Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 (edited) I enjoy having a bet so that I can take an interest in matches that don't involve one of my teams, but I'm not keen on the industry and the mantra "the house always wins" has certainly proven true, and costly, for me. I have therefore come up with the idea of placing a £1 bet on an odds-on game and rolling the money forward. I calculated with Excel that if I got ten bets in a row at 1/2 odds my winnings would be ~£80, twenty bets would give ~£3000 and thirty bets would give £190,000. My first three bets were all successful. I think I had Dover Athletic to lose twice and a Champions League game, although I can't actually remember. That took my accumulated winnings to £3.58. For my fourth bet yesterday I had a choice of Fulham (v Peterborough), Kelty (v Cowdenbeath), Sunderland (v Mansfield) and Queens Park (v East Fife). However, each game had something that made me wary, so I decided not to place a bet. Only the first two would have come in and only by late goals. That left me feeling that my winnings weren't growing quick enough (mistake) so I looked at the fixtures for today. I have just lost my accumulated winnings. I went for Oxford United (6th in League One and in great form) v Bristol Rovers (16th in League Two, in poor form, with four first choice attackers injured). Oxford seemed a pretty safe bet. The only niggling point in my mind related to the managers. Karl Robinson of Oxford and Joey Barton of Rovers are good friends, talk regularly, and from seven meetings between them Barton had a record of 6w 1d. But I put that to the side, since those victories all came with teams competing in the same division, no bet is ever perfect, and I wanted to have a go. The teams have just drawn 2-2. I shall therefore start again. Knowing my luck, I won't get past the first bet this time. But I shall try to follow the same rules as before, complemented with a couple new ones from today: 1) only bet on leagues I know or can research (i.e. English or Scottish) 2) only bet after looking at the relevant league tables and each club's list of results 3) only bet when I have been able to see a match preview and information about injuries and suspensions 4) if I bet at 1/2 odds and the odds improve before kick-off, take a cash out and place the bet using the improved odds 5) if I bet at odds better than 1/2 and have a cash out option which would effectively pay 1/2, I should take it Plus 6) don't bet just because I want my winnings to grow more quickly 7) [not sure yet what to take from the Robinson/Barton thing but there's definitely something to be learned there] Edited November 7, 2021 by Priti priti priti Patel 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 (edited) Breaking rules 1 and 3 above but that's fine as I'm starting again and not carrying anything forward. Just popped a pound on Sporting (2nd, 8-2-0) to beat Pacos Ferreira (10th, 2-5-3) in their game tonight, 7 pm k.o. UK time. The risk here is Pacos' penchant for draws, but Sporting have been dominant even in games against the other top sides in the league, so they should have too much for Pacos. Of course, additional risk because I didn't take time to check the team news. Edited November 7, 2021 by Priti priti priti Patel 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 I did this for a while, but started with £5 and £10 and committed to banking winnings if I got past a certain amount. I'll tag along and do this with you if you fancy some friendly rivalry ? I'll take Sporting too, but then choose my own. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 7, 2021 Author Share Posted November 7, 2021 2 hours ago, Tommy Carcetti said: I did this for a while, but started with £5 and £10 and committed to banking winnings if I got past a certain amount. I'll tag along and do this with you if you fancy some friendly rivalry ? I'll take Sporting too, but then choose my own. Sure - feel free to jump in! I considered having a rule about banking winnings. If I don't bank then I am destined to lose it all at some point, but I wasn't sure when I should bank and how much. Using my excel, I looked at taking half every ten successful bets (which is ambitious given I've not got past three!), but even just taking half seems to massively hamstring my overall winnings. What was your approach? 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 22 minutes ago, Priti priti priti Patel said: Sure - feel free to jump in! I considered having a rule about banking winnings. If I don't bank then I am destined to lose it all at some point, but I wasn't sure when I should bank and how much. Using my excel, I looked at taking half every ten successful bets (which is ambitious given I've not got past three!), but even just taking half seems to massively hamstring my overall winnings. What was your approach? I would usually go for 1/3 shots. In terms of banking, I would take my original stake back for another go everytime I got to 4 or 5 wins. Another longer, more painstaking way of doing this is betting over 0.5 goals in a game. Odds are very short, but less than 10% of games finish 0-0. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 7, 2021 Share Posted November 7, 2021 Anyway, Sporting won!!!! Off to a flyer. I'm sticking my £1.58 winnings on River Plate to beat Patronato tonight, before trying to stick to UK stuff, or European at a push. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 Good stuff! I'm not that keen on overseas games yet so I think you'll go flying ahead of me. Looked at the domestic and international fixtures for the coming week and nothing immediately jumped out 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Running total £1.00 Sporting @1.58 = £1.58 River @1.36 = £2.12 3 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 (edited) 1 hour ago, Tommy Carcetti said: Running total £1.00 Sporting @1.58 = £1.58 River @1.36 = £2.12 Nice one. Do you know the Argentine league or did you just research it? Have decided to break rules 1 and 3 again and go for Hapoel Kfar Saba (top of the Israeli second tier, 5-4-1) at 4/6 to beat Hapoel Ra'anana (bottom of the same league, 1-2-7) this afternoon. Edited November 8, 2021 by Priti priti priti Patel 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 17 minutes ago, Priti priti priti Patel said: Nice one. Do you know the Argentine league or did you just research it? Have decided to break rules 1 and 3 again and go for Hapoel Kfar Saba (top of the Israeli second tier, 5-4-1) at 4/6 to beat Hapoel Ra'anana (bottom of the same league, 1-2-7) this afternoon. I had a wee look. River are top of the table, scored the most and conceded the least, and their opponents were 4th bottom of a 26 team league with only 4 wins all season and the 3rd worst defence. Finished 5-0. I'm also using bet365 for this because of their early payout in the bigger leagues when a team goes 2 up. Bet was won in the 31st minute. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 8, 2021 Share Posted November 8, 2021 Flamingo to beat Chapocoense @1.40. 23.15 ko The home side are 10 without a win, bottom of the league and have conceded the most goals. Flamingo sit third 12 points off the top, but have two games in hand and have scored the most goals in the league, despite playing fewer matches. 2 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 6 hours ago, Priti priti priti Patel said: Have decided to break rules 1 and 3 again and go for Hapoel Kfar Saba (top of the Israeli second tier, 5-4-1) at 4/6 to beat Hapoel Ra'anana (bottom of the same league, 1-2-7) this afternoon. Kfar Saba had moved from what I thought was a generous 4/6 at lunchtime to Evens at kick off. Evidently the bookies knew something I didn't because the two teams have just drawn, with the bottom placed team having the best of the match. That's me back to zero and I will have to start again with another new £1. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 1 hour ago, Tommy Carcetti said: Flamingo to beat Chapocoense @1.40. 23.15 ko The home side are 10 without a win, bottom of the league and have conceded the most goals. Flamingo sit third 12 points off the top, but have two games in hand and have scored the most goals in the league, despite playing fewer matches. Looks like both sides have a few injuries, nothing that should give either an extra advantage. I've jumped in on this one. 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 8, 2021 Author Share Posted November 8, 2021 (edited) Just won a couple of in-play bets on throws ins and goal kicks within specific 5 minute periods in two overseas games. So, here's my running total: £1.00 Cesena v Pescara throw-ins @ 1/3 = £1.30 Montevideo v Cerro Largo goal kick @ 1/2 = £1.50 I''ll add the 80p winnings to my bet on Flamengo meaning I now have £1.80 on Flamengo @ 1.32. Edited November 8, 2021 by Priti priti priti Patel 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 22 hours ago, Tommy Carcetti said: Running total £1.00 Sporting @1.58 = £1.58 River @1.36 = £2.12 Flamingo @1.40 Back to the start we go. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 4 hours ago, Tommy Carcetti said: Flamingo @1.40 Back to the start we go. These things happen, but that's two seemingly nailed on overseas games which let me down yesterday, so I'm going back to basics. Buxton to beat Atherton tonight in the Northern Premier League. 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 9, 2021 Share Posted November 9, 2021 Going for a bigger price to kick start the 2nd attempt. Brackley to beat Spennymoor in the National League North @1.85 1 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
Priti priti priti Patel Posted November 9, 2021 Author Share Posted November 9, 2021 Running total £1.00 Buxton @ 1/2 = £1.50 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Running total. £1.00 Brackley @1.85 = £1.85 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
D Angelo Barksdale Posted November 10, 2021 Share Posted November 10, 2021 Lyon women to beat Bayern women @1.44 0 Quote Link to comment Share on other sites More sharing options...
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