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Russian invasion of Ukraine


Sonam

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https://www.theguardian.com/commentisfree/2022/feb/23/putin-narrative-ukraine-master-key-crisis-nato-expansionism-frozen-conflict

This is the only analysis I've seen in the UK media that hasn't been cliché-riddled nonsense. It's possible that events on the ground will escalate but this is closest to the mark for what has happened so far this week and why. 

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44 minutes ago, AlbionSaint said:

The first casualty in war is the truth. I don't trust either side's propaganda media, but if you think the West is somehow virtuous after all the lies they told us about weapons of mass destruction in Iraq, more fool you.

 

I don't particularly trust George Galloway either 

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3 minutes ago, AlbionSaint said:

Galloway (~19.40): "That drooling halfwit, wondering around the corridors of the White House in his pyjamas and his dressing gown, unable to find the bathroom..." 🤣

He's funny 

I'll give you that

I'll watch rt at times 

At the moment its unwatchable 

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3 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

He's the new Lord Haw Haw.

Recently discovered the original was ultra staunch, quietly shipped out of Ireland after helping the Black and Tans murder a nationalist priest as a teenager. 

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Then why has Russia not already absorbed Belarus, Georgia or Kazakhstan? The same conditions apply to those states and Russian policy differs massively in each case.
Putin is not actually playing some post-Soviet version of a Risk map. 

Because Belarus is a strong ally, and Georgia and Kazakhstan don't border EU states, neither of which apply to Ukraine.

When Georgia did cozy up to the EU (and you saw EU flags up all over Georgia before 2010) he invaded and made sure Western powers wouldn't intrude further. There's not been the same level of backing down following Crimea or Donbas, so he's looking for other ways to further his objective.
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Putin might have had more success at keeping his satellites close if he was better at picking puppets who could keep the locals happy. Lukashenko won't survive in power forever in Belarus and Yanukovych was a terrible pick for Ukraine. He's accused of moving $70 Billion out of the Ukraine treasury while in power. Putin's got a self destructive penchant for greedy men who do what their told. What happens in Kazakhstan could be interesting after we find out was going on with the  Nazarbayev family.

https://www.theguardian.com/world/2014/feb/23/viktor-yanukovych-ukraine-secret-documents

 

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10 minutes ago, AlbionSaint said:

Further, the process of transformation, even if it brings revolutionary change, is likely to be a long one, absent some catastrophic and catalyzing event – like a new Pearl Harbor."

That phrase could have made by any observer, from whatever perspective, since 1941. As a gotcha it's profoundly lame. As is your position that seems to be that because America has done some very bad things it's fine for Russia to do similar. It's fine to condemn both.

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2 hours ago, AlbionSaint said:

I'm not sure an full-scale invasion will take place. Obviously I'm not privy to intelligence and I'm speculating, but I think Russia will only want a few strategic areas - maybe land to the north of Crimea so they can resolve the water problem there, retake the full territory of the Donetsk and Luhansk oblasts, and maybe Odessa. 

Other eastern oblasts, where Russian is spoken, may also seek independence, so they could be added, but I'm not sure how likely that is.

If they do take other territory, I think they'd struggle to maintain it, so besides hunting war criminals I can't see the point.

Not sure you are correct after listening to Putins address a couple of days ago he did go on a bit of an insane rant about how Ukraine was Russian territory historically and does not have the right to exist.

If that is his mindset then first the Russian supporting areas obviously but then no doubt he will want to go all the way and try to retake the country.

Which will result in dreadful losses for the Russians and surely current senior serving Generals would point that out to him.

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Looking at flight radar later yesterday afternoon there was RAF and USAF surveillance aircraft over Ukraine at the same time pretty much.

The American a bit further eastvthan the RAF one though it would be interesting to know what further information was picked up by them.

Would imagine there will be a fair few more such flights to come I imagine.

 

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