Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Todd_is_God]

I see Zelenskyy is now stating the war can only end once Crimea has been liberated.

Putin may have turned a blind eye, per se, to NATO weapons being used by Ukrainian forces to defend against the Russian offensive, but I suspect evidence of any NATO supplied weaponry being used as part of a Ukranian offensive in Crimea may invoke a much different response.

A dangerous statement IMO.

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

...but I suspect evidence of any NATO supplied weaponry being used as part of a Ukranian offensive in Crimea may invoke a much different response.

A dangerous statement IMO.

Because after losing over 400 warplanes and helicopters, 1800 tanks and 4000 APCs largely to NATO weaponry, what's going to really drive him over the edge is Ukraine moving into Crimea, which is still de jure part of their country. Interesting theory but still some way to go until it gets tested out in practice. The Ukrainians haven't even liberated Kherson yet, but this is a major development if accurate:

because it means the Russians can't drive over the Dniepr any more and are completely reliant on makeshift ferries.

[renton]

1 hour ago, Todd_is_God said:

I see Zelenskyy is now stating the war can only end once Crimea has been liberated.

Putin may have turned a blind eye, per se, to NATO weapons being used by Ukrainian forces to defend against the Russian offensive, but I suspect evidence of any NATO supplied weaponry being used as part of a Ukranian offensive in Crimea may invoke a much different response.

A dangerous statement IMO.

How much of that is trying to get the Russians to put more forces into the Crimea, or opposite Kherson in the short term.

Either they want to try and put as much Russian forces into an area where they can more easily attrite them, or to pull them out of a sector elsewhere that the Ukranians can more easily counter attack, or both.

 

[DiegoDiego]

Thanks to taking back Snake Island after HIMARS arrived Ukraine is also exporting grain again. Those two factors will take the edge off inflation in the months ahead.

The restarting of grain exports is more symbolic than practical as things stand. The actual amount of grain exported so far is tiny. Even with a massive increase they're unlikely to get close to exporting last year's harvest before this year's needs to go into silos. I'd imagine the effect on UK inflation will be negligible.

[Todd_is_God]

9 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Because after losing over 400 warplanes and helicopters, 1800 tanks and 4000 APCs largely to NATO weaponry, what's going to really drive him over the edge is Ukraine moving into Crimea, which is still de jure part of their country. Interesting theory but still some way to go until it gets tested out in practice. The Ukrainians haven't even liberated Kherson yet, but this is a major development if accurate:

because it means the Russians can't drive over the Dniepr any more and are completely reliant on makeshift ferries.

It would almost certainly escalate the Russian offensive from a special military operation to a declaration of war.

Russian Nuclear Policy allows for nuclear first strikes in response to an attack on Russian territory. Russia sees Crimea as part of Russia.

Given NATO involvement already, this type of move from Ukraine certainly would not be as trivial as you put it.

Factor in to the mix a supposedly ill Putin in a vulnerable position and it does become a dangerous development.

[Todd_is_God]

8 minutes ago, renton said:

How much of that is trying to get the Russians to put more forces into the Crimea, or opposite Kherson in the short term.

Either they want to try and put as much Russian forces into an area where they can more easily attrite them, or to pull them out of a sector elsewhere that the Ukranians can more easily counter attack, or both.

Or, Zelenskyy is looking for the green light from NATO to engage in fighting beyond the Feb 2022 borders to be on record.

Either way, I doubt a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea was what the West signed up for.

[renton]

6 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Or, Zelenskyy is looking for the green light from NATO to engage in fighting beyond the Feb 2022 borders to be on record.

Either way, I doubt a Ukrainian offensive in Crimea was what the West signed up for.

I don't think Ukraine are that interested in going in there, presently. Terrain is a shocker for an attacking force from the North and you end up under fire from Russian territory, Besides that kind of depth of advance is probably beyond Ukraine at the moment. If Ukraine can control the Dneiper crossings, the Hydroelectric dam (which basically is how Crimea get's fresh water) and can keep Crimean bases under fire, then I think that would do for them in the short to medium term.

Edited August 10, 2022 by renton

[Todd_is_God]

27 minutes ago, renton said:

I don't think Ukraine are that interested in going in there, presently. Terrain is a shocker for an attacking force from the North and you end up under fire from Russian territory, Besides that kind of depth of advance is probably beyond Ukraine at the moment. If Ukraine can control the Dneiper crossings, the Hydroelectric dam (which basically is how Crimea get's fresh water) and can keep Crimean bases under fire, then I think that would do for them in the short to medium term.

The wording of his statement, however, suggests that even in the unlikely event Ukraine is successful in the pushing back of Russian forces to the February 2022 borders that this would not be enough for him to consider that a victory.

NATO have needlesly gotten themselves involved in a war where neither side now sees February 2022's borders as an acceptable resolution.

[LongTimeLurker]

12 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

The restarting of grain exports is more symbolic than practical as things stand. The actual amount of grain exported so far is tiny...

Meanwhile this is what the Ukrainians are saying:

Worth bearing in mind that the Russians are exporting some of what last year would have counted as Ukraine's grain harvest so the situation in terms of global food supply is a lot less dire than it could have been.

 

Looks like the bridge over the Dniepr isn't quite fully out of commission yet but probably only a matter of time:

 

[welshbairn]

1 hour ago, renton said:

I don't think Ukraine are that interested in going in there, presently. Terrain is a shocker for an attacking force from the North and you end up under fire from Russian territory, Besides that kind of depth of advance is probably beyond Ukraine at the moment. If Ukraine can control the Dneiper crossings, the Hydroelectric dam (which basically is how Crimea get's fresh water) and can keep Crimean bases under fire, then I think that would do for them in the short to medium term.

I think it's all about leverage. For any eventual settlement Russia will have to see a potential territorial downside, not just carrying on a slow land grab by snail paced destruction until they control everything from Donbas through Kherson to Odessa and Transnistria. The Russian seizure of Crimea was brilliantly done and at no cost other than weak sanctions, the threat of turning that gain into a another field of attrition could make them more amenable to negotiation. Ukraine obviously aren't going to concede any territory while Russia are still on the attack. 

[DiegoDiego]

Meanwhile this is what the Ukrainians are saying:
Worth bearing in mind that the Russians are exporting some of what last year would have counted as Ukraine's grain harvest so the situation in terms of global food supply is a lot less dire than it could have been.

The $20 billion figure is quite the claim considering in 2020 they exported $4.61 billion.

Edit: fake news, that was just their wheat exports. The grain total was $10.38 billion.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

 

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

13 hours ago, Zen Archer (Raconteur) said:

 

 

 

Think the Ukrainians are happy for now to keep the Russians guessing about how they did this but people who appear to know what they are talking about on twitter seem to be coming around to the idea that it was missiles that were the culprit based mainly on the size of the craters that are visible:

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

 

The special forces stuff is nonsense - I don't doubt there will be some out there but their role will be more logistical and information gathering than direct military action

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[Bairnardo]

It's interesting to see the posters who were very vocally critical of Ukraine for using housing estates and schools to fire rockets from, strangely silent over Russia using a nuclear power station to fire rockets from.
 

Some effort to manage to appear utterly desperate, given the subject matter, and the fact that it's a Scottish football forum...