Russian invasion of Ukraine

[bennett]

1 hour ago, TommyDickFingers said:

 

 

 

It takes months for pilots to train on new planes, it's not like saying here's some Typhoons or Rafales lads, go get em.

 

[Miguel Sanchez]

Just had my first experience of the news since this all started and got to hear some of the pronunciations

I didn't realise the entire country had been saying Roman Abramovich wrong for the past twenty years but we all must have been!

[yoda]

From Tooze (The Great And The Powerful):

Quote

It isn’t the financial sanctions alone that explain this dangerous escalation, but the combination of all three factors - Russian military frustration, increasingly emphatic Western commitment to backing Ukraine’s remarkable resistance and the sanctions on top. This forces Putin to look for a qualitatively different means to respond to an increasingly existential situation.

--

As far as the economy is concerned, the central question is what will happen in Russia what will happen in Moscow and in financial markets on Monday?

Will economic and financial chaos add a qualitatively new element to the escalatory logic. Clearly, at this point the West really is aiming to inflict heavy damage. But we should be prepared for the fallout, forgive the phrase, if things get chaotic next week. Are we ready for a further escalation of nuclear threats?

--

In 2014 Russia suffered a devaluation of massive proportions, but the sanctions were much less intense and the military battle was going in its favor. We have nothing that tells us how Putin’s nuclear-armed regime reacts under this kind of financial pressure, when it is also facing an existential military crisis.

 

An interesting read (link) but from before the latest round of sanctions aimed at the RCB were announced.

The stuff from clever people seems to point to bank runs and a currency collapse at some point soon.

[Fullerene]

6 minutes ago, Thane of Cawdor said:

I've read A Short History of Tractors in Ukrainian, don't recall any mention of this kind of scenario. Would still recommend.

I recall a story about Nikita Kruschchev visiting a tractor factory in the Soviet Union.  The approach was very much high productivity but nothing works (i.e. fulfill the quota at all costs and forget about quality).

He was asked to test drive a tractor.  It would not start.  Nor the next.  Eventually he found a tractor that would start but could only go in reverse.

He remarked "the good news is it moves".

 

[bennett]

1 hour ago, Sherrif John Bunnell said:

Years of taking steel chairs to the skull have taken their toll on Kane.

 

He looks completely different on Emmerdale farm.

[Zen Archer (Raconteur)]

9 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’m holding out for A Short History of Tractors in Ukrainian II if you don’t mind.

[TommyDickFingers]

4 minutes ago, bennett said:

It takes months for pilots to train on new planes, it's not like saying here's some Typhoons or Rafales lads, go get em.

They will get surplus MIG 29'S  from the EU.

Take a stab at who already flys Mig 29's 

[Melanius Mullarkey]

12 minutes ago, Granny Danger said:

I’m holding out for A Short History of Tractors in Ukrainian II if you don’t mind.

Think Bonnie Tyler’s already done it, pal.

[williemillersmoustache]

4 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

 

It takes months for pilots to train on new planes, it's not like saying here's some Typhoons or Rafales lads, go get em.

 

Aye but the Poles and Bulgarians have Mig29s. I'm sure they've thought of this stuff. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

I have read a lot of his posts as it goes. I know he's very critical of NATO and the USA which isn't particularly helpful right now but also... not wrong? Obviously Russia has committed an atrocious act and should be condemned for doing so, but both generally, in failing to realise that it is no longer 1992, and specifically in hanging Ukraine out to dry there is a lot of failure there. Again, this might be an emotional time but this isn't a controversial or treasonous opinion, nor does it minimize the criminality of Russia or solidarity with Ukrainian people. A lot of serious people have been discussing it, including experts invited on the BBC. 
As for the rest, de escalation is very obviously bilateral, I don't think anyone is suggesting otherwise and it's odd you keep implying so. And guerilla warfare usually ends with large numbers of guerillas, their friends and families being tortured to death so I'm not sure anyone advocating that has the best interests of Ukrainian people at heart.
There's a lot of romanticism involved in our discussion of this in the UK which personally I find odd. I have a lot of admiration for ordinary Ukrainian people deciding to stand up and resist this invasion, but I don't know if I feel comfortable demanding they do so to fit my idea of how this should end. A lot of naivety too, it was perplexing to see the BBC broadcast the faces of people quite likely to soon be under Russian occupation making Molotov cocktails the other day.
To reiterate, because I'm sure it will be ignored written above, I unequivocally condemn Russia's actions and, if for some reason I was allowed to pick, want Ukraine to win this. I also think the options other than the proposed peace talks going well are terrifying for Ukraine and the world, and don't feel it's my place to start talking about people 1000s of miles away fighting a guerilla war against a professional army, whether it would be admirable or not 

I did say the threat of.

Ultimately it's up to the Ukrainians themselves if they want to lay down arms - I perfectly understand, given Putin's previous, why they would be reluctant to do so until a brokered ceasefire and deal is actually achieved.

I am also under no illusions that any deal will give concessions to Russia - that's Realpolitik. But to be in a position to negotiate the Ukrainians clearly need something to show Putin that they won't be pushovers in any deal.

I still think there will be some face-saving for Putin where both he and Zekensky can claim victory.

And let's be honest, a lot of the promises regards arms etc from the EU et al is more to do with showing Putin that the West wasn't going to roll over like he thought it would - tbqh the economic sanctions should focus his attention more in the short run.

[renton]

8 minutes ago, bennett said:

 

 

It takes months for pilots to train on new planes, it's not like saying here's some Typhoons or Rafales lads, go get em.

 

Yeah, but some of the Eastern NATO states will still have inventory of the same ex-Soviet aircraft that Ukraine has...

[Hillonearth]

1 minute ago, TommyDickFingers said:

They will get surplus MIG 29'S  from the EU.

Take a stab at who already flys Mig 29's 

Just a case of painting blue and yellow over this, and Bob's your uncle..

 

[Genuine Hibs Fan]

2 minutes ago, DeeTillEhDeh said:

 

 

I did say the threat of.

Ultimately it's up to the Ukrainians themselves if they want to lay down arms - I perfectly understand, given Putin's previous, why they would be reluctant to do so until a brokered ceasefire and deal is actually achieved.

I am also under no illusions that any deal will give concessions to Russia - that's Realpolitik. But to be in a position to negotiate the Ukrainians clearly need something to show Putin that they won't be pushovers in any deal.

I still think there will be some face-saving for Putin where both he and Zekensky can claim victory.

 

Yeah I agree with all of this tbh. My hope is that between the pretty incredible Ukrainian resistance, the protests at home still going strong and the economy potentially tanking they may already have shown Putin it's not worth continuing.

I thought the 4500 number of casualties going around was likely a massive exaggeration but Russian state media I think confirmed it earlier, alongside eyebrow raising numbers of helis, aircraft and tanks out of action. The logistical issues they're having as well, combined with how efficient the invasion looked that first day suggest to me they thought this would be over by now. 

[San Starko Rover]

1 hour ago, Zetterlund said:

Is there nobody left still sane enough to say hang on a minute, maybe we should try to deescalate this? It's just a constant pile-on of everyone promising to pump more and more weapons into the conflict and adding more sanctions & bans.

What's the desired result of firing more weapons in? Without them, Ukraine may well lose and tens of thousands will be dead on both sides. With them, Ukraine might 'win' but it will drag on longer with even more dead. 

If the sociopaths who run governments and political institutions manage to engineer a situation where we're on the cusp of lobbing nukes across the globe at each other, then us normal folks need to kick the doors in and physically remove them.

No one is lobbing nukes at anyone unless they’re totally insane as that’s game over for everyone. There’s a reason no one has used one in anger since WWII because it’d be the act of an utter lunatic and if Putin is generally that insane everyone is fucked regardless.
 

Your idea of deescalation seems to be give Putin exactly what he wants and f**k the Ukrainians.  Ukraine aren’t the aggressor here they’ve done nothing to justify a Russian invasion of their sovereignty so they have every right to defend themselves, without aid from other nations they’d be lambs to the slaughter for the Red Army. 
 

So we do nothing and Putin slaughters a few thousand Ukrainians, then what? Will we let him attack Georgia, Finland, Sweden, the Baltic states at what point do we take action and risk upsetting him? 
 

Pumping weapons in is 100% the answer as it gives the Ukraine a fighting chance of repelling the Russians, will more people die? Almost certainly but only a heavy casualty of Russians will cause them to withdraw and reconsider attacking anyone else. I’m damn sure if it was us under attack by a vastly superior foreign power we’d want the other nations to give us weapons to defend ourselves and impose sanctions on them or perhaps we’d just surrender as more people would die if we escalated it.   

[Lex]

To paraphrase Von Bismarck, the only politics Putin understands is the politics of blood and iron.
To paraphrase Limmy, he’s not backing down, he’s doubling down.
Fight him or watch. That’s the two options.

[bennett]

8 minutes ago, renton said:

Yeah, but some of the Eastern NATO states will still have inventory of the same ex-Soviet aircraft that Ukraine has...

 

11 minutes ago, williemillersmoustache said:

Aye but the Poles and Bulgarians have Mig29s. I'm sure they've thought of this stuff. 

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

 

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful. 

 

 

 

[Bully Wee Villa]

36 minutes ago, Ray Patterson said:

Here's Zelensky playing Paddington Bear in the Ukrainian version of the film:
 

 

Thank f**k it wasn't Winnie the Pooh or they'd have China invading, too.

[renton]

Just now, bennett said:

 

 

Basically obsolete stuff, especially if coming up against the newer Russian fighters. 

 

Surely the western countries operating a no fly zone over Ukraine would be more useful. 

 

 

 

There are degrees of obsolete, and a Western No fly zone is a really quick way of starting WW3.

[tarapoa]

A lot of the early wisdom was that Kyiv would be Russian-controlled by today (Sunday).

Maybe just delaying the inevitable ahead of the ante being upped in terms of the level of weapons deployed, but the fact it isn’t is a good effort so far from the Ukrainians in defending their capital and other major cities.

[Lex]

A lot of the early wisdom was that Kyiv would be Russian-controlled by today (Sunday).

Maybe just delaying the inevitable ahead of the ante being upped in terms of the level of weapons deployed, but the fact it isn’t is a good effort so far from the Ukrainians in defending their capital and other major cities.

Yeah great effort, and I don’t think Putin really expected it, so he opened with the left jab expecting a knock out.
Never got it, right hook coming next week.