Russian invasion of Ukraine

[Inanimate Carbon Rod]

50 minutes ago, Snafu said:

The UK Government is doing exactly what it normally does in a time of crisis.

......checks crisis flow chart.

How much money do we owe Russian banks and businesses?

https://www.nationaldebtclock.co.uk/

 

Meanwhile those billionaires, why are they having luxurious bunkers built in places like New Zealand, do they know something we don't. Was there talk of upsetting the Russians at Davos?

https://www.forbes.com/sites/jimdobson/2020/03/27/billionaire-bunker-owners-are-preparing-for-the-ultimate-underground-escape/?sh=45ff51834e12

 

 

 

The world is absolutely fucked tbh. 

45 minutes ago, virginton said:

It's not whataboutery, it is a very straightforward test of your assertion that a state has the free right to choose its alliance and nobody can object. As opposed to your bluster afterwards, which is both whataboutery and an enormous word salad. 

So answer the question(s) please: Taiwan in NATO - yes or no, and why? 

Taiwan wouldn’t be accepted into NATO, but i do believe that the US has some kind of statutory obligation to defend Taiwan, which essentially gives it NATO protection without the status. 

[welshbairn]

26 minutes ago, virginton said:

Or you could deduce from the actual fucking war and threat of actual global nuclear annihilation that it was a really fucking stupid idea to continue and indefinitely expand an anti-Soviet alliance after its purpose had been fulfilled.

You are reading backwards Russian intentions to 25 years ago, before they were actually boxed into a (very large) geopolitical corner. There was no inevitability to this outcome. The genesis of a belligerent and revisionist Russia isn't Putin - it is NATO's folly of incorporating eastern Europe, while setting up Ukraine as a hostage to fortune on its extremity. Putin is now attempting to take and use that hostage, for which he should absolutely be condemned. It takes at least two parties to cause an international crisis though, and the warnings were given loud and clear to Western leaders at the time. 

I agree that NATO and the EU playing footsie with Ukraine and Georgia was dumb, they were never going to take them into the fold anyway, but if the Baltics hadn't got cover I'm sure what's happening to Ukraine now would already have happened in one or all three, with some manufactured excuse of a persecuted Russian minority to get a land bridge to Kaliningrad.

[101]

1 minute ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

 

Taiwan wouldn’t be accepted into NATO, but i do believe that the US has some kind of statutory obligation to defend Taiwan, which essentially gives it NATO protection without the status. 

Similar to South Korea I guess.

[Detournement]

22 minutes ago, Salvo Montalbano said:

Surely Russia would have expected to have won the whole war by now 

I doubt it. 

It took three weeks for the Iraq War invasion to be 'won' and that was in a smaller country, with very little defence technology and no intelligence capabilities, when the invaders were using shock and awe tactics and destroying as much civilian infrastructure as possible. 

[renton]

2 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

The world is absolutely fucked tbh. 

Taiwan wouldn’t be accepted into NATO, but i do believe that the US has some kind of statutory obligation to defend Taiwan, which essentially gives it NATO protection without the status. 

Taiwan is to semiconductor manufacturing as Saudi Arabia is to oil. 50% of all microchip production is there, and 90% of all high end process node manufacturing (I.e. processers in servers) are there.

Hard to see how the world could tolerate Taiwan getting smashed up in that scenario. Christ, if I was Taiwan I'd probably be the one threatening to level the fabs if one PRC soldier landed on the island.

[Dee Man]

24 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

You need a hot mug of calm the hell down.

 

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

 

 

[BFTD]

1 hour ago, Dee Man said:

I hope Vlad nukes Falkirk and Maryhill, although no-one would probably notice any difference in Maryhill tbf. 

Can tell it's been a while since you've seen Falkirk.

[Lofarl]

So this big old tank column.  Why is it not a smouldering pile of wreckage like the road to Basra?  Is it a psy op thing to let the Russians know and even the troops in the tanks know that they could be wiped out soon.

 

Its hardly likely that the Ukrainians will just let them trundle on down to Kiev.

[Dee Man]

4 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

We're a very long way from that right now.

I've just been reading this thread from the start and stating personal opinions as facts is probably not a very good idea tbphwy. There is nothing that can be confidently predicted right now.

[Dee Man]

3 minutes ago, Lofarl said:

So this big old tank column.  Why is it not a smouldering pile of wreckage like the road to Basra?  Is it a psy op thing to let the Russians know and even the troops in the tanks know that they could be wiped out soon.

 

Its hardly likely that the Ukrainians will just let them trundle on down to Kiev.

I was thinking today how there has been a disappointing lack of roadside IEDs. I was yearning for the good old days of the Iraq war. 

[yoda]

8 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

but i do believe that the US has some kind of statutory obligation to defend Taiwan, which essentially gives it NATO protection without the status. 

It's not (as far as I'm aware but it's been a while since I've covered this) written in stone that the US will actively defend Taiwan. It's vague language about providing them with the means to defend themselves without expressly stating that they'll intervene. "Strategic ambiguity" has been the policy since 1979.

They had to backtrack on Biden's comments a few months ago about a "commitment" to Taiwan. 

[beefybake]

1 hour ago, virginton said:

It's not whataboutery, it is a very straightforward test of your assertion that a state has the free right to choose its alliance and nobody else in the international community can object. As opposed to your bluster afterwards, which is both whataboutery and an enormous word salad. 

So answer the question(s) please: Taiwan in NATO - yes or no, and why? 

Drivel.

[Melanius Mullarkey]

8 minutes ago, Dee Man said:

I was thinking today how there has been a disappointing lack of roadside IEDs. I was yearning for the good old days of the Iraq war. 

Moved on from IEDs m8. It’s all drones and cyber warfare these days. Fucking millenials.

[ICTChris]

2 minutes ago, oaksoft said:

 

Russia are very lucky that Ukraine have no airforce.

That 40 miles convoy, apparently containing most of Russia's armed forces, is just a sitting duck for aerial bombardment.

 

Ukraine does have air power, they have been using it pretty well all things considered.  They also seem capable of downing Russian helicopters and their air defence is still operational.  They seem to be using their drones as well.  For how much longer this continues is another thing.

I assume that the big convoy is well protected against drones, air strikes, artillery etc.

Reports that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are now encircled.

[Detournement]

We need to hear from these guys to find out how keen they are on nuclear war these days. 

[welshbairn]

3 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Reports that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are now encircled.

I reckon the Greeks will break out and send a runner to Sparta for assistance, only to find out it's now a Water Park.

[ICTChris]

5 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

I reckon the Greeks will break out and send a runner to Sparta for assistance, only to find out it's now a Water Park.

Bit of a jog from Mariupol to Sparta.

[ICTChris]

I heard someone mention Marvel movies earlier, Disney has suspended all film distribution in Russia.

[RedEd]

10 minutes ago, ICTChris said:

Reports that Ukrainian forces in Mariupol are now encircled.

Time to destroy the port installations and sink a few blockships.