Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Detournement]

The US State Department is funding this insanity.

[LongTimeLurker]

Too late for Zolote and Hirske but will be interesting to see how much of a difference HIMARS makes:

 

 

[LongTimeLurker]

1 hour ago, Detournement said:

The US State Department is funding this insanity.

Maybe the Chechen Republic and Tatarstan amongst others should have the same ability to leave the Russian Federation that Scotland has in a UK context?

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Maybe the Chechen Republic and Tatarstan amongst others should have the same ability to leave the Russian Federation that Scotland has in a UK context?

Tartanstan would be a good name for Scotland if we go independent.

[Detournement]

1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Maybe the Chechen Republic and Tatarstan amongst others should have the same ability to leave the Russian Federation that Scotland has in a UK context?

 

Or the same right as Texas or Catalonia. Whether Scotland has a right to leave remains to be seen. 

[ICTChris]

Ukrainian troops have been ordered to retreat from Severodonetsk, according to the military governer.  They will look to move back to more defensible positions, after a battle in the city that has lasted around a month.  Whether this leads to more advances by Russian forces following this remains to be seen.

There has also been footage of HIMARS being fired by Ukrainians, for the first time since their delivery.  The US has announced more HIMARs to be sent to Ukraine this week.

 

 

Edited June 24, 2022 by ICTChris

[Abdul_Latif]

So we are now 4 months in…

What’s the prognosis? Is this a ten year proxy war or is it gonna see some kind of victory claimed by Russia in the near future?

Seems like the western interest is very much waining, other than sending weapons to last till the last Ukrainian is standing. 

[dirty dingus]

[dirty dingus]

2 hours ago, Abdul_Latif said:

So we are now 4 months in…

What’s the prognosis? Is this a ten year proxy war or is it gonna see some kind of victory claimed by Russia in the near future?

Seems like the western interest is very much waining, other than sending weapons to last till the last Ukrainian is standing. 

It's pretty much up to whether Putin calls it a war. If he does he can mobilise a million reserves(whether they have kit for them I don't know) but it's a gamble. Sheer number will probably overwhelm Ukraine but the amount of troops dying will not go down well in Russia. If Russia take the whole Donbass it may settle down till Ukraine get Hardwear, train troops and resupply the front lines and have a push back at Russia once the weather starts turning shitty.

[bairn88]

16 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

Pretty much a pure layman R.e this conflict, but this sort of thing is why I've never understood the endgame. Sure, Russia could "conquer" (Militarily) some (or all) of Ukraine. But then what? Surely just endless sabotage and violence from within held cities, until the Russians think its just not worth it anymore?

[Todd_is_God]

15 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

If Russia take the whole Donbass it may settle down till Ukraine get Hardwear, train troops and resupply the front lines and have a push back at Russia once the weather starts turning shitty.

Ukraine launching a counter offensive and pushing Russian troops out of Ukraine is utter fantasyland stuff IMO

[ICTChris]

15 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

It's pretty much up to whether Putin calls it a war. If he does he can mobilise a million reserves(whether they have kit for them I don't know) but it's a gamble. Sheer number will probably overwhelm Ukraine but the amount of troops dying will not go down well in Russia. If Russia take the whole Donbass it may settle down till Ukraine get Hardwear, train troops and resupply the front lines and have a push back at Russia once the weather starts turning shitty.

I think the fact that Russia hasn't mobilised so far would suggest that they don't want to do it.  They have tried to raise extra troops by a kind of shadow mobilisation - offering people who have recently left the military significant money to sign contracts to rejoin, offering extensions on contracts, using reservists and using the likes of Wagner forces, all of whom have been heavily used in the current battles around the Donbas.  They have also heavily relied on the troops raised from the DPR and LPR.

A mobilisation isn't an immediate panacea either.  It would take months and months of work to get mobilised troops anywhere near ready to go to Ukraine to fight or even to backfill into non-combat positions.  

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/jun/24/volodymyr-zelenskiy-urges-glastonbury-crowd-help-end-war-ukraine

Just when you thought that even Glastonbury couldn't become any more of a tragic, virtue-signalling exercise for the liberal middle class. 

[vikingTON]

12 minutes ago, bairn88 said:

Pretty much a pure layman R.e this conflict, but this sort of thing is why I've never understood the endgame. Sure, Russia could "conquer" (Militarily) some (or all) of Ukraine. But then what? Surely just endless sabotage and violence from within held cities, until the Russians think its just not worth it anymore?

There's no evidence of endless sabotage or violence (at least against the state) in Crimea, which Russia has occupied for nearly a decade. Ukraine does not have the geography for guerilla warfare and Russia is capable of projecting power much more effectively as a direct conquering force, than could ever be done by propping up a puppet native government in Vietnam, Iraq or (both Soviets and the US) Afghanistan. 

The balance sheet does not make this a good war for Russia to fight: it has massively entrenched NATO and Kiev's hostility while gaining no crucial objective. They can hang on to what they obtain by force of arms though quite comfortably until the will of the Kremlin shifts.

Edited June 24, 2022 by vikingTON

[Todd_is_God]

1 minute ago, virginton said:

https://www.theguardian.com/music/2022/jun/24/volodymyr-zelenskiy-urges-glastonbury-crowd-help-end-war-ukraine

Just when you thought that even Glastonbury couldn't become any more of a tragic, virtue-signalling exercise for the liberal middle class. 

He's got some cheek

Volodymyr Zelenskiy has called Glastonbury the “greatest concentration of freedom” in the world as he urged festivalgoers to put pressure on politicians to end the war in Ukraine.

If he was to stop acting like a celebrity for a few minutes he might realise that he is actually a politician, and can actually do something about ending the war.

Of course, what he really means, is put pressure on Western politicians to continue throwing money onto a ginormous Eastern European bonfire rather than force him to face up to the fact Ukraine might have to conceed something if they do not want to be slowly pulverised.

[dirty dingus]

2 minutes ago, Todd_is_God said:

Ukraine launching a counter offensive and pushing Russian troops out of Ukraine is utter fantasyland stuff IMO

They'll not push them out of the whole of Ukraine I think the east is pretty much lost now but they'll just try reclaim certain areas. I'm talking about pushing them out of Kherson and away from Kharkiv and reclaiming some territory on the Black Sea.

[Todd_is_God]

5 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

They'll not push them out of the whole of Ukraine I think the east is pretty much lost now but they'll just try reclaim certain areas. I'm talking about pushing them out of Kherson and away from Kharkiv and reclaiming some territory on the Black Sea.

Why would they stop there, though?

If that's their end game then they'd be far better getting round the table and agreeing a peace deal.

[dirty dingus]

Just now, Todd_is_God said:

Why would they stop there, though?

If that's their end game then they'd be far better getting round the table and agreeing a peace deal.

The mood of the Ukrainian people isn't to give up any territory and Zelensky after all his good work would be hated for downing tools, nobody seems to be look to make peace at the minute anyway Russia the West and Ukraine all seem happy for it to carry on. They are getting loads of weaponry supplied and lots of good will. 

[Todd_is_God]

15 minutes ago, dirty dingus said:

The mood of the Ukrainian people isn't to give up any territory and Zelensky after all his good work would be hated for downing tools, nobody seems to be look to make peace at the minute anyway Russia the West and Ukraine all seem happy for it to carry on. They are getting loads of weaponry supplied and lots of good will. 

All well and good, but doesn't explain why sometime down the line it would then be ok to just give up territory.

Not having anything being down to Zelensky's "good work" either. If it weren't for the West's deep rooted anti-Russian stance nobody would be paying him too much attention / giving him access to a seemingly endless supply of weapons.

[dirty dingus]

 

1 minute ago, Todd_is_God said:

All well and good, but doesn't explain why sometime down the line it would then be ok to just give up territory.

Not having anything being down to Zelensky's "good work" either. If it weren't for the West's deep rooted anti-Russian stance nobody would be paying him too much attention / giving him access to a seemingly endless supply of weapons.

Of course he's done good work, mainly by not getting killed while staying in place and speaking positively to the nation. I've been out in Poland a couple of times lately and met many Ukrainians and they all have his back.

If it weren't for the West's deep rooted anti-Russian stance

What about Russia's deep rooted anti-Ukranian stance? 

As I've said before Putin has being pushing the boundaries and a line had to get drawn in the sand. This proxy war is a perfect storm for NATO No casualties, weakening Russia, Ukraine in debt to you and getting down your stockpile of older weaponry so you can get your govt to get you shiny new toys out the public's purse.