Russian invasion of Ukraine

[dorlomin]

Whats at stake for Russia with respect to Finland

In essence it straddles one road to a large portion of Russias air and naval power. But what can Russia do? It has no ground forces and little else to confront Finland with. 

 

[ICTChris]

Article about those who collaborated with Russian forces and what’s happening to them now

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-ukrainian-town-a-collaborator-who-worked-with-the-russians-now-faces-justice-11652972162

[jagfox]

4 hours ago, dorlomin said:

Whats at stake for Russia with respect to Finland

In essence it straddles one road to a large portion of Russias air and naval power. But what can Russia do? It has no ground forces and little else to confront Finland with. 

 

Also most of its nuclear arsenal apparently.

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[welshbairn]

15 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Article about those who collaborated with Russian forces and what’s happening to them now

https://www.wsj.com/articles/in-a-ukrainian-town-a-collaborator-who-worked-with-the-russians-now-faces-justice-11652972162

If Germany had occupied Britain in WW2 there would have been people like him in every town queuing up to offer assistance.

[Newbornbairn]

Just now, welshbairn said:

If Germany had occupied Britain in WW2 there would have been people like him in every town queuing up to offer assistance.

There would have been whole stadiums worth in Glasgow.

[dorlomin]

How much do people know (or care) about the rivalry between Russian and Turkey and how they see each other as mortal enemies? People might know they are fighting for influence in parts of central Asia, but its older and deeper than that. 

Back back back when Vikings were a big thing for these islands, a group of them had settled in the Slavic lands of the Dnieper River, these are the Kyivian Rus. They were hired directly by the Roman emperors in Constantinople to be a personal body guard, loyal to the emperor (and co-emperors and sometimes empresses it was errr Byzantine complex. ) In turn they brought Orthodox Christianity to the northern Slavs. 

Move forward to 1453 and the Dutchy of Moscow is now one the major players in the north of Europe. The Turkic Ottomans finally conquer Constantinople and declare themselves inheritors of Rome (it took till Attaturk for this to be binned). While the Princes of Moscow took the last emperors daughters as a wife ,Sophia Palaiologina,  and proclaimed Moscow the Third Rome and used the double headed eagle as its house symbol (the symbol of Rome). This is why to this day Russia uses the double headed eagle. Its views itself as the inheritor to the legal and religious authority of Rome. 

Over the next couple of hundred years Moscow and Constantinople fought for control and influence across the lands from the Baltic to the Chinese border. The irony being the Ottomans ended up controlling the Orthodox and Slavic lands in Europe and Moscow the Turkic and Muslim lands in central Asia. The Persians and Austrian Empires were involved in this trying for power and influence but all these great land powers were in relative decline to the new, mercantile, sea based powers from the north wester European coasts. Being the worlds leading science nations helps, helps a huge amount. 

Out of their far away and not all that important fights for trading posts and colonies in the empty American forests and trading concessions on the edge of India one power emerges, Britain. They decide to shit stir against the Russians to try to prevent them from taking over the Slavic\Orthodox lands in Europe from a failing Ottoman Empire. That plus thwarting them in central Asia (The Great Game) make Britain a historic enemy of Imperial Russia. 

I think this is where peoples knowledge of history of the region starts to kick in, the Crimean War, the rise of Prussia into Germany, nationalism grips Europe, WWI and the world we all know is here. 

But for the Turks there is a small matter of genocides committed by them and to them. The god tier clusterfarce of the Three Pasha's rule of Ottoman Empire would take a book to explain but speed run: they take over the running of the Ottoman empire as part of the Young Turks movement (early 1910s) that is sort of liberal and nationalist but ends up being Turkic chauvinist. Couple of failed Balkan wars (because there are no successful Balkan wars) later and as they are utter fucking morons they decide to get the Ottomans into WWI on the side of the Central Powers and refuse British bribes to stay out. They invade the Russian Empire in the Caucuses and it goes horribly wrong. They then blame Armenians for this and proceed to commit a major genocide. Other wacky shit happens like they try to invade British controlled Egypt and the British end up with Ottoman Palestine and Syria, Britain tries to invade via Gallipoli showing incompetence and stupidity are the one abundant resource of the era. 

The wars end and things get uglier. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_genocide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_exchange_between_Greece_and_Turkey

This is such a superficial over view of nearly 1000 years of wars from the Turks invading Anatolia with the Varangians standing by the side of endless emperors fighting them till the modern Armenian Azerbaijani fight as a proxy between "Christian" Russia and "Muslim\Turkic" Turkey. 

Putin and Erdogan are deeply affected and influenced by this history (Erdogan turning Hagia Sofia back into a Mosque). But they are also deeply corrupt and exploiting history and historic grievance for their respective audiences. They cite the invasions, genocides and imperialism they were subjected to while skirting round the invasions, genocides and imperialism they subjected others too. 

 

[Newbornbairn]

Reading that virtually the entire US fleet of military supply ships is at sea in the Atlantic heading for Europe. Far more than just huge amounts of equipment for Ukraine, they're building up US forces in Europe.

[jagfox]

 

 

[dirty dingus]

1 hour ago, dorlomin said:

How much do people know (or care) about the rivalry between Russian and Turkey and how they see each other as mortal enemies? People might know they are fighting for influence in parts of central Asia, but its older and deeper than that. 

Back back back when Vikings were a big thing for these islands, a group of them had settled in the Slavic lands of the Dnieper River, these are the Kyivian Rus. They were hired directly by the Roman emperors in Constantinople to be a personal body guard, loyal to the emperor (and co-emperors and sometimes empresses it was errr Byzantine complex. ) In turn they brought Orthodox Christianity to the northern Slavs. 

Move forward to 1453 and the Dutchy of Moscow is now one the major players in the north of Europe. The Turkic Ottomans finally conquer Constantinople and declare themselves inheritors of Rome (it took till Attaturk for this to be binned). While the Princes of Moscow took the last emperors daughters as a wife ,Sophia Palaiologina,  and proclaimed Moscow the Third Rome and used the double headed eagle as its house symbol (the symbol of Rome). This is why to this day Russia uses the double headed eagle. Its views itself as the inheritor to the legal and religious authority of Rome. 

Over the next couple of hundred years Moscow and Constantinople fought for control and influence across the lands from the Baltic to the Chinese border. The irony being the Ottomans ended up controlling the Orthodox and Slavic lands in Europe and Moscow the Turkic and Muslim lands in central Asia. The Persians and Austrian Empires were involved in this trying for power and influence but all these great land powers were in relative decline to the new, mercantile, sea based powers from the north wester European coasts. Being the worlds leading science nations helps, helps a huge amount. 

Out of their far away and not all that important fights for trading posts and colonies in the empty American forests and trading concessions on the edge of India one power emerges, Britain. They decide to shit stir against the Russians to try to prevent them from taking over the Slavic\Orthodox lands in Europe from a failing Ottoman Empire. That plus thwarting them in central Asia (The Great Game) make Britain a historic enemy of Imperial Russia. 

I think this is where peoples knowledge of history of the region starts to kick in, the Crimean War, the rise of Prussia into Germany, nationalism grips Europe, WWI and the world we all know is here. 

But for the Turks there is a small matter of genocides committed by them and to them. The god tier clusterfarce of the Three Pasha's rule of Ottoman Empire would take a book to explain but speed run: they take over the running of the Ottoman empire as part of the Young Turks movement (early 1910s) that is sort of liberal and nationalist but ends up being Turkic chauvinist. Couple of failed Balkan wars (because there are no successful Balkan wars) later and as they are utter fucking morons they decide to get the Ottomans into WWI on the side of the Central Powers and refuse British bribes to stay out. They invade the Russian Empire in the Caucuses and it goes horribly wrong. They then blame Armenians for this and proceed to commit a major genocide. Other wacky shit happens like they try to invade British controlled Egypt and the British end up with Ottoman Palestine and Syria, Britain tries to invade via Gallipoli showing incompetence and stupidity are the one abundant resource of the era. 

The wars end and things get uglier. 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Greek_genocide

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/Population_exchange_between_Greece_and_Turkey

This is such a superficial over view of nearly 1000 years of wars from the Turks invading Anatolia with the Varangians standing by the side of endless emperors fighting them till the modern Armenian Azerbaijani fight as a proxy between "Christian" Russia and "Muslim\Turkic" Turkey. 

Putin and Erdogan are deeply affected and influenced by this history (Erdogan turning Hagia Sofia back into a Mosque). But they are also deeply corrupt and exploiting history and historic grievance for their respective audiences. They cite the invasions, genocides and imperialism they were subjected to while skirting round the invasions, genocides and imperialism they subjected others too. 

 

A wee bit about the Rus expansion.

[Sergeant Wilson]

1 hour ago, jagfox said:

 

 

It'll be the nightshift.

[ICTChris]

Russian forces are advancing from Popsana in the Donbas. I think this appears to the axis of advance they are making most progress in.

 

[ICTChris]

6 hours ago, welshbairn said:

If Germany had occupied Britain in WW2 there would have been people like him in every town queuing up to offer assistance.

Yep, there’s always going to be people who are ambitious enough to do it.

There are varied reports from Kherson of violent resistance against collaborationist authorities. 

[Bully Wee Villa]

On 18/05/2022 at 20:23, welshbairn said:

I realise keeping Turkey onside might have long term strategic value, and Finland and Sweden are pretty well embedded in NATO anyway, but given how uncooperative with NATO Turkey have been in recent decades and how they've been teasing Russia with Syria, Azerbaijan and Ukraine either directly or by the supply of drones etc, you'd think NATO could call their bluff and say back this or you're out, you're on your own. Pretty sure Turkey would cave pronto.

They should kick Turkey out and add Finland, Sweden and Kurdistan.

Edited May 19, 2022 by Bully Wee Villa

[jagfox]

7 hours ago, ICTChris said:

Russian forces are advancing from Popsana in the Donbas. I think this appears to the axis of advance they are making most progress in.

 

The RU are moving up forces from Mariupol into this front. Looks like a big headache for UA forces.

 

 

[jagfox]

UA hold the high ground apparently and have set defensive lines further back. Might be going for the old Kharkiv defence. On the RU side they have massed around 100k men along a 150-200 km front.

This could be a pivotal battle in the war special military operation. If RU forces are bled into a standstill again by UA counteroffensive it could be disastrous for the Russians. 

[vikingTON]

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2022/may/20/us-accuses-russia-of-weaponising-food-in-ukraine-crisis-and-holding-global-supplies-hostage

Interesting to see the US squeal about this, given the crippling impact their sanctions have had on the ordinary people of Iran, as well as the literal famine conditions already ongoing in Afghanistan after the big boys took their ball and ran away home again. 

You'd have to be absolutely fucking moronic to not link global grain supplies to the removal of Western sanctions, from Moscow's perspective. After energy it is the only viable card they have to play. 

[ICTChris]

Comparison of the Russian invasion of Ukraine and the Iraqi invasion of Iran.

https://warontherocks.com/2022/05/when-strongmen-invade-they-bring-their-pathologies-with-them/
 

[Detournement]

 

I wonder how much you get for selling part of your country to Poland?

The Poles obviously want a buffer zone since this is never going to end.