2021 Playoff Picture

[Swarley]

Oh hello there, just registering a 3% (or so) interest in this thread!

[lichtie23]

NFC 

[lichtie23]

AFC

[lichtie23]

So with week 14 in the books and only 4 weeks of the regular season remaining the playoff picture looks like this. 
 

In the NFC the Packers are the new number 1 seed after the Cardinals loss to the Rams. Arizona now drop to 3rd seed with the defending champion Buccaneers now at 2. The 49ers (6th) and Washington (7th) swap seeds.

In the AFC the Patriots stay top seed with Tennessee at 2. The Chiefs jump the Ravens into 3rd. The Colts are the biggest movers jumping into the seeds at the expense of the Bengals. There are 5 teams at 7-6 as it stands 

[Boo Khaki]

Think the Division winners are all pretty much set, with the exception of the AFC North where I think everyone except Pitt is still a legit contender, especially so if the Ravens' injury crisis continues. I think the Cards will hold on in the AFC West. Wildcards are a mess though. Still think there's a decent chance the Titans end up with 1st seed in the AFC, and while I no longer think the Chargers can win the West (thanks covid), I think it's important that they win 3 of 4 and book the 5th seed because the only way I can see them getting through a road WC game is if they play the AFC North champ, again.

I've played around with the ESPN playoff machine quite a bit this week, and to be honest I think the teams holding the playoff positions right now are pretty much what we'll get come January. Despite the number of teams that are one game out, I think WFT and San Fran will hold on in the NFC, Buffalo in the AFC, and the only thing I really see as still up for grabs is which AFC North team wins the division and likely 4th seed, and which runner up bags a 10-7 Wildcard spot. That's how I see it unfolding anyway.

[Brummie Clyde]

AFC North is definitely the most wide open, but agree the Steelers seem the weakest. Browns should have won it, but seem to lose every big game.

Bengals and Ravens have struggled lately too though.

[Boo Khaki]

Bears officially eliminated this week.

Colts not-altogether-surprising win over the Pats has shaken things up a bit, as has the Browns somehow losing to the Raiders. Browns could theoretically go 3-0 down the stretch and win the North, but I think their Covid/injury list has finally done them in. Bengals should be favourites from here on in, but if there's any team that persistently shits the bed when they are favoured for something, it's Cinci. Colts I think have the inside march on the 5th seed, but they have a tough game coming up against a wilting Cardinals team and the Chargers could conceivably go 3-0 and seize the 5th. I've revised my opinion of the Titans because I'd forgotten what I'd said earlier about Tannehill never being capable of carrying that team on his own back. I think that unless Henry comes back in immediate beast mode they are going to continue struggle and the Colts could conceivably pinch that division. Bills should be doing much better than they are, and despite having to go to NE I think they should still hang on to the 7th seed. If that's the case then there's a strong possibility they may have to travel to NE again in the WC round, and that's a match-up I'd like to see because I don't see Buffalo losing three times in one season to the Pats.

There is a hilarious scenario that sees the Chargers still end up with the 1st Seed in the AFC and both KC and NE missing the playoffs altogether, but it involves about 20 unlikely results all happening together. 

[Brummie Clyde]

AFC definitely more exciting than the NFC on terms of who will get in.

NFC pretty much sewn up for division champions, apart from the West.

[Boo Khaki]

1 hour ago, Brummie Clyde said:

AFC definitely more exciting than the NFC on terms of who will get in.

NFC pretty much sewn up for division champions, apart from the West.

I'm not sure it is tbh. 

It would take a good few upsets for the 7 teams currently in the AFC playoff spots not to be the actual 7, with the caveat that the North is still open to be won by anyone. In all likelihood it should be settled this weekend in the Cinci v Baltimore fixture, so I think you could substitute the Ravens for the Bengals and that's about it. Colts have one remaining difficult fixture, Cardinals this week, but other than that they should win their remaining two, but they were swept by the Titans already, and Tenn has Houston in week 18 so one win over San Fran or Miami should see them seal the division. Chargers have three winnable fixtures and are practically guaranteed a playoff spot with two wins, and the Bills, despite having to play NE, have two easily winnable games to end the season. Should they actually win in NE then I think they win the division, and NE is a WC at worst.  Net result is that all teams currently in the 5,6,7 spots should make the playoffs with relative ease due to finishing 10-7 at worst. The reason is that all the 7-7 teams, even if they win out, will still struggle to get a spot due to tiebreakers. I don't see the NFC North runner up squeaking in, because I don't think they'll be 10-7, and their conference records aren't great. I see the AFC as being about jockeying for seeds, North winner aside, not about who will make it and who wont.

NFC however - West is still totally up in the air despite Arizona looking like it would walk to the 1st seed a few weeks ago. They could easily lose to the Colts this weekend. The Rams have three tricky opponents coming up but could conceivably win out. They could also conceivably lose all three games, so even San Fran isn't out of the running should the Cardinals slump turn into an all-out choke. 49'ers should make a WC at the very least. 5th seed should go to the West runner up, but the 7th is still wide open. Eagles have the inside track thanks to a head-to-head victory over the Saints and an easier run-in than the Vikes, but the Saints look to have the most winnable remaining three games of the lot. WFT isn't mathematically out of it, but may as well be.

I think that there are 8 AFC teams still in realistic contention, because I don't see Pitt or Cleveland doing much from here on and Denver, Miami, and LV's routes are ridiculous longshots, whereas there are three NFC teams in a dogfight for the 7th seed giving 9 teams in total still fighting it out.

You could make the case that the Steelers are still very much in contention on record and the fact the North appears to be wide open, but having seen them a few times recently I honestly can't see them pulling it off. They look like a mediocre team with a mediocre QB, not some sleeping giant that just needs to shake a funk and get going. One thing is for sure - If Denver, Miami, or LV makes the playoffs, then it's going to involve some interesting fuckery that sees KC, LAC, or NE totally collapse down the stretch. Week 18 Dolphins win to seize a WC and deny NE a playoff spot would be hilarious.

I could see LAC collapsing simply because they aren't very good, but in the case of KC and NE those slow starts could yet come back to haunt both. Divisional games to end the season means that both could finish with poor Conference records, and in NE's case, get swept by a divisional opponent and lose a WC spot to them as a result. Unlikely, but you never know.

Edited December 22, 2021 by Boo Khaki

[lichtie23]

[Swarley]

Roughly 260 days until Season 22-23......

[Bully Wee Villa]

Literally the three cuntiest teams in the NFC are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd seeds. It seems written in the stars that massive Covidiot Trumpist twat Rodgers is going to win another Super Bowl because baddies always win sport.

[Antiochas III]

10 hours ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Literally the three cuntiest teams in the NFC are the 1st, 2nd and 3rd seeds. It seems written in the stars that massive Covidiot Trumpist twat Rodgers is going to win another Super Bowl because baddies always win sport.

Rather them than the Cowboys.  Sorry, not sorry... 

[Bully Wee Villa]

My order of preference:

1. Any of the 28 teams I don't really dislike.

2. Season cancelled

3. Bucs

4. Nuclear armageddon

5. Cowboys

6. Patriots

7. Three nuclear armageddons, just to be on the safe side

8. Packers.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Bully Wee Villa

[Boo Khaki]

Anyone but the Pats, Ravens, any team featuring Tom fucking Brady, or coached by Pete fucking Carroll. Apart from that I don't really GAF. Ok, well maybe the Chiefs now, but not because of any AFC West rivalry, simply because Tyreek Hill is a piece of filth who should be getting regularly violated in prison, not earning a fortune playing NFL football. Says a lot about the Chiefs ethos as an organisation that they didn't immediately just cut the fucker when it emerged what he did, especially after they cut Kareem Hunt. Bit of a smell of the St.Johnstone only sacking certain players for being caught doing ching depending on their market value about that.

Edited December 23, 2021 by Boo Khaki

[Boo Khaki]

That's the Cowboys clinched a playoff spot due to the 49'ers loss in Tennessee.

If the Colts lose in Arizona on Saturday, Tennessee will clinch the AFC South due to being 2 games up and having the head-to-head sweep on Indi.

[Fuctifano]

Not too much to play for going into week 18. Titans will be 1 seed if they beat the Texans and Packers have already clinched the NFC version. 

Colts are win and in vs the Jags, and Raiders vs Chargers is a playoff to get into the playoffs (if its somehow a tie then Chargers are in) 

Steelers and Ravens arithmetically alive but need wins and the Colts to lose. Think the Ravens need even more help than that. 

In the NFC 49ers are win and in vs the Rams, with the Saints needing a 49ers loss and win vs Falcons to nick the last playoff spot. 

A Jags loss will get them back to back number 1 picks. 

[Boo Khaki]

Quote

Steelers and Ravens arithmetically alive but need wins and the Colts to lose. Think the Ravens need even more help than that.

The Ravens need the Steelers to beat or Tie Cleveland tonight, to beat Pittsburgh themselves next week, hope Cinci beats Cleveland, the Pats beat or Tie Miami, the Jags beat Indi, and the Raiders beat LAC. They are not eliminated purely by a Browns victory over Pitt tonight, but would be if the Browns won tonight and also beat Cinci next week as Cleveland owns the H2H and would finish 2nd in the AFC North.

Steelers route is a bit more straightforward if not really any more realistic. They need to beat Cleveland tonight, beat Baltimore next week, hope the Colts lose to the Jags, and that the Raiders v Chargers game is not a Tie. 

Seems not out of the question for Pittsburgh, but I just can't see the Colts shitting the bed in Jacksonville.

Also, the Raiders would still qualify for the playoffs if they lost to LAC provided Jax beats Indi, and the Steelers lose or tie one of their remaining two games.

There is no scenario where LAC can lose in Las Vegas and still qualify, although if they do win they could still end up with the 5th, 6th, or 7th seed depending on results elsewhere. Likely though that if they do win in LV they are the 7th seed and end up in Arrowhead in the WC round.

Edited January 3, 2022 by Boo Khaki