Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

Think two targets in Crimea have probably had a visit from ballistic missiles this morning although this guy favours the partisan sabotage theory and may turn out to be right:

 

My understanding is bridges have been taken out prior to this on the two railways out of Crimea into the rest of occupied southern Ukraine and there's no way to send trains west from Donetsk because the frontlines are too close in Donetsk oblast so the Ukrainians appear to be systematically taking out Russian logistics. 

Edited August 16, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[LongTimeLurker]

 

 

[ICTChris]

Not a chance that I would be sitting filming an exploding arms dump about a mile away.  Admirable committment to #content from the lads who took that video.

[vikingTON]

20 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Sorry, but since when has geopolitics been as black and white as 'those guys invited those guys to help with this thing, so they're all best buddies now'? 

Would Georgia's government legitimately invite Russian troops in to keep the peace in Tbilisi? Of course not.

The Kazakh request wasn't some sort of Warsaw Pact 'friendly assistance' either - the government wanted heavies and asked Putin to provide them, just as Belarus did the previous year. You do not do this if the geopolitical relationship between the two countries (or at least leaders) doesn't include a significant degree of trust. 

Quote

Georgia is a far more obvious target - we all remember the invasion of 2008 - but a psychopathic dictator such as Putin, determined to secure his place in the pantheon of psychopathic Russian dictators, will not have ruled the Central Asian nations out of the equation. Surely. 

I agree. But the original claim was that the Kazakhs were next, which does not at all follow from a Russian invasion of Ukraine.

Tbilisi's government has every right to be afraid, given its fraught relationship with Putin and the wider readjustments within the Caucasus region. The Russians rolling tanks into Astana though - instead of trying to turn a friendly regime into an effective client state - is just as ridiculous as the idea that they would just continue rolling straight through Ukraine and into NATO's easternmost states. 

Putin's geopolitical aim is to rebuild Russia's sphere of influence to at least the pre-1991 Soviet frontier. That's not in itself the act of a psychopath, and when he leaves the next Russian leader who isn't looking into a bottle of vodka like Yeltsin will have similar objectives. Even the 'liberal' opposition leaders. 

[Newbornbairn]

More about the Amnesty report that Field Marshall VT drooled over -

 

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/13/amnesty-ukraine-civilians-at-risk-why-i-quit/

 

 

 

[HeWhoWalksBehindTheRows]

On 13/08/2022 at 22:12, steve55 said:

Another hero from Ukraine:

 

 

Dr Snekotron would be a great name for a DJ from Inverness, or a teuchter Autobot.

[vikingTON]

3 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

More about the Amnesty report that Field Marshall VT drooled over -

https://www.washingtonpost.com/opinions/2022/08/13/amnesty-ukraine-civilians-at-risk-why-i-quit/

I would be surprised if a Ukrainian wasn't quitting Amnesty in a tantrum, now that breaches in the pesky laws of war are being highlighted on both sides of the conflict. A large number of people in the UK can't even accept that 'our boys' should be prosecuted for murdering civilians fully 50 years ago - whereas this is a hot blooded situation. 

It doesn't make her 'analysis' for a right-wing rag like the WP correct though. 

Edited August 16, 2022 by vikingTON

[Jacksgranda]

6 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think two targets in Crimea have probably had a visit from ballistic missiles this morning although this guy favours the partisan sabotage theory and may turn out to be right:

 

My understanding is bridges have been taken out prior to this on the two railways out of Crimea into the rest of occupied southern Ukraine and there's no way to send trains west from Donetsk because the frontlines are too close in Donetsk oblast so the Ukrainians appear to be systematically taking out Russian logistics. 

That would be good - and smart.

[ICTChris]

One of the guys who runs a popular Wagner affiliated Telegram channel has been confirmed as having been killed in the HIMARs attack on Popansa.

Translation:

 

Allegedly (and I guess we'll never really know) the channel posted this photo, handily featuring the address of the base visible.

[DiegoDiego]

The army of Odin? I assumed they would be orthodox, are they playing up Varangian angle?

[TxRover]

7 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think two targets in Crimea have probably had a visit from ballistic missiles this morning although this guy favours the partisan sabotage theory and may turn out to be right:

The problem is there is little of a ballistic nature in any inventory that Ukraine could have acquired with suitable range AND accuracy to hit these Crimean targets. The relative risk of handing a 200+ mile, ballistic missile with GPS accuracy to a nation at war with Russia and with areas that would put significant areas of Russia under threat is sorta serious.

Unless someone snuck a few ATACMS into a delivery, the primary option for long-range strike would be a Neptune cruise missile with a locally developed land-attack guidance system…and even that is capped at about 170 miles.

[LongTimeLurker]

There is some speculation that the Ukrainians have developed their own system with funding from the Saudis:

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Hrim-2

 

[welshbairn]

30 minutes ago, TxRover said:

The problem is there is little of a ballistic nature in any inventory that Ukraine could have acquired with suitable range AND accuracy to hit these Crimean targets. The relative risk of handing a 200+ mile, ballistic missile with GPS accuracy to a nation at war with Russia and with areas that would put significant areas of Russia under threat is sorta serious.

Unless someone snuck a few ATACMS into a delivery, the primary option for long-range strike would be a Neptune cruise missile with a locally developed land-attack guidance system…and even that is capped at about 170 miles.

My knowledge of this is zero, but is it possible a less accurate but long range rocket system could be combined with special forces guiding the attack with laser or radio targeting?

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

My knowledge of this is zero, 

It's not stopping anyone else.

[LongTimeLurker]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

My knowledge of this is zero, but is it possible a less accurate but long range rocket system could be combined with special forces guiding the attack with laser or radio targeting?

Similarly clueless but inquiring minds like to know. I think if this info is accurate they would need GPS to be the guidance rather than some guy in a hedge with a laser pointer:

 

Edited August 16, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[ICTChris]

38,000 cars cross the Kerch Bridge to Russia today, a single day record.

[Todd_is_God]

14 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

38,000 cars cross the Kerch Bridge to Russia today, a single day record.

Russian home?

[TxRover]

10 hours ago, welshbairn said:

My knowledge of this is zero, but is it possible a less accurate but long range rocket system could be combined with special forces guiding the attack with laser or radio targeting?

Laser guidance is generally bombs or air-launched (and occasionally land-launched) missiles, and not generally effective for ballistic (fast) weapons returning to earth. Radio targeting would require homing on a target signal…why plant a transmitter (that can be detected) instead of a small explosive? In either case, terminal fine-scale corrections are nearly impossible for ballistic trajectory warheads due to speeds and atmospheric resistance. The rapid progress of the warhead renders even small control surface deflections as hugely magnified, the computing power required to anticipate those impacts is huge, and the temperatures that any control surfaces would reach require extremely advanced metallurgical processes well beyond most countries. Russia has stated it has some warheads with limited maneuverability in the terminal phase, but even that hasn’t been confirmed and was reported as a fixed “juke” program to make the interception of the warheads more difficult.

Edit: Saw the suggestion of the Hrim-2 SRBM, and with its lower trajectory and slower descent speed, GPS guidance would be plausible, but jamming might be an issue. The Russians have been playing with GPS spoofing for a decade plus now.

Edited August 17, 2022 by TxRover

[ICTChris]

I saw someone suggest that the explosions the other day were due to a small quadrocopter drone flying over the facility and dropping an explosive in.

[The Other Foot]

Sky News reporting it was Ukrainian sabotage groups within Crimea:

 

I think what is clear is there is at least one - if not two - Ukrainian special forces groups operating with Ukraine sympathisers in Crimea to disrupt Russian operations

No mention of specific weapons though. 

Edited August 17, 2022 by The Other Foot