WORLD CUP PLAY-OFFS: the Scottish balls-up scenario. It couldn't happen, could it?!

[craigkillie]

I doubt Russia have ever been kept apart from Afghanistan given that they'd never have had the chance to play them anyway.

[Donathan]

11 hours ago, BFTD said:

Virtually the entirely of the Middle East would refuse to play them, and would genuinely rather withdraw from the tournament than even acknowledge them as a country. I guess you could say, "f**k the Middle East, then", but I'm not convinced that losing an entire region from the tournament is in anyone's best interests.

It's also a more complicated situation than with, say, apartheid-era South Africa, as Israel could agree to an independent Palestinian state and stop committing war crimes tomorrow, and it would make no difference to the leadership of some of their neighbours.

Thankfully keeping them in UEFA seems to work for all concerned, and makes a lot more sense than the days of shuttling them off to South America or Oceania for qualifiers.

Out of interest what would happen if Israel actually qualified? It would be difficult enough for FIFA if they qualified for a tournament that had the likes of Iran and Saudi Arabia in it for starters, but even more so if they’d qualified for the forthcoming World Cup given that it is being held in the Middle East.

 

My guess is that in normal circumstances they’d bury their head in the sand and keep them apart in the groups and cross their fingers that they don’t meet in the knockouts, but if it was Qatar then there would be a genuine risk that the players would be prevented from entering the country or at risk of serious harm whilst there. We can’t understate how much Jews are hated in that part of the world unfortunately.

 

On a purely geographic note, Israel being in UEFA makes more sense than Kazakhstan. I understand Azerbaijan given that they are bordering countries like Georgia and Armenia which are genuinely in Europe, but if Kazakhstan are consider European then why not Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan too? 

[craigkillie]

Kazakhstan is a transcontinental country with some of its territory lying in Europe. Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan are not.

[Bully Wee Villa]

32 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Out of interest what would happen if Israel actually qualified? It would be difficult enough for FIFA if they qualified for a tournament that had the likes of Iran and Saudi Arabia in it for starters, but even more so if they’d qualified for the forthcoming World Cup given that it is being held in the Middle East.

 

My guess is that in normal circumstances they’d bury their head in the sand and keep them apart in the groups and cross their fingers that they don’t meet in the knockouts, but if it was Qatar then there would be a genuine risk that the players would be prevented from entering the country or at risk of serious harm whilst there. We can’t understate how much Jews are hated in that part of the world unfortunately.

 

On a purely geographic note, Israel being in UEFA makes more sense than Kazakhstan. I understand Azerbaijan given that they are bordering countries like Georgia and Armenia which are genuinely in Europe, but if Kazakhstan are consider European then why not Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan too? 

A small section of Kazakhstan is in Europe. None of Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan is.

Qatar had to guarantee that they would let any qualifier into their country as one of the pre-requisites of hosting the competition. Libya were banned from bidding to co-host the 2010 World Cup over their failure to give the same assurance because of the possibility of Israel qualifying.

Of the teams that could realistically qualify, I think Saudi Arabia, Iran and Iraq would definitely refuse to play Israel. Algeria and Mali might do so. I would suggest all those teams would be put in one half of the draw and Israel in the other, that way they couldn't meet until the semis, which would be massively unlikely.

The possibility of Russia meeting Ukraine in Euros is a greater potential problem, given that they could both realistically go on a run in the tournament having made the latter stages of competitions before. The format which allows three teams to progress from some groups means you can't arrange the draw so that teams are kept apart beyond the last sixteen.

Edited November 19, 2021 by Small Bovine Maisonette

[Marten]

34 minutes ago, Donathan said:

On a purely geographic note, Israel being in UEFA makes more sense than Kazakhstan. I understand Azerbaijan given that they are bordering countries like Georgia and Armenia which are genuinely in Europe, but if Kazakhstan are consider European then why not Turkmenistan and Uzbekistan too? 

Kazakhstan is partly in Europe, only a tiny part, but they have some territory in Europe so have the right to be in UEFA. Same goes for Georgia and Azerbaijan. In UEFA, Israel, Armenia and Cyprus are all geographically fully in Asia. The latter being in the Asian part of the Mediterranean. Both Armenia and Cyprus are culturally seen as European, so that's why they generally get included in Europe (not just for UEFA).

[Bully Wee Villa]

Given that Azerbaijan is east of Armenia, how can it be partly in Europe when Armenia isn't?

[Donathan]

Another example of this is Australia moving from the OFC to the AFC, which has led to them becoming regular qualifiers. I’m slightly surprised the two qualifying streams haven’t been merged given that OFC doesn’t even have an automatic spot in the World Cup. You could at least do a preliminary tournament for the Oceanian teams and give two winners (likely New Zealand and one of Solomon Islands or Tahiti) a berth in the final round of Asian qualifiers. 
 

 

Suriname, French Guiana and Guyana are geographically South American (East of Venezuela and North of Brazil) yet for some reason have always played in CONCACAF rather than CONMEBOL. Not sure why, but if they were in CONMEBOL then the qualifying format would need a revamp. 

[DiegoDiego]

Given that Azerbaijan is east of Armenia, how can it be partly in Europe when Armenia isn't?

It has some land in Europe north of the Caucuses, Armenia doesn't.

[Bully Wee Villa]

CONCACAF isn't explicitly the "North American" section, it is the Confederation of North, Central America and Caribbean Association Football. Guyana and Suriname are both Caribbean, that's why they're in. Culturally, they have more in common with the Caribbean than South America (eg Guyana hosts West Indies cricket matches).

[Marten]

The most common definitions of the borders of Europe are the Ural mountain range (dividing European and Asian Russia), the Ural river (dividing European and Asian Kazakhstan, with the former only being some 3% of the country's landmass), the Caucasus mountain range (giving both Georgia and Azerbaijan a tiny bit of territory in Europe) and the Bosporus strait. Boundaries in the Caspian Sea, Black Sea and Mediterranean are usually drawn so that any parts of those seas belong to the continent they're the closest to. With the Mediterranean that means that strictly speaking Cyprus is Asian, as are some Greek islands, while some Italian islands are in fact African.

[DiegoDiego]

With the Mediterranean that means that strictly speaking Cyprus is Asian, as are some Greek islands, while some Italian islands are in fact African.

While living in north Italy I asked an acquaintance if they'd ever been to Africa. After a second or two of thinking he said "Only Sicily".

[forameus]

On the teams being kept apart, I don't have much of a problem with it when it comes to the initial qualifying groups, as I don't think it really gives anyone an advantage or disadvantage and doesn't lead to any potentially hostile situations.  But when it comes to cases like this, where numbers of teams involved are smaller, you can argue it does bring an advantage to have those two split up.  Surely there's a solution there to keep an open draw for a one-off match?  

Only negative I'd see is that if you're going down the route of neutral grounds, it erases the advantage that Russia have supposedly earned in getting a home draw, which puts them at a disadvantage.  Suspect it's just a case of "let's split them up and we don't need to worry".  

[craigkillie]

They've put themselves at that disadvantage.

[forameus]

Fair enough point, was just suggesting a reason why they might not want to do it.  Personally I'd tell them to get on with it, and a neutral venue with no fans if they don't like it.  

[Bully Wee Villa]

I agree with the principal, and I think Spain are massive fannies for refusing to play Gibraltar and India should be forced to play Pakistan in test matches or be banned from international cricket.

However, in the case of Ukraine v Russia and even more so Armenia v Azerbaijan there is the chance that forcing them to play each other could result in an escalation of violence, and people kicking a ball around is less important than people not dying.

[PB1994]

A Russia v Ukraine playoff game at the Donbass Arena would be a right good watch, so I’m all for it.

[Donathan]

16 minutes ago, Small Bovine Maisonette said:

I agree with the principal, and I think Spain are massive fannies for refusing to play Gibraltar and India should be forced to play Pakistan in test matches or be banned from international cricket.

However, in the case of Ukraine v Russia and even more so Armenia v Azerbaijan there is the chance that forcing them to play each other could result in an escalation of violence, and people kicking a ball around is less important than people not dying.

I don’t really think you can blame the fact that a football match is taking place for actual violence that escalates as a result. That is squarely on whoever fires the guns, not on UEFA for allowing Armenia and Azerbaijan to be drawn together.

 

Incidentally, I vaguely remember that UEFA used to only use 7 groups in Euros qualifying (top 2 qualified from each, joining 2 Co hosts in the finals) and this each group was larger with most having 7 teams and some having 8. This was the case for euro 2008 when we were in a 7 team group with France, Italy, Ukraine, Georgia, Lithuania and the Faroe Islands. IIRC, the solitary 8 team group contained both Azerbaijan and Armenia and there was no war as a result. 

[Marten]

2 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I don’t really think you can blame the fact that a football match is taking place for actual violence that escalates as a result. That is squarely on whoever fires the guns, not on UEFA for allowing Armenia and Azerbaijan to be drawn together.

 

Incidentally, I vaguely remember that UEFA used to only use 7 groups in Euros qualifying (top 2 qualified from each, joining 2 Co hosts in the finals) and this each group was larger with most having 7 teams and some having 8. This was the case for euro 2008 when we were in a 7 team group with France, Italy, Ukraine, Georgia, Lithuania and the Faroe Islands. IIRC, the solitary 8 team group contained both Azerbaijan and Armenia and there was no war as a result. 

The games between Azerbaijan and Armenia were never played as no solution could be found to let them go ahead safely. And considering both were at war earlier this year and there are tensions again at the moment, that would only be worse now...

[Bully Wee Villa]

42 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I don’t really think you can blame the fact that a football match is taking place for actual violence that escalates as a result.

If both teams say "don't draw us together we can't guarantee there won't be violence" then, of course, the football authorities bear some responsibility if they draw them together anyway and people die. And why would you take a chance? Football isn't that important 

[Barney Rubble]

Don't forget the case of Henrikh Mkhitaryan (Armenian) - from Wikipedia:

Mkhitaryan was at the centre of a controversy ahead of the 2019 UEFA Europa League Final in Baku, Azerbaijan between Arsenal and Chelsea; Armenia and Azerbaijan do not have international relations and people of Armenian descent are forbidden entry to Azerbaijan without prior formal authorisation. He was promised guarantees of security, but did not travel over safety fears. Mkhitaryan and Arsenal ultimately decided that he would not travel with the squad to the final match, as he previously opted twice not to travel to Azerbaijan, the first was in 2015 to play for Borussia Dortmund against Gabala, and the second was in 2018 for Arsenal against Qarabağ.