Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

This was the first relatively big town Ukraine lost in the Donbas after Vlad ordered the retreat from Kiev and the north and a focus on securing the territory of the two breakaway republics he had recognised.

The Ukrainians would probably need to secure that area first before it would be sensible to make a move for Svatove further north. When I posted about Svatove this morning I didn't think it would enter the mainstream discourse anything like this quickly but was something that would still be a week or two away minimum.

[Dawson Park Boy]

Appreciate all the work folks have put Into this thread.

What fascinates me is how all the wives, girlfriends and mothers are reacting to all the casualties?

Apart from the deaths there must be a huge number of wounded back in Russia being treated.

Any info in how this is all going down?

[ICTChris]

It also seems that this has been another giant intelligence failure by Russia.  They've been pushed out of hundreds, maybe thousands of square kilometers  and didn't realise in time that the Ukrainians were building up forces.  A massive failure of military intelligence.

One of the mad nationalist Z-nutter Telegram channels had it right - this is the result of 30 years of corruption not allowing Russia to build a competent modern military.  The successes they've had have been based on annihiliating areas with artillery and then conquering the ruins.  

[TxRover]

The problem the Russians have in the north-west is the exposure of their positions further south to significantly interdicted supply lines and exposure to be cut off if the Ukrainians can leverage the current offensive into a pincer south…and south is where the main roads they have been capturing go. There is a very real chance that a drive north from just east of Izyum will end up as the closing jaws to trap 10,000+ Russia and vassal troops.

There is little to be gained by the Ukrainians driving north/northeast from Kupiansk, as the Russian supply lines are compact and intact in that area, and it is all very close to the Russian border. The Russians, on the other hand, must use competent troops to hold these lines, as the police/militia units previously used in the area have proven unreliable in that role. While a Ukrainian offensive into that area is unlikely, it is worth noting that Belgorod was Ukrainian at one time (most recently ~1918), and there are some sympathies in the area other than Russian. In other border areas to the south and east, the sentiments are more clearly pro-Russian.

Given the sparse population and limited industrial base, it is questionable if the Russians would actually spare the troops to protect these “liberated” areas of northeastern Ukraine rather than falling back to the 2014 lines, which would significantly reduce their defensive lines, as long as Russia itself remains inviolate by the Ukrainians, and free a large amount of troops for duties elsewhere. The Ukraine/Russia border itself is likely still sufficiently fortified, at least on the Russian side,  to allow both sides to maintain minimal troops with the knowledge that any buildup would be easily noticed.

 

P.S. If the report of UKR forces in Kreminna is correct, and also the Svatove report of UKR forces, it only takes a short push by both north and south along the P66 highway to link the jaws of the pincer, and cutoff a significant Russian force.

[Bairnardo]

What is the swing in terms of strength here. How much value to Ukraine is there in the Russian kit left behind? Is it symbolic or can they really use that kit? They are already getting loads from the West, presumably more every day. 

[LongTimeLurker]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

It also seems that this has been another giant intelligence failure by Russia....

There has been talk of Putin bypassing the army chain of command and providing the orders for units to follow Adolf at the end of WWII style. Have seen the less than fully PC word "moron" used in one of the more lucid pro-Russian twitter accounts to describe him after what he appears to have pushed for in Kherson, i.e. move 20,000+ of his best troops over a very wide river when his enemy has demonstrated the capacity to destroy all the bridges over it.

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Appreciate all the work folks have put Into this thread.

What fascinates me is how all the wives, girlfriends and mothers are reacting to all the casualties?

Apart from the deaths there must be a huge number of wounded back in Russia being treated.

Any info in how this is all going down?

It's hard to organise any NGO in Russia due to the restrictions that have been imposed in Russia in recent years.  During the Chechen Wars, particularly the First Chechen war, soldiers mothers formed campaigns against the war and were an important political force.  Even in the early years of Putin's rule they put pressure on the regime - many of the parents of the children murdered in the Beslan siege also heavily criticised the authorities response and brought actions against the state.  This has been reduced by the crackdowns on the oppostion,. which have only increased since the war broke out.  Also, the soldiers tend to be from poorer, outer republics rather then the more political influential areas around Moscow, St Petersburg etc. 

Another factor is that many LNR / DNR soldiers have been used as front line troops and have taken the heaviest casualties - they aren't Russian citizens so can be used as cannon fodder.  Pretty much all the Russian Army proper troops are professionals - if thousands of conscripts were dying, as happened in the First Chechen war, then I think there would more open criticism.

There have been murmurings on Russian social media about the losses but it's hard to turn that into a movement.

[Sergeant Wilson]

9 minutes ago, Dawson Park Boy said:

Appreciate all the work folks have put Into this thread.

What fascinates me is how all the wives, girlfriends are reacting

Have you seen who posts, they don't  have....

 

You mean in Russia, don't  you?

[LongTimeLurker]

This map shows quite nicely why they might want to move quickly to Kreminna:

 

[renton]

6 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

What is the swing in terms of strength here. How much value to Ukraine is there in the Russian kit left behind? Is it symbolic or can they really use that kit? They are already getting loads from the West, presumably more every day. 

Ukraine has a lot of pre-existing Soviet 122 and 152mm artillery pieces they haven't been able to use much for months. Recent develops put that kit into play.

[TxRover]

3 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

What is the swing in terms of strength here. How much value to Ukraine is there in the Russian kit left behind? Is it symbolic or can they really use that kit? They are already getting loads from the West, presumably more every day. 

Huge value, especially for relatively modern tanks and equipment. There are several ways this helps:

- Ability to salvage and use recovered units in second level units and reserves.

- Ability to scavenge replacement parts from abandoned equipment for some of their equipment.

- Value as items delivered to the West for analysis and evaluation…especially true for communications and weapon systems.

- Attrition of Russian war power, as an abandoned T-90 would have to be replaced by something less capable.

[ICTChris]

14 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Have you seen who posts, they don't  have....

 

You mean in Russia, don't  you?

[ICTChris]

 

Appears to be hanging on the redefintion of the SMO to encompas the Donbas, updated by Shiogu in April after the failure to seize Kyiv.

The head of the Kharkiv occupation administration has said for people to cross over to Russia.  Seems like all of Kharkiv Oblast is going to be goodwill gestured.

[ICTChris]

Here is the head of the DNR giving an update. While being driven at high speed. Hmm.

 

[Sergeant Wilson]

4 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Here is the head of the DNR giving an update. While being driven at high speed. Hmm.

 

Penis?

He must've had Hell at school.

[LongTimeLurker]

Things might also be starting to unravel in Kherson oblast. The Ukrainians have been trying and failing to take this village for many weeks:

The road you can maybe just about make out in the middle of the map is the Russian's main supply line to a long string of small towns further north and the probable reason why the Russians were so keen to hold on to this place.

[doulikefish]

Russians seem to be in full on get out of Ukraine mode going by reports as always though when things are changing this rapid a lot is unconfirmed 

[welshbairn]

Quote

MOSCOW, September 10. /TASS/. The Russian troops stationed at Balakleya and Izyum have been regrouped and redeployed to the Donetsk direction in order to step up efforts there, Russian Defense Ministry Spokesman Igor Konashenkov told reporters on Saturday.

"In order to achieve the declared goals of the special military operation for the liberation of Donbass, it was decided to regroup the Russian forces stationed near Balakleya and Izyum to boost efforts in the Donetsk direction," Konashenkov said.

According to the Russian Defense Ministry spokesman, for that purpose, an operation of reorganizing and redeploying the Izyum-Balakleya grouping to the Donetsk People’s Republic (DPR) has been carried out in the past three days. Simultaneously, distractive and demonstration activates indicating troops’ real actions were taken.

"A powerful fire attack, with the air force, missile and artillery troops engaged, was conducted against the enemy to prevent harm to Russian troops," he added.

On Friday, the Russian Defense Ministry released a video showing Russian troops’ redeployment to the Kharkov direction. Footage features a military convoy consisting of BTR-82A armored personnel carriers and D-20 towed gun-howitzers. Besides the Z and V symbols, a new symbol - a circle inscribed in a triangle - painted on military vehicles can be seen in the video.

https://tass.com/defense/1505807

[Hillonearth]

20 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

Appears to be hanging on the redefintion of the SMO to encompas the Donbas, updated by Shiogu in April after the failure to seize Kyiv.

The head of the Kharkiv occupation administration has said for people to cross over to Russia.  Seems like all of Kharkiv Oblast is going to be goodwill gestured.

Turning into a Special Military Humiliation it would appear.

[MuckleMoo]

Putin withdrawing his forces before nuking the place imo