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Which Clubs in the Highland League in Five Seasons' Time?


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1 minute ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Was it not reported that the HL clubs get to designate the league they would be relegated into? If so, I suspect it's only FW, Brora and Wick that would opt for the NCL rather than the north region juniors.

I was thinking that too, but maybe the NCL would be easier to win.

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Why would Lossie want to drop into the Shire juniors? Once BOD are promoted, that’s going to be a bloodbath of Toonser teams trying to slit each other’s throats, while the NCL is a mix of bam sides and tourist attractions. Fun days in the north or days out to Sunnybank and Hermes? No brainer. 

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Better fitba though even if you do have to visit schemes like Northfield in Aberdeen from time to time rather than hitting the tourist trail. How easy would it be to recruit the players you would need to successfully navigate a way back through the promotion playoffs for a season of away games in Caithness and Orkney in the NCL? 

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Just to keep things factual on here. The north region juniors has had Banffshire, Moray and Nairnshire clubs throughout its existance including Nairn St Ninian at present and Lossiemouth United in the not too distant past. Strathspey Thistle joined the Highland League from the north juniors and Inverness City were playing in the juniors until comparatively recently. It's difficult to see what the point of allowing clubs to choose was in the first place if it wasn't about enabling HL clubs from west of the Spey to opt for the north region.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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In terms of licensing, I can see both ourselves and Tayport getting our licenses this season. Obviously though, it's hard to predict how many others will get that far within 5 years. In the EOS plenty of clubs have been licensed now or are on the verge of it who were nowhere near when they were in the juniors.

I would not be surprised if the the first 5 seasons the tier 6 champion keeps winning the play-off. At a guess, I'd say BOD, Lochee United, Tayport, Carnoustie & Broughty have decent chances to make it in that period (with the caveat that the latter 2 need to do some more work on licensing).

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Bridge of Don Thistle must be in with a shout on licensing in the north region as well given they play at the athletics stadium close to Pittodrie (that means being close to Seaton and high rise flats and tenements though, so we can only imagine the anguish that might cause even if on a scale of 1 to Glasgow Perthshire it's still in low single digits). Once a pathway opens up maybe some other Aberdeen area clubs like Dyce, Culter and Hermes will start to take the possibility of progression more seriously and will slowly work towards it.

Think a lot of HL people don't realise how strong the Midland League is and how many of the clubs have fully enclosed grounds with devil's lanterns rather than a Forres Thistle or New Elgin type setup. It's no surprise that the ones that do would still be OK with a club 42 boundary shift in other words as the recent George Fraser resignation saga strongly suggests. Even clubs like North End, Downfield, Violet and Lochee Harp can't be that far away from ticking the boxes where their ground is concerned.

5 wins on the bounce for the tier 6 leagues from the outset might be pushing it, but it will probably happen more often than not for the first decade and is unlikely to involve progression from the NCL any time soon.

Edited by LongTimeLurker
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Dyce are already taking the opportunity to progress seriously and plans are in place to sort out lights, leaving only parking at the ground as an issue. 

Bridge of Don Thistle have a recruitment policy that suggest they fancy promotion, but they - like Dyce and BOD - have a team filled with players who didn't want to play in the SHFL because of travelling or inability to make it work around work commitments.

Problem for the Aberdeen clubs is there's almost certainly a feeling that doing anything worthwhile is a waste of time while BOD are still in the league, which will change should they get out of the way. 

 

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29 minutes ago, LongTimeLurker said:

Think a lot of HL people don't realise how strong the Midland League is and how many of the clubs have fully enclosed grounds with devil's lanterns rather than a Forres Thistle or New Elgin type setup.

They put in a relegation playoff instead of an automatic promotion berth for T6 clubs.

Haven't set a specific number on how many members the HL can have.

Let HL clubs alone dictate which league they get relegated to.

And have been entirely fine with the HL/LL boundary being scrapped if everyone agrees.

Yeah, they're totally clueless and haven't rigged the system to give existing HL members every advantage.

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3 hours ago, Marten said:

In terms of licensing, I can see both ourselves and Tayport getting our licenses this season. Obviously though, it's hard to predict how many others will get that far within 5 years. In the EOS plenty of clubs have been licensed now or are on the verge of it who were nowhere near when they were in the juniors.

I would not be surprised if the the first 5 seasons the tier 6 champion keeps winning the play-off. At a guess, I'd say BOD, Lochee United, Tayport, Carnoustie & Broughty have decent chances to make it in that period (with the caveat that the latter 2 need to do some more work on licensing).

If they replaced FW, Strathspey, Turriff, Lossie and Clach then the league would be a bit different geographically (not accounting for Elgin/an Angus team going down or a HL team going up).

hl.JPG

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Worth bearing in mind that Rothes and Brora are financially doped right now in a way that might not be the case a decade from now and were very much basement dwellers prior to that so over the next generation or so the HL may wind up being dominated by clubs in the Dundee to Aberdeen area that weren't traditionally (pre-Cove, Formartime and Inverurie) part of the league's catchment.

Think only Fraserburgh, Buckie, and Elgin and others from the SPFL if/when they get relegated as Club 42 can be highly confident about being fixtures at HL sort of level beyond that Dundee-Aberdeen axis although no doubt there will be others also involved either some or a lot of the time in the long run. Assuming Brechin City don't get their way and things stay as they are right now it will be interesting to see if Perth area clubs like Jeanfield Swifts will gravitate back towards the Midlands league setup at tier 6 now Letham, Scone Thistle and Tayport have set a useful precedent for them.

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On 26/10/2021 at 18:24, LongTimeLurker said:

Was it not reported that the HL clubs get to designate the league they would be relegated into? If so, I suspect it's only FW, Brora and Wick that would opt for the NCL rather than the north region juniors.

That was supposed to be settled by the end of July iirc, and I haven't heard a whisper. Was hoping Fort would opt for the Midland League for lols. Wouldn't make much difference to their travel time. Think you're way off on the sides choosing the North Juniors btw, why would they until you get to the likes of Keith and Turriff? 

Edited by welshbairn
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How stable is the NCL at this point? As recently as 2018-19 there was a nine club 16 game season (summer leagues often being the main focus once you get north of Inverness after all) with several of the clubs playing on unenclosed public parks. That's a big adjustment for HL clubs used to a 34 game season in enclosed grounds with floodlights. The north superleague has its drawbacks as well but provides a bit more than that.

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19 hours ago, LongTimeLurker said:

How stable is the NCL at this point? As recently as 2018-19 there was a nine club 16 game season (summer leagues often being the main focus once you get north of Inverness after all) with several of the clubs playing on unenclosed public parks. That's a big adjustment for HL clubs used to a 34 game season in enclosed grounds with floodlights. The north superleague has its drawbacks as well but provides a bit more than that.

You may be right, only time will show, but there is the anti Aberdeen factor. Clubs weren't exactly jumping over each other to get Banks O'Dee into the league in preference to Strathspey a while ago.

Besides that the current N Cal clubs (and potential ones) can now see that , as the N Cal is part of the Pyramid, there are relatively huge potential pluses which would, necessarily, mean that improved grounds/facilities are needed. Improved facilities and SFA income from licencing and SFA Cup entry are the big potential game changers for some N Cal and potential N Cal clubs.

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On 27/10/2021 at 23:33, RossBFaeDundee said:

It's not mathematically certain that Dundee couldn't be here in 5 years' time...

At least you might have another Dundee derby against us (and possibly others obviously)... 

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If Inverness City had opted for the NCL instead of the Juniors they might well have survived, instead of blowing £70,000 on getting a borrowed public park pitch up to Superleague standards and then getting evicted.

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Wasn't there talk of a joint North Juniors/Midlands League top division with the top club entering the play-off instead of separate champions from both leagues?

If that went a head wouldn't that deter some North Juniors clubs which are closer to Inverness than Aberdeen, let alone Dundee?

Given time there could be a stronger N Cal with some clubs licenced.

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