Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

My biggest concern is that if there's a coup against Putin it'll be because he's too soft and he'll be replaced by somebody more hardline. That's where all the mutterings of discontent amongst the bigyuns are coming from, not the liberal pacifists. Flatten Kiev by whatever means necessary would be the first order.

[Dev]

25 minutes ago, MuckleMoo said:

Putin withdrawing his forces before nuking the place imo

Putin reminds me of a baby having a tantrum and  throwing his toy out the pram when he doesn't get his own way.

However, this little person has nukes to throw around. If he can't get his own way he may try to destroy as much of the Ukraine as he can and an "accident" or two (blamed on Ukraine, of course) at a nuclear power station may be more likely.

The two autonomous republics which he set up in eastern Ukraine will be a crucial test of the West's convictions to see off Putin/Russia. If needs be the Russians there need to be repatriated to their mother country once and for all as they will always be the excuse for further troubles in future Ukraine.

With the dire performance of the Russian war machine the boundaries of Ukraine may well be restored to pre 2014. Could there also be War reparations and loss of land by Russia (from within its' current internationally recognised boundaries)? Thinking of restoration of lands taken from Georgia but maybe other areas which have strong ethnic links to other nations?

The other thing which comes to mind and which could throw up all sorts of unknowns is that the "performance" of Putin and his military is being shown to be poor. Will China see an opportunity  to move into the mineral rich part of Russia i.e. Siberia? It doesn't look as though Russia could do much about it if China really wanted to grab that land. This would also isolate the Pacific side of Russia, making that vulnerable to a breakaway?

Speculation, I know, but truly scary times may be ahead unless Putin and his cronies implode. Even then, who would run Russia after that?  

Edited September 10, 2022 by Dev
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[doulikefish]

2 minutes ago, Dev said:

 

Speculation, I know, but truly scary times may be ahead unless Putin and his cronies implode. Even then, who would run Russia after that?  

Pussy riot imo

[LongTimeLurker]

This is moving from the sublime to the ridiculous:

 

Maybe somebody got confused between the Severodonetsk raion (local region and the next step down in local government terms from an oblast) that includes Kreminna and Lysychansk and the town itself. If true, must be sickening news for the families of all the Russian soldiers that died like flies taking this place. 

[Dev]

How many Russian soldiers etc were in the Izium region and what proportion of the main stream/regular Russian army would that be? Anyone know?

Taking them out of combat would be significant if this is what's happening.

[Karpaty Lviv]

ЗСУ

[Hillonearth]

16 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

This is moving from the sublime to the ridiculous:

 

Maybe somebody got confused between the Severodonetsk raion (local region and the next step down in local government terms from an oblast) that includes Kreminna and Lysychansk and the town itself. If true, must be sickening news for the families of all the Russian soldiers that died like flies taking this place. 

That's certainly what this sign says, but even this may have been overtaken by events...think this was earlier today, but there are now reports on Twitter of the Ukrainians entering both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk...to put that in perspective, if it's true they've advanced 70 miles east since they captured Izyum this morning.

[Bairnardo]

In history, when these sorts of leaders get overthrown, isn't it usually because the armed forces leadership have turned on them and the force the issue? I mean, even Putin is f**k all without his sword arm.... Could that be whats happening? The army leadership has told them to down tools? Some sort of fancy ruse is far fetched given the way its all gone so far.....

I guess its a bit far fetched to imagine Ukraine taking 10k POWs from the surrounded area, but how the f**k could Putin survive Ukraine parading thousands of young Russian soldiers....

[dorlomin]

20 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

In history, when these sorts of leaders get overthrown, isn't it usually because the armed forces leadership have turned on them and the force the issue? I mean, even Putin is f**k all without his sword arm.... Could that be whats happening? The army leadership has told them to down tools? Some sort of fancy ruse is far fetched given the way its all gone so far.....

I guess its a bit far fetched to imagine Ukraine taking 10k POWs from the surrounded area, but how the f**k could Putin survive Ukraine parading thousands of young Russian soldiers....

Many countries are military dictatorships. Russia is an intelligence service dictatorship. The former KGB and elements of the mafia run the country. Shoigu for example (Minster for Defence) is not great at his job, but he is not a Christian and not a Russian so is not seen as a threat to Putin and the others, it needs an Orthodox Russian to command the loyalty of the country. Who rules Russia is layers of smoke and mirrors that it is likely none of the actors, including even Putin really fully understand. In the west until the invasion it was assumed Putin was the oligarchs placeman. But since then it seems more that the Yeltsin era oligarchs were left in charge as sort of managers for their sectors, allowed to get filthy rich but prone to window cleaning accidents if they got into politics. Those oligarchs are the ex USSR factory managers, economics etc who made out like bandits in the Yeltsin years, though many to most have strong connections to elements of the mafia. Some of the mafia also got into the get filthy rich action and get lumped in with being oligarchs but they are a different type.

But it seems a cadre of former KGB people who had connections with USSR era street mafia were able to get themselves into politics and effect a coup at the end of the 90s. These also got filthy rich and get called oligrachs, but again are a different political class with very different access to power compared to the others. 

These tend to be hyper patriotic, hyper orthodox Christian and incredibly suspicious. They seem to have strongly neutered the army.. They promoted people for loyalty to the regime and who would not pose a threat. Its very likely the army is near zero threat. The threat to Putin comes from the other ex KGB types around him. 

 

Edited, Id like to emphasise, this is a very opaque system and I am skimming over what little I understand of it. 

 

Edited September 10, 2022 by dorlomin

[LongTimeLurker]

17 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

...I guess its a bit far fetched to imagine Ukraine taking 10k POWs from the surrounded area, but how the f**k could Putin survive Ukraine parading thousands of young Russian soldiers....

Think a lot of the rumoured 10k+ soldiers at Izium probably got away because they had at least a day or so when it was already obvious what was about to happen and there were still viable escape routes in place.

[jagfox]

 

[Newbornbairn]

22 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

In history, when these sorts of leaders get overthrown, isn't it usually because the armed forces leadership have turned on them and the force the issue? I mean, even Putin is f**k all without his sword arm.... Could that be whats happening? The army leadership has told them to down tools? Some sort of fancy ruse is far fetched given the way its all gone so far.....

I guess its a bit far fetched to imagine Ukraine taking 10k POWs from the surrounded area, but how the f**k could Putin survive Ukraine parading thousands of young Russian soldiers....

Even better, hand the PoWs over to Poland for "safe keeping". Maybe near Katyn?

[jagfox]

Vladimir has been opening a new Ferris Wheel and boring young athletes with old stories. 

 

 

[Hillonearth]

11 minutes ago, jagfox said:

Vladimir has been opening a new Ferris Wheel and boring young athletes with old stories. 

 

 

Just to top off his weekend, the ferris wheel only lasted about half an hour before it broke down.

[jagfox]

 

 

[Karpaty Lviv]

1 hour ago, Hillonearth said:

That's certainly what this sign says, but even this may have been overtaken by events...think this was earlier today, but there are now reports on Twitter of the Ukrainians entering both Severodonetsk and Lysychansk...to put that in perspective, if it's true they've advanced 70 miles east since they captured Izyum this morning.

Let’s hope so

[sophia]

44 minutes ago, Hillonearth said:

Just to top off his weekend, the ferris wheel only lasted about half an hour before it broke down.

Poor wee Vlad, not quite as vigorous as he'd like to imagine 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[dorlomin]

This week Ukraine has shifted from showing courage in defence to skill in attack. They have shown the capacity to engage in multi unit combined arms offensive operations and succeed. 

They have been able to grind out assaults before. But this week they have shown the ability to line up echelons, smash a defensive crust and exploit the rear areas. 

Russia has also show its maxed out on in theatre capacity. I guess, they will be flying in the troops from Vostok 2022 shortly. (a big military exercise they are holding with China and India) 

I think the past few days has been very significant. It signals a change in the direction and tempo of operations. 

Edited September 10, 2022 by dorlomin

[ICTChris]