LongTimeLurker Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Seeing tweets like this a lot. Interesting times ahead for the Russian military if accurate: Only a few weeks back Poland sending some old MiG fighters was a step too far. At that point Ukraine may not be in NATO officially but it effectively will be an extension of it militarily for all practical purposes. Nice job Vlad. You almost had Nord Stream 2 up and operational but somehow that wasn't enough for you in geostrategy terms. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennett Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 1 hour ago, LongTimeLurker said: Seeing tweets like this a lot. Interesting times ahead for the Russian military if accurate: Only a few weeks back Poland sending some old MiG fighters was a step too far. At that point Ukraine may not be in NATO officially but it effectively will be an extension of it militarily for all practical purposes. Nice job Vlad. You almost had Nord Stream 2 up and operational but somehow that wasn't enough for you in geostrategy terms. Some A 10s to finish off the Russian armour would be nice. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, bennett said: Some A 10s to finish off the Russian armour would be nice. If Su25s are getting swatted like flies, A10s will last, ooh, 10 minutes. Obsolete. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
bennett Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Just now, Newbornbairn said: If Su25s are getting swatted like flies, A10s will last, ooh, 10 minutes. Obsolete. Not if they have air supremacy, which the F16s will give them once they're trained. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Granny Danger Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 hours ago, ICTChris said: Reports that UK intelligence have heard that Putin will use the May 9th parade / celebrations to declare formal war on Ukraine and begin a general mobilisation. Not sure I believe it. Clearly Putin doesn’t want to do this and I don’t think he will be in a position where he feels he has to at that point. I wonder if there’s anyone powerful enough in Putin’s inner circle to stop him. If the reports of his medical condition are accurate then his generals must know that his actions are not rational and that they have more to fear from potential consequences than him. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 1 minute ago, bennett said: Not if they have air supremacy, which the F16s will give them once they're trained. So it's a plane that needs other planes to protect it, which will do nothing against Manpads. The Soviets, sorry - Russians - have had 50 years to develop a counter against those things. Wouldn't it just be better to cut out the middleman and put Brimstone on the F16s? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 120Mw power station in Eastern Russia mysteriously went bang. Oh dear. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 15 hours ago, welshbairn said: Crimea will not come into play except in the minds of lunatics, neither will the pre February 2022 Donbass lines. This guy sounds like he's either got a bit overexcited or is two sandwiches short of a picnic... Think it's clear now that Russia needs to fully mobilise in the not too distant future or they will be in real danger of a humiliating defeat very few people in the West thought possible back in February. That last bit means some of the other basic assumptions that were generally held at that point are starting to be questioned as well. Think people are getting a wee bit too far ahead of events because there's a strong possibility they actually will mobilise if losing Sebastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk emerges as a credible scenario. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
welshbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said: Think it's clear now that Russia needs to fully mobilise in the not too distant future or they will be in real danger of a humiliating defeat very few people in the West thought possible back in February. That last bit means some of the other basic assumptions that were generally held at that point are starting to be questioned as well. Think people are getting a wee bit too far ahead of events because there's a strong possibility they actually will mobilise if losing Sebastopol, Donetsk and Luhansk emerges as a credible scenario. Being forced back to pre February invasion lines would leave Putin undermined but something Russia as a whole could live with, especially if the borders were enshrined in a treaty. Trying to take the whole of the Donbass and Crimea back would galvanise even Putin's opponents into something potentially hugely dangerous. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 Being forced back to pre February invasion lines would leave Putin undermined but something Russia as a whole could live with, especially if the borders were enshrined in a treaty. Trying to take the whole of the Donbass and Crimea back would galvanise even Putin's opponents into something potentially hugely dangerous.At that point, I would probably no longer support the West's intervention since that would be IMO, the point where this became about something else other than Ukraine. At that point for me Western leaders would be gambling WW3 for their own agendas. Theres nothing to gain here from pursuing some sort of mass humiliation of Russia once Ukraine is secured under some sort of treaty or deal. At least, not for people like us..... 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Blue Brazil Forever Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 5 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: At that point, I would probably no longer support the West's intervention since that would be IMO, the point where this became about something else other than Ukraine. At that point for me Western leaders would be gambling WW3 for their own agendas. Theres nothing to gain here from pursuing some sort of mass humiliation of Russia once Ukraine is secured under some sort of treaty or deal. At least, not for people like us..... The problem is that there is absolutely no prospect at present of Putin accepting or abiding by the terms of any international treaty or negotiated agreement. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Sergeant Wilson Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Blue Brazil Forever said: The problem is that there is absolutely no prospect at present of Putin accepting or abiding by the terms of any international treaty or negotiated agreement. This is where the good Ruskies tell him he won and the treaty is a triumph he should retire on. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jagfox Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
effeffsee_the2nd Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 11 hours ago, ICTChris said: Reports that UK intelligence have heard that Putin will use the May 9th parade / celebrations to declare formal war on Ukraine and begin a general mobilisation. Not sure I believe it. Clearly Putin doesn’t want to do this and I don’t think he will be in a position where he feels he has to at that point. What is the main difference between that and now? it already feels like a "proper " war as it is 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
LongTimeLurker Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 17 minutes ago, effeffsee_the2nd said: What is the main difference between that and now? it already feels like a "proper " war as it is World War II style conscription so they have the boots on the ground needed to storm defensive lines and hold territory with a hostile population in the aftermath. With the sort of weaponry NATO is sending now they are going to have a huge problem finding sufficient numbers of serviceable tanks and military vehicles in a few months even if they do that but it would drag things out a lot longer. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 9 hours ago, Bairnardo said: At that point, I would probably no longer support the West's intervention since that would be IMO, the point where this became about something else other than Ukraine. At that point for me Western leaders would be gambling WW3 for their own agendas. Theres nothing to gain here from pursuing some sort of mass humiliation of Russia once Ukraine is secured under some sort of treaty or deal. At least, not for people like us..... The Russians have shown that they will murder, rape and deport to the Gulags any Ukrainian in territory they occupy. The West should give Ukraine the tools to take their country back, all of it if that's what they want. f**k Russia and f**k Russians. 10 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 The Russians have shown that they will murder, rape and deport to the Gulags any Ukrainian in territory they occupy. The West should give Ukraine the tools to take their country back, all of it if that's what they want. f**k Russia and f**k Russians. See this for me is social media rhetoric that shows a real detachment from reality. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Newbornbairn Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 2 minutes ago, Bairnardo said: 4 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: The Russians have shown that they will murder, rape and deport to the Gulags any Ukrainian in territory they occupy. The West should give Ukraine the tools to take their country back, all of it if that's what they want. f**k Russia and f**k Russians. See this for me is social media rhetoric that shows a real detachment from reality. Pish man. The idea that we should care about how Russia feels about this is frankly bizarre. They started it, they invaded a country that was no threat to them. They've rampaged across Ukraine killing innocent men, women and children at will. f**k them. It's like saying America could keep a bit of Vietnam because they would be offended otherwise. 5 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bairnardo Posted April 30, 2022 Share Posted April 30, 2022 4 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said: Pish man. The idea that we should care about how Russia feels about this is frankly bizarre. They started it, they invaded a country that was no threat to them. They've rampaged across Ukraine killing innocent men, women and children at will. f**k them. It's like saying America could keep a bit of Vietnam because they would be offended otherwise. It's not about caring how they feel. That is, once again, a really naive angle to come from. It's quite literally about avoiding not only WW3, but a disastrous economic climate for years. If we choose to go beyond the remit of making sure Ukraine is allowed to continue existing, for reasons of powerful men in the West deciding we should, thats not acceptable. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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