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Russian invasion of Ukraine


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First post,. normally just read here instead of type. Couldn't find a thread on this, wondered what's everyone's thoughts?

Sounds like it's kicking off next week. Will this be over quickly or could things get messy, will other countries be getting involved? Should we be worried? 

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Famous last words possibly but think the full scale invasion scenario is being way overhyped by the western media. The buildup is probably more about Russia warning the Ukrainian government that attempting to use newly acquired Turkish drone technology to retake the Donbas militarily would have dire consequences for them. 

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Japanese have told its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately and South Korea has banned travel to Ukraine 

For a long time I thought this was all just a big bluff from Russia…. But now, I genuinely think it’s going to happen. 

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Just now, Clown Job said:

Japanese have told its citizens to leave Ukraine immediately and South Korea has banned travel to Ukraine 

For a long time I thought this was all just a big bluff from Russia…. But now, I genuinely think it’s going to happen. 

If it does, nothing will happen, and it'll be Crimea MK2. There's not going to be a war regardless of what happens. 

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Think Putin's overplayed his hand and will pull back after claiming victory with some minor concession from the West. Doubt he ever intended to occupy Ukraine, just maybe formally annex the Donbass, but the price for that would likely be too high now.

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9 minutes ago, welshbairn said:

Think Putin's overplayed his hand and will pull back after claiming victory with some minor concession from the West. Doubt he ever intended to occupy Ukraine, just maybe formally annex the Donbass, but the price for that would likely be too high now.

Don’t they believe Ukraine is Russian though, they’re one people?

Similar to China’s claim on Taiwan 

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31 minutes ago, Clown Job said:

Don’t they believe Ukraine is Russian though, they’re one people?

Similar to China’s claim on Taiwan 

Think most of them have no problem accepting that the Uniate (i.e. basically Roman Catholic but with an Orthodox type church service) part of western Ukraine around Lviv isn't Russian and can more or less accept that the former Cossack areas around Kiev that were under Polish rule up to the 18th century are Ukrainian if they want to be.

The more heavily Russian speaking areas that were former Tatar lands which were populated by Slavs over the last 250 years or so further east and along the Black Sea coast not so much though. Suspect Putin was very surprised that more of those areas such as Kharkov and Odessa didn't rebel in 2014. He tends to drone on a lot about Lenin causing problems by handing them over to the Ukrainian SSR.

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There won't be a war, Putin is just sabre rattling.

What might happen is the East of Ukraine Russians might find themselves with a lot of nice weaponry courtesy of Russia. In the Bosnian War the Yugoslav army supposedly left Bosnia but gave all its weaponry to the Bosnian Serbs. Putin is just doing a Milosevic here.

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