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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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6 hours ago, Jambomo said:

Putin definitely seems to want to escalate this.
 

Starting to attack other cities is a bit weird because there certainly seems to be at least some evidence he doesn’t have the resources to sustain even the attacks they were already undertaking. Surely the ideal for him is that he went into Ukraine, took the Donbas areas he wanted as quick as he can and then used the forces to occupy them, instead he spreads the already piss poor resources thinner...

If he loses outright, he is unlikely to be able to stay in power for too much longer. Think this has a few more weeks to run minimum as he has nothing to lose by keeping it going in the hope Ukrainian resistance starts to crumble but hopefully I am as wrong about that as I was about the invasion happening on the first page.

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32 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

Who funds GB News?

Someone who was allegedly investigated by the Monoco security services as a potential spy for the Russians. The allegations were made in a parliamentary committee and reported at the time.

Hasten to add he was never arrested or charged on any grounds and I'm sure many people are under investigation and prove to be harmless.

Chandler funds GB news through Dubai based (although they claim to be UK based) pro Brexit think tank. He made a large part of his fortune at a Russian company (despite claiming not to speak Russian) he also claims not to know anyone in the Russian state. Despite the company he was working for being Russian state oil company Gazprom, who's current chairmam was Putin's "First Deputy Prime Minister" between 2008 and 2012.

But I'm sure he is right that he doesn't speak Russian or know anyone from the Russian State. As he has maintained.

Also funding is the American company Discovery Inc.

 

Edited by 101
Clarity
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27 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Both Russian and Ukrainian negotiators saying progress made in the talks. Encouraging.

That’s good news but how do have positive talks with someone who has illegally invaded your country?

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2 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Tell him to f**k off and he fucks off?

Yeah it seems like a pretty daft Q from GD.

You would assume that it means that the answer to "what do you want to stop bombing the shit out of us?" is getting closer to what would be deemed acceptable.

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10 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Tell him to f**k off and he fucks off?

I think that’s unlikely.  Unless there was an outright military defeat of Russia by Ukraine, which is highly unlikely, talks have to happen.  I wonder if Ukraine have a bottom line and if they believe it is strategically beneficial to reveal it at this stage.

Unfortunately I am not an expert in these matters so can only hypothesise.

 

Edited by Granny Danger
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Someone who was allegedly investigated by the Monoco security services as a potential spy for the Russians. The allegations were made in a parliamentary committee and reported at the time.
Hasten to add he was never arrested or charged on any grounds and I'm sure many people are under investigation and prove to be harmless.

As someone who was once under investigation as a potential spy and is harmless in every sense of the word, I can confirm this is true.
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1 hour ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

They haven't banned Tchaikovsky, they've banned the 1812 Overture, a celebration of Russian militarism, featuring cannon fire, that Tchaikovsky himself didn't like. 

Exactly. A massive difference from cancelling Pyotr.

 

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33 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I think that’s unlikely.  Unless there was an outright military defeat of Russia by Ukraine, which is highly unlikely, talks have to happen.  I wonder if Ukraine have a bottom line and if they believe it is strategically beneficial to reveal it at this stage.

Unfortunately I am not an expert in these matters so can only hypothesise.

 

Ukraine are winning just by not giving up. Already seen in some places like GB News that Zelensky is just prolonging the agony of his people and should surrender for their sake. Russia's army is taking a huge reputational hit. Their elite paratroopers were virtually wiped out trying to capture an airport. The super scary Chechens were slaughtered in a drone strike and ambush. Every other day sees their expensive warplanes and helicopters swatted from the sky and their armour offers as much protection as a wet blanket in the face of modern anti-tank weapons. All of this being played out over an internet that was supposedly dominated by Russian hackers and bots.

A war that was expected to be over in hours is heading for it's third week and the Russian military is bleeding out. Putin is sacking Generals all over the place - the ones not being killed in Ukraine by surprisingly accurate ambushes - and is now sacking spy chiefs. Oligarchs and the middle classes are fleeing the country whilst rising protests are brutally repressed. Every day the sanctions bite deeper and Western opinion hardens. For years he's tried to undermine the West, the EU and NATO but they have never been more united than now.

Putin is losing this war. Every day that passes, things get worse for Russia. If I were Zelensky, I'd be demanding he does indeed f**k off because Ukraine will outlast Putin at this rate. 

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8 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Ukraine are winning just by not giving up. Already seen in some places like GB News that Zelensky is just prolonging the agony of his people and should surrender for their sake. Russia's army is taking a huge reputational hit. Their elite paratroopers were virtually wiped out trying to capture an airport. The super scary Chechens were slaughtered in a drone strike and ambush. Every other day sees their expensive warplanes and helicopters swatted from the sky and their armour offers as much protection as a wet blanket in the face of modern anti-tank weapons. All of this being played out over an internet that was supposedly dominated by Russian hackers and bots.

A war that was expected to be over in hours is heading for it's third week and the Russian military is bleeding out. Putin is sacking Generals all over the place - the ones not being killed in Ukraine by surprisingly accurate ambushes - and is now sacking spy chiefs. Oligarchs and the middle classes are fleeing the country whilst rising protests are brutally repressed. Every day the sanctions bite deeper and Western opinion hardens. For years he's tried to undermine the West, the EU and NATO but they have never been more united than now.

Putin is losing this war. Every day that passes, things get worse for Russia. 

Aye, but apart from that...

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15 minutes ago, Newbornbairn said:

Ukraine are winning just by not giving up. Already seen in some places like GB News that Zelensky is just prolonging the agony of his people and should surrender for their sake. Russia's army is taking a huge reputational hit. Their elite paratroopers were virtually wiped out trying to capture an airport. The super scary Chechens were slaughtered in a drone strike and ambush. Every other day sees their expensive warplanes and helicopters swatted from the sky and their armour offers as much protection as a wet blanket in the face of modern anti-tank weapons. All of this being played out over an internet that was supposedly dominated by Russian hackers and bots.

A war that was expected to be over in hours is heading for it's third week and the Russian military is bleeding out. Putin is sacking Generals all over the place - the ones not being killed in Ukraine by surprisingly accurate ambushes - and is now sacking spy chiefs. Oligarchs and the middle classes are fleeing the country whilst rising protests are brutally repressed. Every day the sanctions bite deeper and Western opinion hardens. For years he's tried to undermine the West, the EU and NATO but they have never been more united than now.

Putin is losing this war. Every day that passes, things get worse for Russia. If I were Zelensky, I'd be demanding he does indeed f**k off because Ukraine will outlast Putin at this rate. 

I was initially responding to a post suggesting the talks were going well.  If accurate, it’s a reasonable assumption that both sides are positive.  If your analysis is correct I cannot see the Russians being positive about the talks unless Ukraine is willing to concede on issues of a fairly strategic nature.  Would they be willing to do that at this time?

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28 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:


As someone who was once under investigation as a potential spy and is harmless in every sense of the word, I can confirm this is true.

Me too, just after the fall of the Greek Colonels which shows my age a bit. My flat mate in Patras was decidedly radical though, I don't think making things go bang was beyond him. I was more concerned about being done for working illegally during the interrogation, given that my boots and jeans were covered in building dust.

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Ukraine is performing militarily better than expected but it is still a difficult situation for them. The successes they’ve had have been ambushes and fighting retreats. The situation in the Donbas and the South is difficult and if the fighting continues they will have to make a decision about pulling back Forces there. There are blockades and sieges on the capital and the Kharkiv. Ukrainian losses of men and equipment are significant, especially in the South where one of their Army brigades suffered heavy losses in the first days of the war. Ukrainian forces have regrouped but are really fighting retreats there. 

Russian forces in these areas aren’t really pushing on though, there are issues with the advances - the logistics seem better in the South, probably due to proximity to Crimea bases but there will be a knock on affect from the problems further North.

In the Donbas it’s a hard situation with Mariupol encircled and several settlements in the region completely destroyed. Ukrainian forces managed to take back some villages in a counter attack last night but I don’t think they will manage to hold out a great deal longer. Elsewhere in the Donbas Russian advances haven’t been rapid but they have made some gains.

The Russians have committed all the forces they gathered for the invasion and the US have said they don’t see any evidence of them reinforcing. It’s a massive undertaking for the Russian army and is utilising a huge number of their forces. As a comparison, I read somewhere that during rhe height of US forces in Iraq (2007 troop surge) around 20% of US capabilities were engaged there, the current estimate for Russian capabilities engaged in Ukraine is 55%.  

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15 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I was initially responding to a post suggesting the talks were going well.  If accurate, it’s a reasonable assumption that both sides are positive.  If your analysis is correct I cannot see the Russians being positive about the talks unless Ukraine is willing to concede on issues of a fairly strategic nature.  Would they be willing to do that at this time?

The Russians will present anything they get as a triumph to their domestic audience though. They could be forced out of Ukraine and only remain in Crimea with a promise of referenda in the Donbas but they'd proclaim they'd de-Nazified Ukraine and won a great victory.  Just look at the pish their State TV is putting out in @jagfox OG post

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