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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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22 minutes ago, Detournement said:

 

I wonder how much you get for selling part of your country to Poland?

The Poles obviously want a buffer zone since this is never going to end. 

 

 

I don't get this, you think joint border controls mean conceding territory?

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19 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Ukraine have ordered troops to stop defending Mariupol. Does this mean Russia are winning the war? It seemed to be going badly for them not too long ago. ☹️

There's nothing left to defend, it's a pile of rubble that Russia has controlled for a couple of months now apart from a few bunkers under the steel plant.

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Regarding Ukraine grain exports, I realise it's a pain but can they not just drive their trucks another few hundred miles down to Constanta in Romania? Many would already have to cover long distances within Ukraine to get to Odessa.

Edited by welshbairn
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1 hour ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Ukraine have ordered troops to stop defending Mariupol. Does this mean Russia are winning the war? It seemed to be going badly for them not too long ago. ☹️

There has been no real fighting in Mariupol for over a month. All that has been happening is a siege of the Azov fighters and Ukrainan regular forces sheltering underground in the steel factory.

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1 hour ago, welshbairn said:

I don't get this, you think joint border controls mean conceding territory?

Borders are already under joint control by definition. This is going to be the Polish military taking control of part of western Ukraine (which was once part of Poland). 

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2 minutes ago, Detournement said:

Borders are already under joint control by definition. This is going to be the Polish military taking control of part of western Ukraine (which was once part of Poland). 

Where did you get this from? Joint control normally just means avoiding duplication of checks and staffing.

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Regarding Ukraine grain exports, I realise it's a pain but can they not just drive their trucks another few hundred miles down to Constanta in Romania? Many would already have to cover long distances within Ukraine to get to Odessa.
It's not really just another few hundred miles as they don't normally drive it to Odessa to begin with, they sail it down the Dnieper.

Also, surely the port of Constanța has nowhere near the spare capacity to handle Ukraine's exports.
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11 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

It's not really just another few hundred miles as they don't normally drive it to Odessa to begin with, they sail it down the Dnieper.

Also, surely the port of Constanța has nowhere near the spare capacity to handle Ukraine's exports.

According to this most of it is delivered by rail to the Black Seas ports, which makes sense given that much of it will be grown a long way from the Dneiper. Apart from potential capacity at Constanta a problem is the railway's a different gauge in Romania.

https://www.bloomberg.com/news/features/2022-04-05/will-russia-s-war-in-ukraine-cause-wheat-shortages-raise-food-prices-more

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Guest Flash

The other problem is the cost of insurance for merchant shipping in the Black Sea. There is an article in the FT setting out the potential ways they are looking at of dealing with the blockade. There is a link in the FT to an article by Allianz on the impact of the blockade on worldwide shipping.

FT
Eta not sure if the FT link will work. Basically they are looking at shifting some stuff by rail and potentially looking at convoys in the Black Sea but that creates its own problems. Ukraine taking on the Russian navy with missiles supplied from the West is another. Again, not exactly easy.

Here’s the link to the Allianz article.

Allianz

 

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5 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Ukraine have ordered troops to stop defending Mariupol. Does this mean Russia are winning the war? It seemed to be going badly for them not too long ago. ☹️

Russia has been forced to significantly reduce its war aims several times. It started as a coup, the idea was that a lightning attack on Hostomel airport would allow their special forces to seize key locations in the capital, the government would flee and the army would roll over the disorganised opposition in 3 days. This is part of why their logistics sucked balls in the first couple of weeks. 

They have been forced to withdraw from near Kyiv at great loss.

They have also, in the past weeks, been pushed away from Ukraines second largest city: Kharkiv. So in the big picture its a total disaster for them. However As Ukraine has had to focus on defending its two largest cities and stop break outs in other parts of the country they have been losing ground around the JFO (Joint Forces Area)

Link to large map

Roughly from Izyum to Mariupol. 

The Russias have been rebuilding their shattered battalions into new battalions for one last push. This is slowly making ground. Ukraines plan from here on is to keep pulling in reservists and training them up and waiting for the US equipment to start arriving in mass in the coming months.

https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2022/5/19/unprecedented-us-congress-passes-massive-ukraine-aid-package

It will be a brutal and ugly artillery slugging match for the next couple of months. Then the armoured vehicles and other kit will begin to flood in. Russia will simply run out of enough trained and willing soldiers. 

 

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