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WORLD CUP PLAY-OFFS: the Scottish balls-up scenario. It couldn't happen, could it?!


nate

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11 minutes ago, ropy said:

Is the draw for the second game at the same time as the first?  I.e. A or B will play C or D?

Aye, looks like the whole thing's drawn at once, according to Wiki.

6 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

Tough teams, but not an impossible task.

Yep, these are the sort of sides you'll need to deprive of a place if you want to qualify. Seems entire fair.

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4 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Sorry if I'm being a moron by missing this, but when do the play-off ties take place?  I keep reading about when the draw is, but not when the games are.

There's obviously a pretty big window, given that the finals are over a year away.

24th/ 29th March

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30 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Sorry if I'm being a moron by missing this, but when do the play-off ties take place?  I keep reading about when the draw is, but not when the games are.

Thu & Fri in March for SFs and then Mon & Tue for Finals.

 

30 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

There's obviously a pretty big window, given that the finals are over a year away.

If it's not getting ahead of ourselves... it's worth noting there will be few or no warm-up games, even though WC isn't until December next year.

Next edition of Nations League needs squeezed-in which means a quadrupleheader in June then a doubleheader in late September. Players are only released 6 days before WC begins in November, and there are 4 group games per day (not usual 3) so everybody will be underway within 6-9 days of players arriving.

EDIT: Due to last 18 months delays an extra window has been added in late January but UEFA isn't using it. Some leagues are stopping as non-Europeans will be away.

Boyle may miss Hibs games v Motherwell and Livingston; Rogic, Carter-Vickers and Furuhashi miss Celtic v Hearts and Dundee Utd; Wotherspoon miss St Johnstone v Dundee and Aberdeen; Paton miss Ross County v Dundee Utd and Rangers; Arfield, Roofe and Morelos miss Rangers v Livingston and Ross County.

Edited by HibeeJibee
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2 hours ago, Donathan said:

What results should we be looking at for seeding purposes?

If we lose 1-0 to Denmark then we need:

Czech Republic to win by at most 1 goal v Estonia,

Norway to lose to the Netherlands and not increase their GD by 2,

Turkey not to beat both Gibraltar and Montenegro (as they would finish ahead of Norway).

If we draw with Denmark then I think we are seeded.

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2 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

Ukraine have drawn 6 of their 7 games. How are they at penalties?

That whole group's been a bit weird. France have struggled their way through most of their games, and it's about as straightforward a group as they could've asked for.

Ukraine surely won't be finishing second there. They need a win away to Bosnia or it'll be likely that they'll lose out to their hosts or Finland. Still not impossible that they could qualify for the World Cup with a single win, which would surely be some kind of record since the days when you could qualify by invitation.

If they do make it, I hope they win the whole thing with three draws and four penalty shoot-outs, just to see everybody's head explode.

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12 minutes ago, Ginaro said:

If we lose 1-0 to Denmark then we need:

Czech Republic to win by at most 1 goal v Estonia,

Norway to lose to the Netherlands and not increase their GD by 2,

Turkey not to beat both Gibraltar and Montenegro (as they would finish ahead of Norway).

If we draw with Denmark then I think we are seeded.

Not looking good unless we can shitfest a point, then. 

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So at present:

  • Group A - Portugal vs Serbia on Sunday to decide who wins the group.
  • Group B - Between Spain and Sweden, they play on Sunday. You'd expect Spain but the Swedes held them in the Euro's.
  • Group C - Between Italy and Switzerland, Italy have the easier game away to Northern Ireland.
  • Group D - Big upset if France don't win. Ukraine in second spot, Finland a point behind and could overtake with a game in hand but they still have to play France.
  • Group E - Belgium shoe in, Wales have benefit of a game in hand but still to play homes ties against Belarus and Belgium, Czech's have Estonia +2 GD
  • Group F - Denmark and Us
  • Group G - Netherlands play Norway in Amsterdam to pretty much decide the group, barring an upset, Norway will finish 2nd
  • Group H - Russia face Croatia in Zagreb to decide the group, Russia can settle for a draw
  • Group I - England will win the group with a away tie in San Marino, Poland are second.
  • Group J - Germany won the group, North Macedonia or Romania could come second, North Macedonia are in driving seat

Definite Qualifiers

  • Germany
  • England
  • Denmark
  • Belgium
  • France

Likely Qualifiers

  • Netherlands
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Portugal
  • Croatia
Edited by Kapowzer
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2 minutes ago, Kapowzer said:

So Wikipedia not been updated yet but at present:

  • Group A - Portugal vs Serbia on Sunday to decide who wins the group, loser can't outscore out points tally
  • Group B - Between Spain and Sweden, they play on Sunday. You'd expect Spain but the Swedes held them in the Euro's, whoever comes second won't get above our points tally.
  • Group C - Between Italy and Switzerland, Italy have the easier game away to Northern Ireland. Again, second in the group can't finish above us.
  • Group D - Big upset if France don't win. Ukraine in second spot, Finland a point behind and could overtake with a game in hand but they still have to play France. Again nobody can finish above us.
  • Group E - Belgium shoe in, Wales have benefit of a game in hand but still to play homes ties against Belarus and Belgium, Czech's have Estonia +2 GD, nobody can finish above us.
  • Group F - Denmark and Us
  • Group G - Netherlands play Norway in Amsterdam to pretty much decide the group, barring an upset, Norway will finish 2nd with 20 points and superior goal difference so will be seeded above us.
  • Group H - Russia face Croatia in Zagreb to decide the group, Russia can settle for a draw, both teams will finish above us regardless of score.
  • Group I - England will win the group with a away tie in San Marino, Poland will finish above us.
  • Group J - Germany won the group, North Macedonia or Romania could come second, North Macedonia are in driving seat but can't finish above us.

Definite Qualifiers

  • Germany
  • England
  • Denmark
  • Belgium
  • France

Likely Qualifiers

  • Netherlands
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Portugal
  • Croatia

Playoff's - Probable final tally

Seeded

  • Poland - 23
  • Russia - 22
  • Norway - 20 (superior GD)
  • Scotland - 20
  • Switzerland - 18
  • North Macedonia - 18

Unseeded

  • Serbia - 17
  • Sweden - 15
  • Czech Republic - 14 (just)
  • Ukraine - 12

Nations League

  • Wales
  • Austria

Based on that, I don't think Serbia gives us any fear, Sweden are still a force who progress deep into tournaments, Czech's always been tight of late, Ukraine are going through a transition, Wales no fear for me anyway and Austria are now in the Serbia mould after what happened in Vienna.

Thing is, everyone in the bottom half of the draw will want us or North Macedonia.

You have forgotten to exclude the points against 6th placed teams. Serbia/Portugal loser WILL be seeded, for example. 

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1 minute ago, Kapowzer said:

So Wikipedia not been updated yet but at present:

  • Group A - Portugal vs Serbia on Sunday to decide who wins the group, loser can't outscore out points tally
  • Group B - Between Spain and Sweden, they play on Sunday. You'd expect Spain but the Swedes held them in the Euro's, whoever comes second won't get above our points tally.
  • Group C - Between Italy and Switzerland, Italy have the easier game away to Northern Ireland. Again, second in the group can't finish above us.
  • Group D - Big upset if France don't win. Ukraine in second spot, Finland a point behind and could overtake with a game in hand but they still have to play France. Again nobody can finish above us.
  • Group E - Belgium shoe in, Wales have benefit of a game in hand but still to play homes ties against Belarus and Belgium, Czech's have Estonia +2 GD, nobody can finish above us.
  • Group F - Denmark and Us
  • Group G - Netherlands play Norway in Amsterdam to pretty much decide the group, barring an upset, Norway will finish 2nd with 20 points and superior goal difference so will be seeded above us.
  • Group H - Russia face Croatia in Zagreb to decide the group, Russia can settle for a draw, both teams will finish above us regardless of score.
  • Group I - England will win the group with a away tie in San Marino, Poland will finish above us.
  • Group J - Germany won the group, North Macedonia or Romania could come second, North Macedonia are in driving seat but can't finish above us.

Definite Qualifiers

  • Germany
  • England
  • Denmark
  • Belgium
  • France

Likely Qualifiers

  • Netherlands
  • Italy
  • Spain
  • Portugal
  • Croatia

Playoff's - Probable final tally

Seeded

  • Poland - 23
  • Russia - 22
  • Norway - 20 (superior GD)
  • Scotland - 20
  • Switzerland - 18
  • North Macedonia - 18

Unseeded

  • Serbia - 17
  • Sweden - 15
  • Czech Republic - 14 (just)
  • Ukraine - 12

Nations League

  • Wales
  • Austria

Based on that, I don't think Serbia gives us any fear, Sweden are still a force who progress deep into tournaments, Czech's always been tight of late, Ukraine are going through a transition, Wales no fear for me anyway and Austria are now in the Serbia mould after what happened in Vienna.

Thing is, everyone in the bottom half of the draw will want us or North Macedonia.

Unless I'm being dense, this seems almost entirely wrong.  Group A and group B are already above our points total, we would only overtake them if we beat Denmark.  To get above Serbia, we'd probably need heavy defeat for them and big win for us.  Are you taking off the points against bottom sides for the 6 team groups?  Wikipedia seems up to date to me.

image.png.6f1b5c693d2faef996a294a2c7de08cb.png

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9 minutes ago, Kapowzer said:

Yeah edited it after I noticed that, uneven groups, etc.

 

You're hoping the Dane's go experimental / blood the young guys (which is still a daunting prospect). Are all our yellow cards wiped at the end of the group stages?

Edited by Kapowzer
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Am I being dense in thinking that there's a (very slim) chance we could beat Denmark and still not be seeded?  Croatia and Poland both win their final game, and Norway win both of their final games with a GD of +4/5, we all finish on 17 points and we lose out on goal difference.  Realistically though, I doubt Norway would do that, so a point should be enough to finish ahead of the Czechs and Norway. 

But given Denmark are still heavy favourites, I guess we're looking at Group G.  Czech Republic/Wales are likely to take 2nd in Group E, but unless they boost their GD, it's unlikely they'll catch us.  Turkey have Gibraltar and Montenegro, Norway have Latvia and Netherlands.  If Turkey win both - which they probably will - they'll finish on 15 and ahead of us.  

Aye, we kind of need a point don't we?

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Just now, forameus said:

Am I being dense in thinking that there's a (very slim) chance we could beat Denmark and still not be seeded?  Croatia and Poland both win their final game, and Norway win both of their final games with a GD of +4/5, we all finish on 17 points and we lose out on goal difference.  Realistically though, I doubt Norway would do that, so a point should be enough to finish ahead of the Czechs and Norway. 

But given Denmark are still heavy favourites, I guess we're looking at Group G.  Czech Republic/Wales are likely to take 2nd in Group E, but unless they boost their GD, it's unlikely they'll catch us.  Turkey have Gibraltar and Montenegro, Norway have Latvia and Netherlands.  If Turkey win both - which they probably will - they'll finish on 15 and ahead of us.  

Aye, we kind of need a point don't we?

I’m sure if that happened, Norway would actually win the group and we’d be seeded ahead of the Netherlands 

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