Russian invasion of Ukraine

[welshbairn]

38 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Sending cutting edge weaponry to Ukraine or wherever else a war might pop up in the coming decade would be more expensive and less effective.

I'd imagine they also wouldn't be keen on sending the really advanced stuff over in case the Russians get hold of it and and are able to reverse engineer the technology.

[ICTChris]

Saw some talk about this video.  A Russian infantry recruit who was captured had his phone taken and the videos of his life pre-war and during the war have been leaked.  I'm watching it now, lots of binge drinking and him getting told off by an old Chechen man.

I've watched it to the end, there's some scenes that feature bodies and wounded soldiers etc so I've put it in spoilers.  I heard about it listening to a podcast where an analyst said it showed how poorly the Russians were fighting.  They drive up to a convoy of burning Russian vehicles, don't really do anything, don't look for survivors, just say "fucking hell" and drive on.  The units seem to just be trying to survive, not following training or protocols.

 

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by ICTChris

[LongTimeLurker]

7 hours ago, Jacksgranda said:

If it's anything like the stuff they've been using themselves the Syrians will maybe say "No, thanks".

Think the argument is that they have neglected maintenance of their basic weaponry and building up their logistics capacity while spending way too much on advanced Bond villain type weapons that they don't have enough of right now to make a difference. If some of their much hyped hypersonic missiles eventually wound up with Syria's answer to Michael Corleone maybe the Iron Dome would be in for a bit more of a test than it usually receives from incoming missiles manufactured in workshops in the Gaza Strip. Israel handed over the missles that could sink the Black Sea fleet though so they don't appear to be too concerned about future revenge tasted cold.

On a completely different topic, this apparent advance over the Northern Donets east of Kharkiv seems too good to be true from a Ukrainian standpoint but something to keep an eye on given it is Russian sources that have been reporting it today (note how Ukraine is minus Crimea and the Donbas in the graphic):

 

Edited May 16, 2022 by LongTimeLurker

[LongTimeLurker]

Igor's on a roll today:

 

[Albus Bulbasaur]

48 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Saw some talk about this video.  A Russian infantry recruit who was captured had his phone taken and the videos of his life pre-war and during the war have been leaked.  I'm watching it now, lots of binge drinking and him getting told off by an old Chechen man.

I've watched it to the end, there's some scenes that feature bodies and wounded soldiers etc so I've put it in spoilers.  I heard about it listening to a podcast where an analyst said it showed how poorly the Russians were fighting.  They drive up to a convoy of burning Russian vehicles, don't really do anything, don't look for survivors, just say "fucking hell" and drive on.  The units seem to just be trying to survive, not following training or protocols.

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I'm watching now. Only 5 minutes in before they've left Russia but the old uncle with pish stained denims falling onto his bed was hilarious. What a state to get yourself in. 

[jagfox]

 

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[ICTChris]

Rumours that the defenders in the Azovstal plant have been told to surrender by Ukrainian commanders.

Zelensky reportedly doing an address about it soon.

[jagfox]

28 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Rumours that the defenders in the Azovstal plant have been told to surrender by Ukrainian commanders.

Zelensky reportedly doing an address about it soon.

 

 

[Bairnardo]

Zelensky has spoken a lot about negotations for these guys in recent days. There mist have been actual, credible dialogue between the two sides over it.

[welshbairn]

7 minutes ago, Bairnardo said:

Zelensky has spoken a lot about negotations for these guys in recent days. There mist have been actual, credible dialogue between the two sides over it.

There's been huge pressure on both sides to sort it, demonstrations in Kiev from family members of the Ukrainian soldiers and the humiliation of the Russian Army of being unable to finish them off after nearly 3 months of bombing and attacks. Sounds like the wounded are being shipped out to Russian hospitals though, I hope the doctors and nurses do the right thing for them, and the still walking soldiers are heard from again. 

[Newbornbairn]

 

A modern Thermopylae, legends.

 

The Russians will use the wounded for propaganda but they'll murder the able-bodied. 

[dirty dingus]

2 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

 

A modern Thermopylae, legends.

 

The Russians will use the wounded for propaganda but they'll murder the able-bodied. 

It's saying a dozen busses have left the steel mill, the way I read it was it was a negotiated trade between injured Ukrainians and Russian POWs. An interesting footnote is that the a senior Zelensky advisor saying that 40 "jewish heroes" fighting in steel works.

[jagfox]

 

Apparently brokered by Turkey. 

[jagfox]

 

 

[DMCs]

Here is hoping there are no massacres if they surrender. Russian and Russian aligned separatist forces executed a number of those who surrender in 2014. Not to mention that Azov are among the people in Avozstal so they could attempt to justify it by claiming that it's just "de-nazification"

[ICTChris]

There have been prisoner swaps already in the war, quite a few.

Also, the guy speaking in that Russian TV clip is an ex officer who wrote an article pre invasion that pretty well predicted what would happen.

 

[jagfox]

Lviv under missile attack tonight.

[Salvo Montalbano]

6 hours ago, ICTChris said:

There have been prisoner swaps already in the war, quite a few.

Also, the guy speaking in that Russian TV clip is an ex officer who wrote an article pre invasion that pretty well predicted what would happen.

 

The presenter really seemed to hate what he was saying. The looks she was giving him would curdle milk.

[dirty dingus]

9 hours ago, jagfox said:

 

 

I think reality has hit home to Russia and the formidable character and quick mobilisation of the Ukraine people and the lend-lease of far superior NATO weapons has got them thinking how can they save face and get out without collapsing their whole hierarchy.  The Azovstal exchanges, the softening on Finland/Sweden, the back tracking on nuclear attacks, the non declaration of war on victory day seem to be showing a more pragmatic approach by Putin. Think this might be over quite soon as all that can really happen is a stalemate with casualties mounting up on both sides. If the Azov exchange goes smoothly I can see Turkey being the main player in getting a peace settlement delivered as Erdogan seems to have a large stake in NATO and Russia.