Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Fullerene]

45 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

I'm begging the people of the UK to try viewing history through the prism of something other than WW2.

Okay.  If the dictators in Argentina had won the Falklands War, they were very likely to have a go at Chile next.  That is why Chile helped the UK in that conflict.

[BFTD]

43 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

Exactly, which is why we're possibly seeing some progress made in the talks.

The 'No surrender, we should fight the Russian orcs to the death' from people standing in London or Washington, or behind a computer screen in Scotland can absolutely get in the bin.

The same bin as "everyone should let the Russian government do what it wants in the hope that they'll stop killing people for a while".

[Sergeant Wilson]

58 minutes ago, invergowrie arab said:

I'm begging the people of the UK to try viewing history through the prism of something other than WW2.

Right, ootside you!

[The DA]

19 hours ago, itzdrk said:

Jeezo

 

 

We've all got a kitchen drawer like that.  Screwdrivers, fuses, batteries, rubber bands, missiles...

[Detournement]

This is what "pro west politician" means. 

[D Angelo Barksdale]

1 hour ago, Granny Danger said:

I don’t see anyone on here arguing this.  Personally I will support the Ukrainian government in whatever decision they take.  But I will not advocate capitulation under the guise of realpolitik.

If the government and people of Ukraine decide to fight on I would admire their willingness to do so.

 

18 minutes ago, BFTD said:

The same bin as "everyone should let the Russian government do what it wants in the hope that they'll stop killing people for a while".

No one on here is suggesting this, or advocating capitulation.

[Hillonearth]

31 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

This is why its stupid letting people go and fight wars where they are more of a hindrance than a help. These are basics but you have these people over there sending all their pictures about how they are ‘there to help’ but essentially only helping the Russians because they are either naive, ill experienced and many seeking attention. 

Yeah, without recent military experience and an elementary understanding of personnel security all you'll likely accomplish by way of doing your bit is to convert yourself and likely those around you into airborne mince.

You can just see some silly naive c**t posting on FB with his geolocation still on: "Having a great time here at the airbase in Yaroviv. Here's me and my new pal Oleg."

[BFTD]

4 minutes ago, Detective Jimmy McNulty said:

No one on here is suggesting this, or advocating capitulation.

So I guess we've got two groups of people arguing against positions that neither of them are arguing for. Interesting.

[Bully Wee Villa]

If Ukraine get peace on the terms suggested in the media, they'll have done pretty well IMO. I had assumed they'd have to recognise Crimea (and maybe the Donbass) as independent/de facto Russian as a bare minimum.

Edited March 21, 2022 by Bully Wee Villa

[Cairn Terrier]

Not sure it's actually ultimately up to the West to decide that. The strength of Ukrainian resolve even in the more Russified east and south has been surprising and that's something that's coming from them. Germany has just arranged a long term contract with Qatar for liquified natural gas and is talking about fast tracking the construction of two LNG terminals and phasing out Russian gas imports by the end of the year. Not a course of action we would be seeing unfolding if the expectation was that a peace deal will be reached along with a rapid return to normality on trade links.

Supposing there was a peace deal tomorrow I don’t think there will be resumption of normal trade links with Russia for a very long time, if ever. It’s not going to be politically acceptable for countries like Germany to be reliant on Russian imports of just about anything.
Russia has really shot it’s self in the foot here, whatever happens they are liable to lose a lot more than they might conceivably gain.

[D Angelo Barksdale]

3 minutes ago, BFTD said:

So I guess we've got two groups of people arguing against positions that neither of them are arguing for. Interesting.

This is P&B after all.

[Benjamin_Nevis]

This is what "pro west politician" means. 

[emoji23][emoji23][emoji23]

[Gordon EF]

14 minutes ago, BFTD said:

So I guess we've got two groups of people arguing against positions that neither of them are arguing for. Interesting.

Much easier to win an argument when you imagine the other person is just saying the most stupid version of whatever their point is though.

Edited March 21, 2022 by Gordon EF

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 hours ago, Newbornbairn said:

Maybe the best thing is not to stop the war. Maybe the best thing is for the Ukrainians to keep bleeding the Russian military dry whilst the world throttles Russia with sanctions. 

 

2 hours ago, ICTChris said:

The Institute for the Study of War published this assessment of the state of the campaign.

https://www.understandingwar.org/backgrounder/russian-offensive-campaign-assessment-march-19

Essentially the initial campaign failed and now we are in a stalemate which could be extremely bloody.  I see that the Ukrainian intelligence service have said that they have indications that Russia is preparing for a general mobilisation, which would mean they are planning for a long-term war.

A bit more nuanced than the Sage of Inverclyde's "I think you'll find" nonsense.

Putin's expectation appears to have been that Russia would just roll in to be welcomed by a populace gagging for "liberation" (at least in some areas). That the Ukrainians, for some reason, are prepared to fight for their country came as a surprise. Long-term attrition may well be on the horizon, but Russia's ability to support this level of engagement will be hampered by international sanctions - assuming these are consistently applied, and maintained. Having to maintain a drawn-out "special operation" while pacifying a domestic population forced into poverty may be a balancing act too far for Putin. 

TL;DR: No idea where we're going, but there's more to this than you'll garner from a thread on a Scots football forum. Not that you'd guess this from the input of our former Covid specialists. To quote Yeats, "The best lack all conviction, while the worst are full of passionate intensity."

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 hours ago, BFTD said:

As many as they're willing to sacrifice themselves. It's not our choice.

They need outside help to defend themselves, but they aren't going to get it, unfortunately. If they believe that enduring this is better than life under a tyrannical madman, I can't say I blame them.

Absolutely. Our chance to do something about this was back in the nineties, when these gangsters - not fucking "oligarchs" - were establishing their wee fiefdoms, aided and abetted by greedy bastárds all across the world wanting their slice of the pie. As with so much of our Foreign Policy in recent decades, we should hang our heads in shame for allowing our leaders to put profit before people.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

2 hours ago, Granny Danger said:

I don’t see anyone on here arguing this.  Personally I will support the Ukrainian government in whatever decision they take.  But I will not advocate capitulation under the guise of realpolitik.

If the government and people of Ukraine decide to fight on I would admire their willingness to do so.

This. It's a decision which I can't imagine having to make, especially for the families who have sought refuge elsewhere having left their husbands, fathers and brothers to fight. Absolutely fucking heartbreaking.

Edited March 21, 2022 by WhiteRoseKillie

[Detournement]

The 'people of Ukraine' don't really get a say do they. It's between the oligarchs and Washington to decide. 

 

[Salt n Vinegar]

2 hours ago, Gordon EF said:

P&B's suggestion for the new Ukrainian national motto - quisque potest me impune lacessere

Greenie for introducing a bit of class into the discussion. Not done Latin since school. 

[Blue Brazil Forever]

10 hours ago, Bairnardo said:

Aye, agreed. But if no one is willing to use force to stop the playground bully from taking lunch money and flushing heids down lavvies, some lunch money and heid flushing is going to have to be conceded. There is no higher level of intervention than full scale international war. There isn't some appeals court or arbitration society we can invoke once Russia chose a course of war. From a morality standpoint we can and should condemn their actions, but if Ukraine are unable to stop them, and the rest of the world is unwilling, then concessions from both sides of the conflict, with the one taking the brunt of the damage and least willing to stomach the cost of continuation likliest to concede the most, is the only logical place you can arrive. 

You don't ever concede anything to a playground bully. The options are (a) to employ superior force so he (she/it?) remembers not to repeat  (b) to go to the heidmaster  (c) to go to the polis  ( D) to expel him. Concession will not stop bullies but simply serves to encourage similar behaviour.

[WhiteRoseKillie]

10 minutes ago, Detournement said:

The 'people of Ukraine' don't really get a say do they. It's between the oligarchs and Washington to decide. 

 

Take the tinfoil off for a bit, lad. There's no "Oligarchs" or yanks fighting in Ukraine. The people are saying, in the clearest and most emphatic way possible that they're not having this.