forameus Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 minute ago, Donathan said: I’m sure if that happened, Norway would actually win the group and we’d be seeded ahead of the Netherlands Knew I'd fucked it up! But would Netherlands be behind us? They've still got to play Montenegro, so can pick up the three they need there. If Norway won both after that, they'd win the group, but Netherlands would finish on 16 ahead of us. It's likely pie in the sky stuff anyway. We just need to look at our own game. A point should be enough to see us through barring mental results. Or we could just go and try and win it and make sure. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 1 minute ago, forameus said: Am I being dense in thinking that there's a (very slim) chance we could beat Denmark and still not be seeded? Croatia and Poland both win their final game, and Norway win both of their final games with a GD of +4/5, we all finish on 17 points and we lose out on goal difference. Realistically though, I doubt Norway would do that, so a point should be enough to finish ahead of the Czechs and Norway. But given Denmark are still heavy favourites, I guess we're looking at Group G. Czech Republic/Wales are likely to take 2nd in Group E, but unless they boost their GD, it's unlikely they'll catch us. Turkey have Gibraltar and Montenegro, Norway have Latvia and Netherlands. If Turkey win both - which they probably will - they'll finish on 15 and ahead of us. Aye, we kind of need a point don't we? If we win v Denmark then we have 17 points, +6 GD. The runners-up of Groups B, D, G, H, J and probably E (on GD) would be unable to catch us. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 So percentage wise: Win - 100% chance of being seeded Draw - 70% Lose - 20% That sound about right? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
forameus Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Just now, jimbaxters said: Great result tonight but come on. To be fair, he's replying to my hypothetical. Which is all it is realistically. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbaxters Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, forameus said: To be fair, he's replying to my hypothetical. Which is all it is realistically. Aye, I wrote that based on seeing the latest post. Just read now that his first post on the previous page was quoting 1-0 Denmark. Soz Ginaro! 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Salt n Vinegar Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 Anybody else fed up with this "if x beat y, and a draw with b, as long as c don't beat d by more goals than the margin in the game between f and g, then we'll be ok as long as we don't lose by more than three" pish? Oh, for the days of "finish first or second in your group and you're through to the finals..." This is doing my head in! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 4 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said: Anybody else fed up with this "if x beat y, and a draw with b, as long as c don't beat d by more goals than the margin in the game between f and g, then we'll be ok as long as we don't lose by more than three" pish? Oh, for the days of "finish first or second in your group and you're through to the finals..." This is doing my head in! That's basically the rules now. Finish first, you qualify automatically. Finish second, you're in the playoffs. The only complication here is working out who is seeded. Obviously you have to compare teams' records against those from other groups to do so. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbaxters Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said: Anybody else fed up with this "if x beat y, and a draw with b, as long as c don't beat d by more goals than the margin in the game between f and g, then we'll be ok as long as we don't lose by more than three" pish? Oh, for the days of "finish first or second in your group and you're through to the finals..." This is doing my head in! Not so much the algorithms that are annoying it's li!e you say about the fact you finish 2nd in your group just to get into a semi final play off. Too many countries in Europe. Need a despot to start a war and hoover some of these wee nations up. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
John Lambies Doos Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 We will be seeded with a draw 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 3 minutes ago, jimbaxters said: Not so much the algorithms that are annoying it's li!e you say about the fact you finish 2nd in your group just to get into a semi final play off. Too many countries in Europe. Need a despot to start a war and hoover some of these wee nations up. Sixteen qualifying places for the 2026 World Cup so, assuming the initial format is more or less the same, you would only have to win one playoff game rather than two if you finished second. A bit easier! 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
jimbaxters Posted November 12, 2021 Share Posted November 12, 2021 (edited) 2 minutes ago, Small Bovine Maisonette said: Sixteen qualifying places for the 2026 World Cup so, assuming the initial format is more or less the same, you would only have to win one playoff game rather than two if you finished second. A bit easier! That'll be comforting when we watch a Swedish free kick settle in the back of the net in March. "Don't get upset son. It could be just one play off for the next one". Edited November 13, 2021 by jimbaxters 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Ginaro Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 (edited) 24 minutes ago, Small Bovine Maisonette said: So percentage wise: Win - 100% chance of being seeded Draw - 70% Lose - 20% That sound about right? Actually, looking again at a 1-0 defeat to Denmark and a 1-0 win for the Czechs v Estonia - we'd both be on 14 pts +4 GD, but the Czechs would win it with an extra goal scored. So unless we're scoring a goal then I think a defeat means it's highly likely we'd be ranked behind the Group E runners-up. 15 minutes ago, Salt n Vinegar said: Anybody else fed up with this "if x beat y, and a draw with b, as long as c don't beat d by more goals than the margin in the game between f and g, then we'll be ok as long as we don't lose by more than three" pish? Oh, for the days of "finish first or second in your group and you're through to the finals..." This is doing my head in! That was a while ago - the last time the top two teams in the groups qualified directly for the World Cup was in 1994, when UEFA qualification had 37 countries, 18 fewer than today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) Edited November 13, 2021 by Ginaro 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
paddymcp Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 43 minutes ago, Ginaro said: Actually, looking again at a 1-0 defeat to Denmark and a 1-0 win for the Czechs v Estonia - we'd both be on 14 pts +4 GD, but the Czechs would win it with an extra goal scored. So unless we're scoring a goal then I think a defeat means it's highly likely we'd be ranked behind the Group E runners-up. That was a while ago - the last time the top two teams in the groups qualified directly for the World Cup was in 1994, when UEFA qualification had 37 countries, 18 fewer than today. https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/1994_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_(UEFA) Estonia are pish. The Czechs will beat them by more than 1 - especially if they need it. Too many things have to go our way for a defeat to get us seeded IMO. Denmark are a decent side but they were only 2-1 against Fishermen in the 90th minute tonight so certainly not impossible to get a win/draw. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2426255 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 No point worrying over it too much really. We'll no doubt do all we can to try and beat Denmark on Monday and if we end up being unseeded then we've done our best as far as I'm concerned. Just have to hope all the provanistas out there wouldn't interpret it as "missing a massive opportunity" and recognise that we've done well throughout the qualifying group regardless of the outcome. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Lurkst Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 9 hours ago, Small Bovine Maisonette said: So percentage wise: Win - 100% chance of being seeded Draw - 70% Lose - 20% That sound about right? The odds I saw gave us a 4% chance of being seeded after losing to Denmark. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Bully Wee Villa Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Bugger. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Fuctifano Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Win and we're seeded, loss and we're clutching at thousands of straws. A draw would put us on net 15 points with +5 GD This would put us out of reach of group J (we already are even with a loss) and group D, and we'd need 2 of the other groups to help Group A: n/a, too far back with a draw Group B: Need Spain to beat Sweden by 3+ goals Group C - n/a, would take unrealistic GD swings Group E: Need Wales not to beat both Belarus and Belgium (one of those is more likely than the other) or get 4 points and +5 GD Group G: Most complex as still 2 games to play. Ideally on the last matchday Netherlands beat Norway and Turkey don't win by 4+ away to Montenegro Group H: Need Russia to beat Croatia in Croatia, as a draw would keep Croatia ahead of us on GD Group I: Need Poland to lose at home to Hungary, as a draw would keep Poland ahead of us on GD None of those seem really nailed on to me. Groups E and G probably the best bet. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Donathan Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 I think E and G are the two we’d be looking at to likely finish below us with a draw 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Paco Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 Anybody else fed up with this "if x beat y, and a draw with b, as long as c don't beat d by more goals than the margin in the game between f and g, then we'll be ok as long as we don't lose by more than three" pish? Oh, for the days of "finish first or second in your group and you're through to the finals..." This is doing my head in! I agree with that to an extent, but for ply-offs the old seeding format was world ranking which would definitely have had us unseeded. This gives us a bit of a shot - so no complaints from me. Our World Cup hopes really are all in the draw. It can be as harsh as Sweden and Croatia away back-to-back, or as kind as North Macedonia and Serbia at Hampden. There’s almost no chance in most scenarios, we’d maybe even be favourites in a couple. Still a tall order but for now it really is important for us to try and get that seeding on Monday night. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
2426255 Posted November 13, 2021 Share Posted November 13, 2021 (edited) I'd say unseeded playoff team is about where we're at as a team. That's about our level. Games tonight to keep an eye on: Group D - France v Kazakhstan Group D - Bosnia v Finland Group E - Wales v Belarus Group G - Norway v Latvia Group G - Montenegro v Netherlands Edited November 13, 2021 by 2426255 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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