vikingTON Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 (edited) 4 hours ago, renton said: So you don't think a major stumbling block to de-escalation is Russia's continued invasion? Where did I state this exactly? The obstacles to de-escalation exist on both sides of the conflict right now, as well as with Western liberals who want to create a forever war in the region. The obstacles on the Russian side are less significant than at any time before, because they are winning but not in a position to conquer the entire country. Quote Personally I don't think it's shifting goal posts. Shutting down the war now would at best leave Ukraine without it's pre-2022 territories and vulnerable to further incursions later. It is absolutely a shifting of goalposts to discuss dismemberment of the entire country this autumn, which has now become undefined 'incursions'. Quote I think even in terms of defending a reduced size nation, securing defensible ground beyond artillery range in Kharkiv and controlling the West bank and crossing points at the Dnipro would probably be necessary - Ukraine still controls the major crossings, except Kherson, which is probably why they've made positional local counter attacks in that area. I'm not convinced Western arms supplies would continue onwards of a ceasefire. Certainly not on so generous terms, and NATO membership would still be off the table. 1) Western supplies of serious military hardware will absolutely continue beyond a ceasefire (and would likely be a private precondition of Kiev even discussing serious terms). 2) NATO membership is off the table regardless and will not be revived by the alternative of years of devastating war. This reduces current war aims to a highly questionable strategic defence of territory that they patently cannot defend now, and as a means of endlessly guilt-tripping free/bargain basement military supplies rather than a more conventional support and aid package in peacetime. That's just not a credible basis for losing over a thousand soldiers per day. Quote EU security guarentees might make some nations skittish of letting Ukraine in, short of a fully fledged peace deal with Russia that goes way beyond simple cessation of immediate hostilities. The fact that Ukraine was a corrupt basketcase of a country before the invasion is a rather more significant stumbling block. It'll only be in EU candidate status for years regardless of what kind of peace deal is secured. Edited June 14, 2022 by vikingTON -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve55 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 How things have changed: 28 Feb 2014 BBC Newsnight's Gabriel Gatehouse investigates the links between the new Ukrainian government and Neo-nazis 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
steve55 Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 US funded 46 biolabs in Ukraine: Pentagon https://english.almayadeen.net/news/politics/us-funded-46-biolabs-in-ukraine:-pentagon 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Loonytoons Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 How things have changed: 28 Feb 2014 BBC Newsnight's Gabriel Gatehouse investigates the links between the new Ukrainian government and Neo-nazis You see to keep pushing the nazi-Ukrainian theme as a reason for a country run by elitist right wing expansionist having the right to invade another country.Ukraine undoubtedly does have far right groups but so do many other countries, USA being one of them.Do you think Putin would be OK invading any of them because of this? 4 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
alta-pete Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 Methinks @virginton has picked the wrong fight when trying to take on @renton . ‘mon the renton! A question for those better ITK than me - the Black Sea Fleet seems to be a big thing for Russia but, if Turkey (I think) controls the straights (can’t remember their proper name) then what’s the point of the land bridge to Crimea if the Russians can’t get anything out to the rest of the world? 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 7 minutes ago, alta-pete said: Methinks @virginton has picked the wrong fight when trying to take on @renton . ‘mon the renton! A question for those better ITK than me - the Black Sea Fleet seems to be a big thing for Russia but, if Turkey (I think) controls the straights (can’t remember their proper name) then what’s the point of the land bridge to Crimea if the Russians can’t get anything out to the rest of the world? In no way an ITK answer, but i'd happily bet my own money that the rest of the world will be back trading merrily with Russia shortly after any end to hostilities. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DiegoDiego Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 A question for those better ITK than me - the Black Sea Fleet seems to be a big thing for Russia but, if Turkey (I think) controls the straights (can’t remember their proper name) then what’s the point of the land bridge to Crimea if the Russians can’t get anything out to the rest of the world? I think it's more about being able to have a strong hold on Crimea and being able to get goods into the region, which isn't the most self-sufficient. It is, however, one of the nine bottlenecks into Russia proper for opposing forces, so having strong control over it is important from certain perspectives. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 10 hours ago, renton said: On the other side of the hill Ukraine is training a new, fairly large army as quickly as it can, They have been at war for 8 years and are taking crazy losses at the moment. The Guardian said 20,000 casualties a month this weekend. How big an army can they be training? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 I think there will be a ceasefire agreement in September. Germany isn't going to take the chance that the gas gets turned off in the winter. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 1 hour ago, alta-pete said: Methinks @virginton has picked the wrong fight when trying to take on @renton . ‘mon the renton! A question for those better ITK than me - the Black Sea Fleet seems to be a big thing for Russia but, if Turkey (I think) controls the straights (can’t remember their proper name) then what’s the point of the land bridge to Crimea if the Russians can’t get anything out to the rest of the world? Turkey is only stopping Russian navy ships whose home ports aren't on the Black Sea from passing towards it, any ships can leave if the Russians allow it. Russia wants more than the land bridge imo, they want to totally cut off Ukraine from the sea, which means taking Odessa. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
DeeTillEhDeh Posted June 14, 2022 Share Posted June 14, 2022 The thinking being, presumably that Putin could push Ukraine out of what's left of Luhansk and Donesk and declare his 'special operation ' aims fulfilled. He would then ask for a ceasefire which Ukraine probably suspects it's Western partners would pressure it to concede to. The outcome of which would likely leave Russia in control of everything it currently occupies. Russia would then proceed to integrate those regions from luhansk to Kherson into Russia proper, as well as regenerating it's forces and then sometime in the late Summer/Autumn finding another Causus Belli to dismember what's left of Ukraine. On the other side of the hill Ukraine is training a new, fairly large army as quickly as it can, and is trying to integrate Western artillery systems and get their hands on more systems that would allow it to entertain operational level counter attacks to liberate more of it's territories. If viewed through that prism, yes it's about trading people for time, rather than space for people. Ukraine needs to hold Russia up in Luhansk long enough to build a force capable of larger counter attacks.That's partly how I see it as well - it's clearly a strategy to suck in Russian forces - delaying them long enough to strengthen elsewhere - though not so sure about the counter-offensive part - more likely trying to reinforce to prevent further future expansion but also make Russia consider the losses any attempt would entail.It may also give Putin the ultimate get-out - he can say he's achieved his aim once both regions and occupied and save face. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 10 hours ago, Detournement said: ...I think there will be a ceasefire agreement in September. Germany isn't going to take the chance that the gas gets turned off in the winter. Germany isn't calling the shots to the extent it was in 2014 and has four floating storage and regasification units arranged for the end of the year in anticipation of Russian blackmail. If the worst comes to the worst they can always turns their nukes back on and persuade the Dutch to ramp up production from the Groningen gas field. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 9 hours ago, DeeTillEhDeh said: ...It may also give Putin the ultimate get-out - he can say he's achieved his aim once both regions and occupied and save face. Think the Ukrainians are serious about retaking their land right up to and no doubt preferably including Crimea/DNR/LNR and there is probably very little concern on their part over whether Putin saves face because they would greatly prefer regime change. Enough of NATO (most of eastern Europe, Baltics, UK and US) is on board that they will eventually get the weaponry needed if they are willing to pay the price needed to stay in the game long enough for Russia's amour and missile inventory to be degraded away. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Russia has cut 40% of gas supply through Nord Stream 1 and immediately wholesale gas prices in Europe have jumped 25%. Russia is going to make the same money for supplying less gas and German storage facilities will remain empty. The EU are a global joke. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Detournement Posted June 15, 2022 Share Posted June 15, 2022 Quote Up to 1,000 Ukrainian soldiers are being killed or wounded each day in the Donbas region of eastern Ukraine, with 200 to 500 killed on average and many more wounded, a top Ukrainian official said on Wednesday. The big picture: President Volodymyr Zelensky said on June 1 that 60 to 100 Ukrainian troops were being killed daily as Russia stepped up its Donbas offensive. Over the past two weeks that number has climbed significantly according to David Arakhamia, who leads Ukraine's negotiations with Russia and is one of Zelensky's closest advisers. https://www.axios.com/2022/06/15/ukraine-1000-casualties-day-donbas-arakhamia Just in Donbass. It's not completely insane though. -1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Maybe someone should be trying to get the Russians to stop? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 The onus is currently on the chump Ukrainian president to change his country's braindead tactics, to make the Russian effort costly enough for them to stop and reconsider. That's how war works. -5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Says our own Poundland Rommel 6 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Guest Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 Ukrainian accounts of life under occupation. https://www.bbc.co.uk/news/world-europe-61683513 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
vikingTON Posted June 16, 2022 Share Posted June 16, 2022 2 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Says our own Poundland Rommel ^^^ bought 14 khaki T-shirts to imitate his hero 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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