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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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2 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Don't think anyone gives a shit about Russian weapons any more. They're about 30 years behind the West. 

What type of air defence system they provided Syria was a huge issue between Tel Aviv and Moscow a few years back and stuff like that would still have been a consideration a month ago. Tell tale signs are happening that politicians with keen survival instincts now expect Russia to lose:

 

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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On 02/05/2022 at 03:46, SlipperyP said:

@Kenneth840

Can you post Shauns' work in Cambodia.  I have a few friends that would like to read it.

For some reason I can't find anything, thanks.

Cant post shauns work because i wasnt on about him.  Was on about John Pilgers good work in Cambodia. Think it was called zero. 

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25 minutes ago, superbigal said:

Nearly time for Ukraine Douze Points

They should get Graham Norton to commentate on the Russian performance in the "special military operation". Bad enough that it's a s#itey performance, but to have the pure piss taken out of them at the same time would be excellent viewing. 

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29 minutes ago, jagfox said:

 

 

In February March Russia's plan was to capture Kyiv and place its own people in charge of the country. This collapsed and they pulled back and spent much of April undergoing an "operational pause", shifting troops from Kyiv to focus on encircling the JFO (Donbass) and capturing Ukraine's second largest city., Kharkiv. These operations launched in late April but now they have been pushed out of artillery range from Kharkiv and the Ukrainians are closing on being able to shell some of the logistics lines to the Donbass while the attempts to encircle the JFO\Donbass have stalled to the point it seems that the Izyum axes may be subjected to a counter offensive (attacks that retake land). Also Gerasimov has disappeared after being touted as taking over command in late April then allegedly getting injured in a Ukrainian strike at a staff conference near Belgorod. 

We are beginning to see heavy western equipment arrive like APCs, IFVs and artillery pieces. 

It seems that Russia is again being ground down in an attritional war against an enemy more will to pull in reserves and now has access to vastly deeper equipment pools. 

Russia is concentrating its remaining skilled and motivated troops into smaller and smaller operational areas. This improves the combat effectiveness of those areas but limits their ambitions, first in terms of offensive then in terms of defensive. I think (and anyone is free to disagree with me) the rate that attrition is taking irreplaceable skilled and willing soldiers out the lines for Russia (often into graves). This war will appear to be a slow grind of of Ukrainian victories till a sudden Russian collapse. 

The longer it delayed its mass mobilisation the harder and slower that mobilisation would have been. The units assigned to train up reservists are deployed in Ukraine. This slows their capacity to generate a "surge" of reservists. They also have few units that are combat capable available for rotation, that is swapping in units that have been fighting for months out to rest and recreation and replacing them with trained, fresh units who have been in training or in places like the Chinese border. 

The Russia ground forces are an army headed towards to exhaustion and implosion. It will not be in the next few weeks but its almost guaranteed without something spectacular. 

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