Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fullerene]

23 minutes ago, Joe Terrapin said:

Nonsense. Nukes are a deterrent. They are the only reason NATO haven't gone full bhoona into providing Ukraine with all the hardware and personnel to combat the fucking madman because he has Nukes at his disposal.

.. but if nukes really are a deterrent then why did he invade Ukraine?   Why does he need protection from NATO and the EU?  Why does he need a buffer of any kind?

[Sweet Pete]

12 minutes ago, Fullerene said:

.. but if nukes really are a deterrent then why did he invade Ukraine?   Why does he need protection from NATO and the EU?  Why does he need a buffer of any kind?

Correct. If nukes were a deterrent, no-one would invade anyone who had a nuclear ally. Everyone knows that no-one will use them, hence they are moot.

[welshbairn]

If he'd invaded Estonia instead of Ukraine nobody would have nuked Moscow in exchange for their capital cities getting turned into glass. Even if he nuked Tallinn there wouldn't be a nuclear response for the same reason, the nuclear umbrella doesn't exist. If Russia nuked London there is no way America would swap a melted Moscow for a melted New York or Washington. The reason he won't invade Estonia is that he knows how badly his forces would cope with a full blown Nato conventional response. His wee adventure into Ukraine has proven that, so something good might have come out of it.

[Mark Connolly]

2 hours ago, Sweet Pete said:

The Russian Federation has been thoroughly exposed as little more than a pisspoor dictatorship on a par with the ones we're used to seeing in smaller Latin American and Middle Eastern nations. They're just like Cuba, Nicaragua or Iran but with shitter weather and a larger landmass. They're f**k all.

If you swap "Russian Federation" for "Chelsea", and "Cuba, Nicaragua or Iran" for "Bury, Grimsby or Huddersfield", this could easily be a line from The Football Factory

[ICTChris]

Interesting article from a Rolling Stone reporter embedded with Ukrainian marines. Some interesting observations about what Ukrainians require to continue to hold off or reverse Russian advances in the South and East.

https://www.rollingstone.com/politics/politics-features/ukraine-war-marines-front-lines-1334770/

 

There are also reports, however reliable they are, that significant numbers of Russian units are unable to redeploy or that Russian troops have refused to fight. Allegedly 50-60 paratroopers refused to go to Ukraine and were dismissed from the army. 

 

 https://www.themoscowtimes.com/2022/04/07/60-russian-paratroopers-refuse-to-fight-in-ukraine-reports-a77265

[jagfox]

On 07/04/2022 at 21:23, Mr Waldo said:

A long, but very interesting, read on why Russians think and act the way they do.

I got the link from a Russian citizen on a defencen forum He thinks it's very accurate.

Was an interesting read, especially the bits on communication and lying. It is fine to lie on behalf of the inner circle which couples with the piece on Information Geopolitics. Also the likes of Galloway and other trolls are there to divert us from more insidious messages.

[Thane of Cawdor]

19 hours ago, Detournement said:

Paul Mason and Peter Tatchell led a march today demanding the UK declares war on Russia. 

Mason should do a George Orwell and join Azov.

 

I don't understand the equivalence. My recollection of Homage to Catalonia is that POUM, the faction supported by Orwell, was a Marxist group with strong Anarchist leanings. I haven't seen any suggestion here that this is the political philosophy of Azov. But no doubt you know better.

[welshbairn]

 

[jagfox]

 

 

[Newbornbairn]

Aye, well their other goal was to be in Kiev in 2 days. How did that work out for them?

[Fullerene]

56 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Aye, well their other goal was to be in Kiev in 2 days. How did that work out for them?

They must have chickened out.

[Newbornbairn]

[ICTChris]

This Russian offensive has a greater chance of success than the initial invasion. It’s in a more limited territory, it’s closer to resupply lines, it’s got a more unified command structure.  Ukraine has taken significant losses during the war and could be stretched for manpower and resources.

The Ukrainians have their advantages too. Their soldiers in the Donbas are the best, most experienced in their armed forces. Strategically they’ve done well there since the start of the war - the only major loss so far is that of Izyum, and that’s a relatively small city that took the Russians weeks to fully capture. They are being resupplied by the West (Tanks apparently delivered today by Poland) and are also going to be able to redeploy forces to the Donbas. The Russians may have difficulty redeploying units from around Kyiv who have taken heavy casualties and it’s unclear if they are able to change their tactics effectively.

[welshbairn]

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

This Russian offensive has a greater chance of success than the initial invasion. It’s in a more limited territory, it’s closer to resupply lines, it’s got a more unified command structure.  Ukraine has taken significant losses during the war and could be stretched for manpower and resources.

The Ukrainians have their advantages too. Their soldiers in the Donbas are the best, most experienced in their armed forces. Strategically they’ve done well there since the start of the war - the only major loss so far is that of Izyum, and that’s a relatively small city that took the Russians weeks to fully capture. They are being resupplied by the West (Tanks apparently delivered today by Poland) and are also going to be able to redeploy forces to the Donbas. The Russians may have difficulty redeploying units from around Kyiv who have taken heavy casualties and it’s unclear if they are able to change their tactics effectively.

I think the Russians thought that attacking Kiev would pull experienced Ukrainians away from the Donbas and make expanding and consolidating territory fairly easy, especially after their first shock that taking Kiev would be a lot more difficult than dropping a few parachutists and sending a huge convoy down from Belarus. With years of preparation their logistics from Crimea are likely sound, but they might have fucked that up as well as most other things. I doubt they'll be able to encircle the Ukrainians on the Donbas battle front that is supposed to be the strategy, but the southern bits connecting Crimea with Donbas will be difficult to take back for Ukraine. Hopefully that will be a matter for peace talks after an Easter ceasefire, we live in hope for sanity if not justice to return.

[SlipperyP]

Are the Germany trying to bring religion into this by calling it the 'Easter Offensive'? Or they just not want to mention that it's spring?

[Carl Cort's Hamstring]

On 09/04/2022 at 16:09, Day of the Lords said:

Jesus. Their fake news arm is almost as fucking tinpot as their military

Something I've noticed on Twitter in the last month is that the pro-russian bots/trolls/useful idiots are almost exclusively Indian or African. I wonder if their propaganda isn't really aimed at Europe at all, but more towards countries who aren't naturally hostile towards Russia.

[Sweet Pete]

17 minutes ago, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

Something I've noticed on Twitter in the last month is that the pro-russian bots/trolls/useful idiots are almost exclusively Indian or African. I wonder if their propaganda isn't really aimed at Europe at all, but more towards countries who aren't naturally hostile towards Russia.

The Russian Federation supplies arms, equipment and materiel to several countries in those areas, so it's likely a concerted effort.

[Newbornbairn]

15 minutes ago, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

Something I've noticed on Twitter in the last month is that the pro-russian bots/trolls/useful idiots are almost exclusively Indian or African. I wonder if their propaganda isn't really aimed at Europe at all, but more towards countries who aren't naturally hostile towards Russia.

That's exactly what's going on I think. Look at the recent UN vote - the countries that abstained were mainly in Africa and Asia. That's where the Russian propaganda effort is aimed because it might get results. 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

I see the, erm support for denazifiction of Ukraine continues through Russians in Italy. 

Great laugh though eh.

[Detournement]

2 hours ago, Carl Cort's Hamstring said:

Something I've noticed on Twitter in the last month is that the pro-russian bots/trolls/useful idiots are almost exclusively Indian or African. I wonder if their propaganda isn't really aimed at Europe at all, but more towards countries who aren't naturally hostile towards Russia.

Do you think that there might be a particular historical experience which would lead to Africans and Indians having a different outlook on international relations than the average Murdoch/BBC brain Brit?