Russian invasion of Ukraine

[LongTimeLurker]

57 minutes ago, Jacksgranda said:

The other option is to let Russia win. (The whole of Ukraine, not just the bits they have seized previously and the now conquered bits.)

Anbody who claims Putin wasn't after this initially needs to explain what Russian VDV troops were doing at Hostomel airport on day one if it wasn't about rapidly forcing Kyiv to capitulate and replacing Zelensky with a pro-Moscow puppet.

Waltzing into Lviv only looks farfetched now because the Russians were not able to surround Kyiv, Kharkiv and Odesa in the first week and block off the bulk of Ukrainian armed forces from resupply in the Donbas and because thanks to that Lukashenko got cold feet where Belarus participating was concerned.

The reason all that didn't happen and we are where we are now is because Ukrainian territorial reservists fought much harder and more effectively even in what had been pro-Yanukovych mainly Russian speaking parts of the country than Western military experts thought they would.

Edited August 14, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[Stellaboz]

12 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

12 hours ago, Stellaboz said:

Bahumet ffs

Actually, it was Bahamut.

Damnit! I knew it looked wrong

[DiegoDiego]

The reason all that didn't happen and we are where we are now is because Ukrainian territorial reservists fought much harder and more effectively even in what had been pro-Yanukovych mainly Russian speaking parts of the country than Western military experts thought they would.

The main reason that didn't happen is because the Russian military turned out to have Falkirk levels of competence.

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, Jacksgranda said:

The other option is to let Russia win. (The whole of Ukraine, not just the bits they have seized previously and the now conquered bits.)

This is a bit of a silly, lazy point.

Ukraine on its own proved competent enough to stop Russian forces advancing further than they did. However they were not capable of pushing them out of Ukraine (and still appear not to be, despite having tens of billions of weapons handed to them by Western leaders).

Without Western support, the only option available to Ukraine would have been to seek a peace treaty that would have gotten both them and the Russians out of a war of attrition neither appear capable of winning.

Instead, sanctions and weapons have allowed Zelenskyy to maintain indefinitely the charade that Ukraine can win this war (thus removing the incentive to seek peace).

[LongTimeLurker]

Think you are about two or three months behind the times with that line of argument. The capacity of the Russian armed forces to keep fighting this war isn't infinite and HIMARS arriving has blunted their ability to bring massively superior artillery to bear in key portions of the front.

NATO's ability to resupply Ukraine at this point and off into the future is greater than Russia's ability to replenish its arms stocks, if countries like China don't help them as has been the case so far. That means Ukraine can win if NATO decides to go for it.

The only problem for Ukraine is that NATO almost certainly didn't expect to reach this state of affairs so it remains to be seen if they actually will because something something red line something something tactical nuclear device.

[beefybake]

33 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

This is a bit of a silly, lazy point.

Ukraine on its own proved competent enough to stop Russian forces advancing further than they did. However they were not capable of pushing them out of Ukraine (and still appear not to be, despite having tens of billions of weapons handed to them by Western leaders).

Without Western support, the only option available to Ukraine would have been to seek a peace treaty that would have gotten both them and the Russians out of a war of attrition neither appear capable of winning.

Instead, sanctions and weapons have allowed Zelenskyy to maintain indefinitely the charade that Ukraine can win this war (thus removing the incentive to seek peace).

Actually, the silliness and laziness are mostly all yours..

Anyone with even the faintest knowedge of history, and an upward curve of reading Putin's previous utterances can deduce

that next on his list would be Latvia, Lithuania , Estonia. And no wonder that Poland, with a history of slaughter at the hands of Fascism, and Communism.,.

has been so active in it's support for Ukraine.

 

[Todd_is_God]

7 minutes ago, beefybake said:

Actually, the silliness and laziness are mostly all yours..

Anyone with even the faintest knowedge of history, and an upward curve of reading Putin's previous utterances can deduce

that next on his list would be Latvia, Lithuania , Estonia. And no wonder that Poland, with a history of slaughter at the hands of Fascism, and Communism.,.

has been so active in it's support for Ukraine.

 

Next on his list? To have a next you first need a first. Ukraine stopped Putin in his tracks on their own accord.

And let's be serious. Putin is not daft enough to invade a NATO member in the same way NATO members are not daft enough to directly intervene in Ukraine.

[The Other Foot]

Sure I read that Kazakh and Georgian governments had received word from Western intel that they were next in line. 
 

Georgia would be easy. But I’d imagine China would have something to say about the Russians taking a central Asian nation 

[Todd_is_God]

1 hour ago, The Other Foot said:

Sure I read that Kazakh and Georgian governments had received word from Western intel that they were next in line. 

Western intel famous, of course, for being spot on.

[The Other Foot]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Western intel famous, of course, for being spot on.

Depends which part of the west, I suppose 

[welshbairn]

4 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Western intel famous, of course, for being spot on.

They were spot on with the invasion of Ukraine, while Putin apologists on here were saying he would never do such a thing.

Edited August 14, 2022 by welshbairn

[vikingTON]

17 hours ago, beefybake said:

Actually, the silliness and laziness are mostly all yours..

Anyone with even the faintest knowedge of history, and an upward curve of reading Putin's previous utterances can deduce

that next on his list would be Latvia, Lithuania , Estonia. And no wonder that Poland, with a history of slaughter at the hands of Fascism, and Communism.,.

has been so active in it's support for Ukraine.

 

'We set our economy on fire and let you freeze because Poland is very paranoid about Russia' is unlikely to play well with the European public this winter. 

[vikingTON]

12 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Sure I read that Kazakh and Georgian governments had received word from Western intel that they were next in line. 

You mean the Kazakh government that literally invited in Russian forces to crush domestic unrest just this year?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/06/world/kazakhstan-protests

It's quite plausible that the Kremlin has a long-term vision of bringing at least some of the central Asian republics back into its orbit - any Russian leader worth their salt would.

But current Kazakh relations with Russia are a near polar opposite to the Georgian situation, so any reports that they're both next to fall display a complete ignorance of the region. 

[welshbairn]

14 hours ago, The Other Foot said:

Sure I read that Kazakh and Georgian governments had received word from Western intel that they were next in line. 
 

Georgia would be easy. But I’d imagine China would have something to say about the Russians taking a central Asian nation 

Putin's former stand in President Dmitry Medvedev hinted at it on social media, but later claimed his phone had been hacked.

[The Other Foot]

2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

Putin's former stand in President Dmitry Medvedev hinted at it on social media, but later claimed his phone had been hacked.

 

Might have been that, though I'm sure I saw it somewhere else. Quick Google there shows that Tokayev recently mentioned the possibility of Russian invading the Russo-dominated regions of Northern Kazakhstan.

 

4 hours ago, virginton said:

You mean the Kazakh government that literally invited in Russian forces to crush domestic unrest just this year?

https://www.nytimes.com/live/2022/01/06/world/kazakhstan-protests

It's quite plausible that the Kremlin has a long-term vision of bringing at least some of the central Asian republics back into its orbit - any Russian leader worth their salt would.

But current Kazakh relations with Russia are a near polar opposite to the Georgian situation, so any reports that they're both next to fall display a complete ignorance of the region. 

 

Sorry, but since when has geopolitics been as black and white as 'those guys invited those guys to help with this thing, so they're all best buddies now'? 

The relationship between Kazakhstan and Russia is far from simple. 

Georgia is a far more obvious target - we all remember the invasion of 2008 - but a psychopathic dictator such as Putin, determined to secure his place in the pantheon of psychopathic Russian dictators, will not have ruled the Central Asian nations out of the equation. Surely. 

[ICTChris]

The Wagner Group seem to have sustained some casualties following an artillery strike on a base of theirs in Popansa.  Wagner apparently formed the spearhead of Russian forces taking the town and there were photographs of meetings held there a couple of days ago on a Wagner-affiliated Telegram channel.  Rumour is that the photos were geolocated and a strike called in.   Photos from Rob Lee below

 

 

[bennett]

 

 

 

[GTee]

Anyone know what the settled outcome is here. Where does it stop. Clearly Putin isn't doing a Hitler.

 

 

 

 

[Hillonearth]

12 minutes ago, GTee said:

Anyone know what the settled outcome is here. Where does it stop. Clearly Putin isn't doing a Hitler.

That's more through lack of competence than lack of ambition I reckon...there clearly was an aspiration to kick on had this been a success story with at least some of the other former Soviet republics although not the NATO member ones...Moldova and Georgia almost certainly in the short to medium term using the time-honoured "repression of X-speaking minorities" playbook.

End state I'm not sure regarding Ukraine...the invasion's obviously been a near-catastrophic failure which has laid bare just how threadbare and poorly-led the Russian armed forces are but in terms of face-saving they're in too deep now to back down without giving themselves a geopolitical beamer of huge proportions. Equally, Ukraine's stated ambition to retake territory back to the 2014 borders is unrealistic. Can see Ukraine eventually emptying them from most of the south bar Crimea but a WW1 style entrenched stalemate in the east of the country. In terms of ending the whole thing, hopefully Putin's health is as bad as some claim because I don't see him being the one to halt the whole fiasco.

[ICTChris]

Something else went boom in Crimea.