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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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3 minutes ago, virginton said:

There is no purpose in invading Kazakhstan and incurring the very real costs of invasion and occupation because Kazakhstan is not an oppositional regime positioned on Russia's doorstep and demanding NATO backing. It is not a game of post-Soviet Risk. 

A lot of this is to do with internal Russian politics, it is a poor country and Putin's popularity has been waning. A good war and him becoming a conquering hero restoring post glories gets his approval ratings back through the roof again, a good war spirit is also good for the economy. I'm not saying he's going into these countries next week or something. It took eight years between the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine. Point is he now knows he can invade any country that is not in NATO and get away with it. So, why wouldn't he?

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5 minutes ago, Captain Saintsible said:

Lex is putting his covid tin foil hat to good use here  

Think you've got me mixed up with someone else there? COVID tin foil hat?

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I doubt Putin wants to establish a formal superstate along USSR lines. He's already got Belarus, Armenia (and Azerbaijan?), plus the Eurasians under varying degrees of Russian influence and prioritises their governments suppressing internal opposition.

He attacked in Georgia when it struck-out and has done so in Ukraine, initially over Crimea and now more broadly.

He couldn't handle the Baltic states in the same way as they belong to NATO.

How many ex-Soviet states have we left... Moldova?

Edited by HibeeJibee
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21 minutes ago, AlbionSaint said:

What evidence do you have that Putin is intending to invade another country? This conflict has been going on since the CIA sponsored coup in 2014.

I initially read that as 'CIS sponsored cup' 

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2 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Kazakhstan may seem irrelevant now, but Ukraine probably did twenty years ago. It's the longest contiguous border in the world and it's indefensible land with millions of Russians on both sides.

It's not impossible that Putin thinks shoring up his southern border is a good idea,with a view to medium term thinking.

They might be worried about Khazakhstan's increasingly friendly relations with China, until the latest bother anyway.

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7 minutes ago, Lex said:

A lot of this is to do with internal Russian politics, it is a poor country and Putin's popularity has been waning. A good war and him becoming a conquering hero restoring post glories gets his approval ratings back through the roof again,

There is no such thing as internal Russian politics, at least one that concerns popularity and approval ratings. This is all just armchair, pop-psychology, wishful thinking from Western 'analysts' keen to portray its government as bending to popular approval because that's how democracies work. 

Thousands of Russian sons coming home in urns because of the Kievan Rus is not a masterful vote-winner either. 

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a good war spirit is also good for the economy.

Lol wut

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I'm not saying he's going into these countries next week or something. It took eight years between the annexation of Crimea and the invasion of Ukraine. Point is he now knows he can invade any country that is not in NATO and get away with it. So, why wouldn't he?

Because the strategic and security benefits for invading fucking Kyrgyzstan are nowhere near as high as opposed Ukraine - while the very real costs remain in place. That's how rational actors work and there's no reason to believe that Putin's worldview is irrational. 

Edited by vikingTON
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1 hour ago, George Parr said:

Some quite dramatic scrambling now from the Richard Burgon quisling-types as Russian tanks encircle Kharkiv.

 

Get Russia Today off the air, get the russian assets seized, immediately deport the oligarchs and take a fucking stand. Boris let this scumbag use chemical weapons in the UK without response, so of course the UK will do nothing. 

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6 minutes ago, DiegoDiego said:

Kazakhstan may seem irrelevant now, but Ukraine probably did twenty years ago. It's the longest contiguous border in the world and it's indefensible land with millions of Russians on both sides.

It's not impossible that Putin thinks shoring up his southern border is a good idea,with a view to medium term thinking.

It's extremely doubtful considering they're described as allies with close economic and political ties.

Maybe if there's a (non Western sponsored obvs) coup and they apply to join NATO it might happen.

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3 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Get Russia Today off the air, get the russian assets seized, immediately deport the oligarchs and take a fucking stand. Boris let this scumbag use chemical weapons in the UK without response, so of course the UK will do nothing. 

Boris wasn't PM then. It was May.

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Also they can't seize Russian oligarch assets without every other oligarch using London as a safe haven deciding to move their assets.

It's the same thing with RT, if it loses it license then the BBC and British NGOs will be on their way home from Russia.

Edited by Detournement
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4 minutes ago, Inanimate Carbon Rod said:

Get Russia Today off the air, get the russian assets seized, immediately deport the oligarchs and take a fucking stand.

All the first thing would do is hand Putin a propaganda victory and possibly endanger foreign journalists in Russia. The other things won't happen for obvious reasons.

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