WORLD CUP PLAY-OFFS: the Scottish balls-up scenario. It couldn't happen, could it?!

[Donathan]

6 minutes ago, PB1994 said:

They would need to win away to the Netherlands and hope Turkey drop points to Montenegro I believe.

No that’s not right. In that scenario Norway would win the group.

 

I think the scenario that Norway come second (bet 15) is:

 

1) Norway beat Netherlands

2) Turkey beat Montenegro by an equivalent score 

 

 

I think that would only become an issue for us on net 15 if Norway beat Holland by a barrel load 

[velo army]

Just now, velo army said:

Not sure why we'd worry about Poland either. Lewandowski is obviously incredible, but the rest of the team are largely average. The only teams I would worry about are Wales and perhaps Russia. Possibly Portugal. 

Arse, meant to press "edit".

Q.T.A Turkey are utter dogshit too.

 

[PB1994]

1 minute ago, Donathan said:

No that’s not right. In that scenario Norway would win the group.

 

I think the scenario that Norway come second (bet 15) is:

 

1) Norway beat Netherlands

2) Turkey beat Montenegro by an equivalent score 

 

 

I think that would only become an issue for us on net 15 if Norway beat Holland by a barrel load 

Oh so they would. I had just assumed Netherlands had won the group already.

[Cardle is Magic]

10 minutes ago, Donathan said:

Isn’t there a scenario where Norway come second and are on net 15 points?

If they beat Netherlands and Turkey beat Montenegro I think? 

[immcinto]

5 minutes ago, PB1994 said:

They would need to win away to the Netherlands and hope Turkey drop points to Montenegro I believe.

Close. I missed the Norway scenario. If Norway and Turkey both win then one of those teams is on 15 points. 

Betfair:
Turkey Win = 1.7

Norway win = 8.2

1.7x8.2=~14(7%).

 

So Scotland only have 45% chance of seed if they draw.

[paranoid android]

Not sure if this will make such sense to anyone but me, but it feels a wee bit scunnering that we've done so well, and might still not actually qualify. 

Edited November 15, 2021 by paranoid android

[Donathan]

1 minute ago, immcinto said:

Close. I missed the Norway scenario. If Norway and Turkey both win then one of those teams is on 15 points. 

Betfair:
Turkey Win = 1.7

Norway win = 8.2

1.7x8.2=~14(7%).

 

So Scotland only have 45% chance of seed if they draw.

We have the GD lead over these teams, though. For Norway to finish above us in the second place table, BOTH Norway and Turkey would need to win by 4.

 

I think we can eliminate the following scenarios:

 

1. Switzerland finishing below us on 15 (They're 1/12 to win outright. No chance of Bulgaria beating them by 5 IMO.

2. Norway finishing above us on 15 (They'd need to beat the Dutch by 4 to get above us on GD, but then they'd win the group anyway unless Turkey also win by 4)

 

So basically we need a draw + 2-from-3 of:

 

1. Belgium win (42%)

2. Hungary win (15%)

3. Turkey don't by 4+ (95%)

 

I make it about 54% that at least 2 of them will happen

 

[Donathan]

To be seeded with a DEFEAT we'd need:

 

1) Wales lose to Belgium by a higher margin (Belgium -1 is 30%)

2) Czech Republic fail to beat Estonia (15.5%)

3) Turkey fail to beat Montenegro (42.3%)

4) Norway fail to beat Netherlands (86.8%)

5) Finland fail to beat France (82.7%)

 

That combination is 1.4%

 

So I make it:

 

WIN - 100%

DRAW - 54%

LOSE BY ONE GOAL - 1.4%

[2426255]

So aim for a win and if we get a draw we might get lucky.

[Scary Bear]

10 minutes ago, paranoid android said:

Not sure if this will make such sense to anyone but me, but it feels a wee but scunnering that we've done so well, and might still not actually qualify. 

If you look at is dispassionately, we’ve only had one result you wouldn’t expect; the away win in Vienna. 

Still all to do if we want to get to the World Cup.

 

[George Parr]

3 hours ago, Satoshi said:

Agreed McGinn is probably the most worrying (followed by Robertson and Gilmour) the rest we can do fairly easily without.

We just have no other players that are similar to McGinn. I assume the suspensions would also apply in a semi final so Clarke is right we just need to risk it for both of the next two games.

This is true. No person can match what John McGinn achieves with his arse.

[Skyline Drifter]

26 minutes ago, paranoid android said:

Not sure if this will make such sense to anyone but me, but it feels a wee bit scunnering that we've done so well, and might still not actually qualify. 

 

12 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

If you look at is dispassionately, we’ve only had one result you wouldn’t expect; the away win in Vienna. 

Still all to do if we want to get to the World Cup.

 

Yeah, we 'feel' like we've done well, partly because under pressure to produce a series of must win results after a slightly ropy start, we've done exactly that. I'm not sure we really have done that well though. This is a good side, the best in at least two decades, but it's not really over-achieved or anything. The side that beat France home and away and finished ahead of Ukraine over-achieved but had a horrendous group and were hard done to.

For all the optimism it's not really a massively strong group. I could have lived without seeing Israel again and they were a tough 4th seed draw but at the time it was drawn both Denmark and Austria looked a result of a draw. And Moldova and the Faroes shouldn't really be concerning anybody who thinks they might threaten to qualify. I fancied us for 2nd when the draw was made and that's all we've done. We're more distant from Denmark than I thought because I expected them to slip somewhere and they haven't.

Denmark to be fair have much improved as a side since the draw was made and maybe in retrospect getting someone like Portugal or the Dutch would have been a better draw but the likelihood was we were always playing for 2nd. A weak Austrian 2nd seed was always a good target for that. The win in Vienna was a terrific result but only necessitated by an inability to beat either Austria at home or Israel away. Albeit we got there in the end and games last 90 (plus) minutes, there'd be a whole different attitude if it weren't for late goals against Israel and the Faroes (and VAR against Israel and in Vienna).

Qualifying for World Cups is difficult now as European places are squeezed by the need to get more African / Asian representation. 2nd in a group is about as good as we can expect and then it's a question of how they organise playoffs and how lucky you get with the draw and on the day. The days when you got there just by finishing 2nd to an Italy are gone.

If we beat Denmark tonight then I think we can legitimately say we've done well in the group, even if by small margins to an extent, and been unlucky not to get through if we ultimately don't. Anything less and we're not really doing anything that many other 2nd place sides have done. The fact we're touch and go for a seeding in the playoffs suggests we've not done anything exceptional. The Swiss are likely to lose out to the European champions on goal difference over 8 games. The Russians lost out to a late own goal to Croatia, Poland's record is as good as ours and they would still be in the hunt to win the group but for a late England winner when they met. They'll all have to take their chances in the playoffs too. Norway may not even get that after slipping up against Latvia the other night. Unless they win in the Netherlands they are finishing 3rd.

[TheScarf]

The last 2 pages of this thread - 

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

I don't fancy Belgium to beat Wales at all.  They seem to just have something over them, plus Belgium are not going to be at full strength.  Delighted if I'm wrong but can easily see Wales getting at least a point

[paranoid android]

1 hour ago, Scary Bear said:

If you look at is dispassionately, we’ve only had one result you wouldn’t expect; the away win in Vienna. 

Still all to do if we want to get to the World Cup.

 

My perspective has now changed to the extent that any win has to be considered a good result these days - even wins against teams/nations we used to consider minnows. 

Bigger tests ahead, starting tonight against Denmark, but we do genuinely seem to have a handful of good players.

It's been a good run - these are the good times, my friend - it's not that long since we were playing teams of the caliber of Israel and Moldova and losing or drawing. 

I'm hopeful that we don't falter at the final stages, but we'll see. 

[Virtual Insanity]

2 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

 

 

If we beat Denmark tonight then I think we can legitimately say we've done well in the group, even if by small margins to an extent, and been unlucky not to get through if we ultimately don't. 

Agree with everything you said, although think we can say we've done well regardless of tonight's result but it's hardly a huge over achievement, seeded 3rd and finished 2nd ahead of a pretty weak 2nd seed. 

[KingRocketman II]

I believe I read, and sorry if someone has already highlighted this, that a simple assessment of outcomes tonight for the hard of thinking like me is as follows:

Scotland win = seeded. 

Scotland draw = seeded unless Wales match or better our result in their game against Belgium. 

Scotland defeat = on to plums

[2426255]

1 hour ago, paranoid android said:

My perspective has now changed to the extent that any win has to be considered a good result these days - even wins against teams/nations we used to consider minnows. 

Might be a perspective worth keeping mate.

[VictorOnopko]

14 minutes ago, KingRocketman II said:

I believe I read, and sorry if someone has already highlighted this, that a simple assessment of outcomes tonight for the hard of thinking like me is as follows:

Scotland win = seeded. 

Scotland draw = seeded unless Wales match or better our result in their game against Belgium. 

Scotland defeat = on to plums

No, I think if we draw it's still more complicated than that - we'd also need three other results going our way (Wales losing being just one of those possibles out of five matches).  Donathan explains it on p.11...

[M0rtonfc]

4 hours ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Well McTominay isn't playing anyway so that's irrelevant. Couldn't really care less if Nisbet is suspended either as he's very unlikely to start either tonight or in the playoffs.

O'Donnell is probably 2nd choice to Paterson these days anyway.

I'd rather not lose any of the others but Hendry would just be replaced by McTominay anyway and Adams isn't that vital. As good as they are, Robertson and Gilmour aren't completely irreplaceable as long as Jack is fit and presumably Tierney would move out left and Hanley / Cooper / McKenna slot into centre back.

McGinn's the most irreplaceable.

Spot on!