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Russian invasion of Ukraine


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1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Snake Island was hit by Ukraine again last night. Today the Russian MoD have released a statement saying that they had completed all their tasks and were withdrawing from the territory, ...

If Ukraine can place some of the NATO supplied anti-ship missiles onto the island, any Russian ship leaving Sevastapol is probably significantly easier to target at that point. 

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31 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

If Ukraine can place some of the NATO supplied anti-ship missiles onto the island, any Russian ship leaving Sevastapol is probably significantly easier to target at that point. 

Surely they’d run into a big issue with being exposed, same as thebRussians did? There’s no cover there and given the limited number of anti-ship missiles they have it would be a big risk.

ETA, apparently it was the introduction of French Cesar howitzers firing from the shore that lead the Russians to withdraw.

Edited by ICTChris
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1 hour ago, ICTChris said:

Surely they’d run into a big issue with being exposed, same as thebRussians did? ...

Lot further from Sevastapol than it is from the Ukrainian coast by the Danube so there's probably no risk of shelling. The Russians can't safely get naval vessels close now because of harpoon anti-ship missiles. They attacked with the Moskva last time around and it's now at the bottom of the sea. Air attack would be vulnerable to Stingers etc so the big problem would be cruise missile attacks but that's the same pretty much anywhere in Ukraine.

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Another BBC report on the 331st Guards airborne.

Some real Adam Curtis moments in that report, the kids dancing on stage in paratrooper colours, the old veteren singing patriotic songs in front of about five pensioners.  

Edited by ICTChris
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53 minutes ago, Theroadlesstravelled said:

A MAGA crusader, Putin’s bitch and an F1 fan.

I don’t know what’s worse of the 3.

Definitely being an F1 fan.

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3 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Lot further from Sevastapol than it is from the Ukrainian coast by the Danube so there's probably no risk of shelling. The Russians can't safely get naval vessels close now because of harpoon anti-ship missiles. They attacked with the Moskva last time around and it's now at the bottom of the sea. Air attack would be vulnerable to Stingers etc so the big problem would be cruise missile attacks but that's the same pretty much anywhere in Ukraine.

I’d expect a small team to be landed to act as spotter/observers. Any ship in the vicinity could be targeted by Ukrainian missiles, with an observer likely able to see anything within 10-15+ miles, depending on the observers height above sea level and the height/size of the target. Putting a radar there would be useful, but would just act as a target to encourage strikes. The location of Snake Island is more important to Romanian sea traffic and Ukrainian air traffic than anything else.
 

Since observers would exclude Russian surface forces from approaching the far Western Ukrainian coast without being spotted (Snake Island is about 22 miles offshore, allowing a healthy spotting overlap), it seems a no brainer to have a few people on the cliff tops around the island. Sited well, unless spotted, they would be near impossible to target. Establishment of a remote antenna(s) would protect against radio location of anything but the antenna…but I do wonder if they had subsea wire laid before this, and it it can be used/repaired.

One note, the Moskva might have stood a much better chance against Harpoons than Neptunes, due to the older design of the Harpoons (Block I, and possibly Block II) that Ukraine has acquired. Since the IB and IC offered selectable terminal attack profiles, if the pop-up mode was selected, the Moskva would likely have downed the inbounds. Neptunes stay low, which may have kept it out of the main engagement window for the air defence and close-in missile systems on Moskva.

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1 hour ago, dirty dingus said:

I'm sure Snake Island will be mined tae f**k. Wouldn't like to be the first spotter to venture onto it after the Russians bolted.

It's got burning military equipment on it at the moment

 

I'm not sure how much strategic value Snake Island has - Russia seemed to think it did, they repeatedly reinforced it.  I think they gave an officer a Hero of Russia award last week for actions taken in defence of it.

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5 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

It's got burning military equipment on it at the moment

 

I'm not sure how much strategic value Snake Island has - Russia seemed to think it did, they repeatedly reinforced it.  I think they gave an officer a Hero of Russia award last week for actions taken in defence of it.

Wonder if it's more to do with propoganda after the whole "Russian warship go f**k yourself" it's become a symbol of Ukrainian resistance hence Russia seemingly willing to sacrifice loads of troops to hold on to it till now.

 

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Reports overnight that 17 civilians killed in Odesa after missile strikes on an apartment building and a recreation centre.

Russian forces are also advancing on Lysychansk, the twin city of Severodonetsk. There are reports that the city is effectively cut off from the rest of Ukrainian held territory now. 

Edited by ICTChris
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