in heavy equipment were kept manageable. And in the spare time they could train up on older western equipment like the M113s (an old school box on wheels APC) and the new artillery systems that were being donated. This allowed them to inflict much heavier casualties that Russia expected and with the GPS guided, super accurate weapons like the Excalibur artillery round and the HIMARs rockets, they were able to pin point supply dumps and bridges in a way Russia had not plan to deal with. 

Where we are now is that the large donations of MRAPS (wheeled armoured vehicles) and APCs are now hitting the front lines. So Ukraine is in reasonably good shape in terms of heavy metal. (New Polish tanks, the PT  91 have been seen arriving, its a T 72 with modern night fighting equipment), The whole Russian theory of how to win the war has collapsed. Ukraine is getting stronger not weaker. 

So now Russia has a large force south of the Dnieper where HIMARs have blow the bridges and they are going to struggle to keep supplied. Their thin defenses in Kharkiv were blown away by an attack of 15 tanks some M113s and a chock load of MRAPs This has totally exploded Russias entire "theory of victory". Now they have none. More over Ukraine has lots more promised equipment arriving every day. And 10 000s of volunteers emerging from training into fighting units. 

Back to the artillery. Russia has the wrong kind of weapons for a static defensive war. They designed to move quickly in huge numbers. They are perhaps (I think likely) running low on the one thing they rely on, artillery. They are now finding that Ukrainians have managed to put US HARM missiles onto ex Soviet planes thus actively contest the skies. 

I honestly cannot see a Russian plan for victory, or even anything but a steady string of small defeats every couple of weeks forcing them back into their Feb 24 lines. That is provided they do not collapse. I struggle to see how they can be anything but pushed to the brink of defeat by the end of November without buying huge stocks from, well where other than China?

 

 

[Joey Jo Jo Junior Shabadoo]

[LongTimeLurker]

5 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

.....I struggle to see how they can be anything but pushed to the brink of defeat by the end of November without buying huge stocks from, well where other than China?

1000 Iranian drones that could take out HIMARS have been hyped up to be what the Americans would refer to as their Hail Mary pass, but it's not clear they were ever even delivered rather than a scare story floated by the pro-Israel lobby to try to scupper Iran's nuclear deal negotiations with the West.

[TxRover]

24 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

…cannot see a Russian plan for victory, or even anything but a steady string of small defeats every couple of weeks forcing them back into their Feb 24 lines. That is provided they do not collapse. I struggle to see how they can be anything but pushed to the brink of defeat by the end of November without buying huge stocks from, well where other than China?

North Korea. I expect the Norks have huge stores of Soviet era artillery shells, and will be quite happy to convert them into exchange, hard currency, petroleum products or foodstuffs.

[LongTimeLurker]

Significant if accurate, because this is one of Russia's main fortresses near Kherson: