Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Will be interesting to see what this amount to:

given how long it has been hyped up as being imminent for.

[ICTChris]

Apparently HIMARs strikes are now being used on the front lines in Kherson, which is different to how they’ve been deployed so far.

We’ve heard stuff like this before. A large scale counter offensive will be very difficult for Ukraine to succeed at and will require them to do things they haven’t had to do as yet in the conflict.

[ICTChris]

Kherson collaborator killed.

 

 

Edited August 29, 2022 by ICTChris

[highlandcowden]

On 28/08/2022 at 15:56, Detournement said:

Unlike Ukranians who respawn. 

deary me,a low even for you

[SweeperDee]

Kherson collaborator killed.
 
 

Although a very important resource, being the man in charge of grain reminds me of the joke in The Thick of It about the department for counting the moon.

[Detournement]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Kherson collaborator killed.

 

 

GIven that Zelensky signed a law that means anyone who takes food from Russia is an official colloborator I doubt the local populations in Russia controlled areas will be too keen to see the AFU and the Neo Nazi paramilitaries back in their towns and cities at any point.

Edited August 29, 2022 by Detournement

[Detournement]

17 minutes ago, highlandcowden said:

deary me,a low even for you

My point was aimed at people who get very excited at news of dead Russians but seem completely disinterested in Ukrainian casualties.

[dorlomin]

The Russian forces west of the Dnieper could find their morale collapsing quickly. There are not a lot of crossing points, that makes soldiers skittish when rumours  of set backs and retreats spread. Infantry lives on rumours. Its one of those situations where the difference between it being a nothing burger and a rout could be the right reinforcements to the right place with a few hours either way. 

But if soldiers start thinking its a race for the exits then no will on Earth can stop them. 

[welshbairn]

8 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

The Russian forces west of the Dnieper could find their morale collapsing quickly. There are not a lot of crossing points, that makes soldiers skittish when rumours  of set backs and retreats spread. Infantry lives on rumours. Its one of those situations where the difference between it being a nothing burger and a rout could be the right reinforcements to the right place with a few hours either way. 

But if soldiers start thinking its a race for the exits then no will on Earth can stop them. 

Kherson's situation looks horribly like Stalingrad's, Russians with their backs to the river and told to fight to the last man. Ukraine can't use Russian tactics and flatten it like Mariupol, they're reliant on the Russians retreating rather than digging in.  Let's hope they run.

Edited August 29, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

24 minutes ago, dorlomin said:

The Russian forces west of the Dnieper could find their morale collapsing quickly. There are not a lot of crossing points, that makes soldiers skittish when rumours  of set backs and retreats spread. Infantry lives on rumours. Its one of those situations where the difference between it being a nothing burger and a rout could be the right reinforcements to the right place with a few hours either way. 

But if soldiers start thinking its a race for the exits then no will on Earth can stop them. 

One thing that both sides have done well in the war is retreat, strange as that might sound. Even though they were clearly defeated in the North around Kyiv the Russian withdrawal was not a rout, they cleared out in an organised manner. The same is true of the Ukrainian withdrawal from some of the pockets that got isolated in the Russian advances of the Donbas - they withdrew from Severodonetsk but did so in an organised manner. So I’d suggest if the Russians want to withdraw they will probably be able to do it - although no two situations are the same.

16 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Kherson's situation looks horribly like Stalingrad's, Russians with their backs to the river and told to fight to the last man. Ukraine can't use Russian tactics and flatten it like Mariupol, they're reliant on the Russians retreating rather than digging in.  Let's hope they run.

I’m don’t think the Russian Army would be told to fight the way the Soviet and then Germans were at Stalingrad. I don’t know if they could do it even if they were.

 

[welshbairn]

27 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

 

I’m don’t think the Russian Army would be told to fight the way the Soviet and then Germans were at Stalingrad. I don’t know if they could do it even if they were.

 

The Ukrainians in Mariupol pretty much did, I don't imagine the last surrendered survivors are having much of a time, if they're still around.

[ICTChris]

2 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

The Ukrainians in Mariupol pretty much did, I don't imagine the last surrendered survivors are having much of a time, if they're still around.

I think the circumstances are a bit different - I can’t see it happening in Kherson.

Some analysis I’ve read thinks Ukraine has started this offensive too soon, maybe driven by material concerns. I guess there’s never a perfect time for anything but it could be a difficult road ahead for Ukraine to make significant gains.

[welshbairn]

12 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

I think the circumstances are a bit different - I can’t see it happening in Kherson.

Some analysis I’ve read thinks Ukraine has started this offensive too soon, maybe driven by material concerns. I guess there’s never a perfect time for anything but it could be a difficult road ahead for Ukraine to make significant gains.

I guess they might be thinking they need to show some progress to keep public support in the West while inflation kicks in.

[Newbornbairn]

2 hours ago, dorlomin said:

The Russian forces west of the Dnieper could find their morale collapsing quickly. There are not a lot of crossing points, that makes soldiers skittish when rumours  of set backs and retreats spread. Infantry lives on rumours. Its one of those situations where the difference between it being a nothing burger and a rout could be the right reinforcements to the right place with a few hours either way. 

But if soldiers start thinking its a race for the exits then no will on Earth can stop them. 

That's why the Chechens have been positioned on the other side of the river - to discourage retreat. 

[moses1924]

Never really understood what makes someone decide to become a collaborator, as seen a few times in this thread it doesnt generally end well, is the short term power trip really worth the risk?

[DiegoDiego]

Never really understood what makes someone decide to become a collaborator, as seen a few times in this thread it doesnt generally end well

There's some serious selection bias going on though. I'm sure many are doing fine.

[dirty dingus]

The footage of Kazaks telling Russian tourists to GTF with the fascist Z on their vehicles as they come on holiday is a joy to watch. Sad that so many Russians are down the rabbit hole but good to see normal Kazaks not accepting their towel on the sun loungers bravado.

[ICTChris]

18 minutes ago, moses1924 said:

Never really understood what makes someone decide to become a collaborator, as seen a few times in this thread it doesnt generally end well, is the short term power trip really worth the risk?

There are always plenty up for doing it.

I wonder which P&Bers would be collaborators if Scotland were invaded by an occupying force? 

[welshbairn]

I'm sure there would have been plenty been lining up here to work for the Nazis if the Germans had occupied us. I'd have rounded up golfers before the invasion as a precaution.

Edited August 29, 2022 by welshbairn

[ICTChris]

1 minute ago, dirty dingus said:

The footage of Kazaks telling Russian tourists to GTF with the fascist Z on their vehicles as they come on holiday is a joy to watch. Sad that so many Russians are down the rabbit hole but good to see normal Kazaks not accepting their towel on the sun loungers bravado.

A holiday in Kazakhstan sounds intriguing though. What are the tourist attractions there?