Which Clubs in the Lowland League in Five Seasons' Time?

[Dev]

Now that the WoS clubs are in the mix to move up the leagues which ones will at Lowland League level in five seasons' time i.e. after five more promotion/relegation opportunities?

The obvious ones would be Talbot, Clydebank and Darvel as they've all got their licences. If that happens then there are some decent clubs in the EoS which would stand a chance of defeating the best of the rest from the WoS if there's still not two up two down promotion/relegation, so the likes of Pollok, Kilwinning Rangers, Hurlford United, Cumnock, Irvine Meadow, etc etc may have a tougher time. 

From the present Lowland League the current bottom six look potentially vulnerable, over time, as could a few others. 

Which SPFL clubs are most likely to be "relocated" to the Lowland League? Apart from Kelty any one of the others could slide down in the next five seasons.

The Highland League may not produce many candidates until the likes of the leading North Juniors/Midlands League clubs move up. Maybe Fraserburgh and Brechin but Brora don't seem, to me, to be so ambitious at present.

Which current non-SPFL clubs are heading up-wards to that League?

Bonnyrigg Rose, East Kilbride, Talbot, come to mind straight away. Maybe the likes of Clydebank and Darvel will take a little longer. When Clydebank get there it will be to stay there this time so just when isn't so important - others will disagree!

[ian44wood]

Hopefully no f@cking B teams 

[Jacksgranda]

18 minutes ago, Dev said:

Now that the WoS clubs are in the mix to move up the leagues which ones will at Lowland League level in five seasons' time i.e. after five more promotion/relegation opportunities?

The obvious ones would be Talbot, Clydebank and Darvel as they've all got their licences. If that happens then there are some decent clubs in the EoS which would stand a chance of defeating the best of the rest from the WoS if there's still not two up two down promotion/relegation, so the likes of Pollok, Kilwinning Rangers, Hurlford United, Cumnock, Irvine Meadow, etc etc may have a tougher time. 

From the present Lowland League the current bottom six look potentially vulnerable, over time, as could a few others. 

Which SPFL clubs are most likely to be "relocated" to the Lowland League? Apart from Kelty any one of the others could slide down in the next five seasons.

The Highland League may not produce many candidates until the likes of the leading North Juniors/Midlands League clubs move up. Maybe Fraserburgh and Brechin but Brora don't seem, to me, to be so ambitious at present.

Which current non-SPFL clubs are heading up-wards to that League?

Bonnyrigg Rose, East Kilbride, Talbot, come to mind straight away. Maybe the likes of Clydebank and Darvel will take a little longer. When Clydebank get there it will be to stay there this time so just when isn't so important - others will disagree!

Cowdenbeath, Albion Rovers, Stenhousemuir, Elgin City (who will return to the Highland League, obviously) and a "surprise".

However, I can't see all 5 disappearing in the next five years, 2/3 at the most.

[theesel1994]

I was wondering about a similar thing at the weekend. My thought was, imagine you created a League out of the top ten LL clubs and top ten WoSFL clubs, how many of each league would then make up a 16 club new League. Second scenario was the same idea but swap EoSFL for West. The third scenario was top eight from the three Leagues being narrowed down to 18 - in this hypothetical scenario they had no cup fixtures to worry  about. 

When you look at the progress of the clubs that have gone up to SPFL from LL/HL and also lack of progress from those that have come down I can see WoSFL/East clubs going straight through LL to SPFL. I can see Talbot go up to League One and maybe yoyo between that and L2.

[FairWeatherFan]

It's more a question of what the pyramid structure and promotion formats will look like in 5 years time.

 

 

[Deanburn Dave]

Hopefully in a few years time with a few more ex juniors up in the LL there will be sufficient votes to have an automatic 2 up from tier 6 to tier 5.

[Barry Ferguson's Hat]

Clyde.

[Gordon EF]

7 hours ago, theesel1994 said:

When you look at the progress of the clubs that have gone up to SPFL from LL/HL and also lack of progress from those that have come down I can see WoSFL/East clubs going straight through LL to SPFL. I can see Talbot go up to League One and maybe yoyo between that and L2.

Cove and Kelty are pretty terrible yardsticks to judge how future "pyramid champions" will get on in the SPFL. Both have budgets that put them well beyond anything they faced in L2. Most other clubs will find it tougher because they can't just go and sign players from one or two tiers above whatever league they're in at the time.

There are obviously a handful of clubs in the pyramid right now who could fairly easily replace some SPFL clubs and compete when they get there, but unless there are a string of other clubs getting big cash "ambition" injections, then I think the recent trend of the play-off champions motoring straight through L2 is going to dry up pretty soon.

Despite coming very close and having a couple of very good seasons, Edinburgh City have spent 5 seasons so far in L2 (I can still remember some folk saying they'd be Championship within a few years). I think they'll be more typical of the next few teams that come up, rather than Cove or Kelty.

[bendan]

38 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Cove and Kelty are pretty terrible yardsticks to judge how future "pyramid champions" will get on in the SPFL. Both have budgets that put them well beyond anything they faced in L2. Most other clubs will find it tougher because they can't just go and sign players from one or two tiers above whatever league they're in at the time.

There are obviously a handful of clubs in the pyramid right now who could fairly easily replace some SPFL clubs and compete when they get there, but unless there are a string of other clubs getting big cash "ambition" injections, then I think the recent trend of the play-off champions motoring straight through L2 is going to dry up pretty soon.

Despite coming very close and having a couple of very good seasons, Edinburgh City have spent 5 seasons so far in L2 (I can still remember some folk saying they'd be Championship within a few years). I think they'll be more typical of the next few teams that come up, rather than Cove or Kelty.

I can't remember anyone saying Edinburgh City would be Championship. 

[Gordon EF]

24 minutes ago, bendan said:

I can't remember anyone saying Edinburgh City would be Championship. 

Incredible to think we maybe haven't read the exact same posts on Pie and Bovril over the past 5 or so years.

[bendan]

2 minutes ago, Gordon EF said:

Incredible to think we maybe haven't read the exact same posts on Pie and Bovril over the past 5 or so years.

I was thinking you meant at the time they were winning the LL, and wrongly thought you might have been meaning in the LL forum.

Quite apart from whether anyone thought that, I can't help wondering *why* anyone would have thought that. 

[Gordon EF]

7 minutes ago, bendan said:

I was thinking you meant at the time they were winning the LL, and wrongly thought you might have been meaning in the LL forum.

Quite apart from whether anyone thought that, I can't help wondering *why* anyone would have thought that. 

I'm pretty sure it wasn't ever a widely held opinion, and I'm pretty sure it was supporters of SPFL clubs.

There's always just a few folk that have a hard time recognising that all, at one point, upwardly mobile clubs will eventually hit a ceiling that's very difficult to break through (unless someone comes in and splashes silly money about).

Edited October 25, 2021 by Gordon EF

[tamthebam]

Big club as they are, are Talbot really bothered about Scottish League football? 

[San Starko Rover]

10 minutes ago, tamthebam said:

Big club as they are, are Talbot really bothered about Scottish League football? 

I’ve said for a while I fully understand Talbot’s lack of enthusiasm for the Pyramid.  They had the most to lose as the SJFA served them well, they’d become the big fish in a small pond. Absolutely no disrespect intended to Talbot as they’re a fantastically well run club with a hard working board. Their problem is they are pretty much at their ceiling as a club in terms of fan size and squad quality.  The best case scenario sees them move up into the SPFL but as a small club they’ll eventually hit their new ceiling and either level out as an also ran or head the other way back down the divisions. Fans love to watch a winning team and once they stop winning regularly they’ll lose a percentage of their fans.  There is no scenario where they continue to win trophies as they did in the SJFA well apart from a Saudi takeover. 
 

Pollok for me is the most likely to establish themselves if they can get a licensed ground. As for the future of the LL, it’s impossible to say but it’s going to be a good strong league in the future with the best for the WOSFL, the EOSFL and teams dropping out the SPFL.  Let’s just hope the promotion and relegation is increased to allow teams to find their level as it’ll take a few years to achieve this and there’s a few teams in the SPFL and LL who need to accept this for the greater good (Hot Fuzz) of Scottish football.  Self preservation is bad for the league. 
 

Also get B Teams in the sea ASAP.  

[VillanoXIV]

Relegated to the Lowland:

Bottom half of League 2 is crammed with Lowland catchment teams and I would expect Cowdenbeath, Stenhousemuir and Albion Rovers (sadly, as I have a big soft spot for them) to be down in the Lowland with Elgin possibly going to the Highland and law of averages saying that at least one Club 42 will beat the drop in the next five years.

Promoted out the Lowland:

I am absolutely convinced that Talbot will win the Lowland at first attempt and settle into SPFL mediocrity by then. 

i think Bonnyrigg will get out this year but not go on a mad  Cove/Kelty League 2 speedrun and end up becoming the new “cloggers” battling to avoid relegation in five years.

The other three years will see Brechin somehow pull themselves back out the discard pile, plus another ambitious Highland team and the aforementioned Club 42 defying the odds one season.

I think EK are pumped. They had five/six years of money chucked at them against the village teams/youth clubs to get them to League 2 and it’s not happened. They have cratered this year and all the weaker teams are going to be replaced with bigger teams than EK.

Relegated out the Lowland:

Vale of Leithen are obviously in big trouble, while the Uni clubs won’t be far behind them.

I can also see TAFKA BSC Glasgow crashing out in five years tbh. The wheels have fallen off a bit this season and I think they will really struggle to compete with a flood of far more attractive teams for players to go to.

For that reason, I think Caley Braves will not be there in five years either. They’ve changed their identity and I just do not see them competing on a budget of app-wielding trainspotters and French maws paying tuition fees.

Cumbernauld Colts are probably going to be stretched as well as the league starts to shift from community clubs and parochial village teams to ambitious ex-Junior teams and you would probably fear for them by 2026.

Promoted to the Lowland:

Again, in five years time, Talbot will have sailed through the Lowland and found their place in League 1/2. Darvel and Clydebank will probably come up in that time as well, possibly Pollok too.

From the East, I imagine Penicuik will go up this year and keep their place by virtue of being better than the LL bottom feeders mentioned above while Linlithgow Rose will make their way up.

B Teams:

The OF will get bored in about two years and f**k off to some shiny new reserves League when they realise they can’t buy their way into League 2. No one will give a f**k.

So my 18 team Lowland League in 2026 will probably finish something like:

Clydebank

Cowdenbeath

Linlithgow Rose 

Darvel

Albion Rovers

Spartans

Irvine Meadow

Pollok

East Stirlingshire

Stenhousemuir

Berwick Rangers

Bo’ness United

Gretna 2008

Gala Fairydean Rovers

East Kilbride

Dalbeattie Star

Penicuik Athletic

Civil Service Strollers

[FairWeatherFan]

5 hours ago, VillanoXIV said:

I think EK are pumped. They had five/six years of money chucked at them against the village teams/youth clubs to get them to League 2 and it’s not happened. They have cratered this year and all the weaker teams are going to be replaced with bigger teams than EK.

As long as the money is there EK are going to be a threat to the title. They're off the pace right now due to management issues more than anything. What's probably most important for them long term is getting their new ground.

[AsimButtHitsASix]

5 hours ago, VillanoXIV said:

Relegated to the Lowland:

Bottom half of League 2 is crammed with Lowland catchment teams and I would expect Cowdenbeath, Stenhousemuir and Albion Rovers (sadly, as I have a big soft spot for them) to be down in the Lowland with Elgin possibly going to the Highland and law of averages saying that at least one Club 42 will beat the drop in the next five years.

Promoted out the Lowland:

I am absolutely convinced that Talbot will win the Lowland at first attempt and settle into SPFL mediocrity by then. 

i think Bonnyrigg will get out this year but not go on a mad  Cove/Kelty League 2 speedrun and end up becoming the new “cloggers” battling to avoid relegation in five years.

The other three years will see Brechin somehow pull themselves back out the discard pile, plus another ambitious Highland team and the aforementioned Club 42 defying the odds one season.

I think EK are pumped. They had five/six years of money chucked at them against the village teams/youth clubs to get them to League 2 and it’s not happened. They have cratered this year and all the weaker teams are going to be replaced with bigger teams than EK.

Relegated out the Lowland:

Vale of Leithen are obviously in big trouble, while the Uni clubs won’t be far behind them.

I can also see TAFKA BSC Glasgow crashing out in five years tbh. The wheels have fallen off a bit this season and I think they will really struggle to compete with a flood of far more attractive teams for players to go to.

For that reason, I think Caley Braves will not be there in five years either. They’ve changed their identity and I just do not see them competing on a budget of app-wielding trainspotters and French maws paying tuition fees.

Cumbernauld Colts are probably going to be stretched as well as the league starts to shift from community clubs and parochial village teams to ambitious ex-Junior teams and you would probably fear for them by 2026.

Promoted to the Lowland:

Again, in five years time, Talbot will have sailed through the Lowland and found their place in League 1/2. Darvel and Clydebank will probably come up in that time as well, possibly Pollok too.

From the East, I imagine Penicuik will go up this year and keep their place by virtue of being better than the LL bottom feeders mentioned above while Linlithgow Rose will make their way up.

B Teams:

The OF will get bored in about two years and f**k off to some shiny new reserves League when they realise they can’t buy their way into League 2. No one will give a f**k.

So my 18 team Lowland League in 2026 will probably finish something like:

Clydebank

Cowdenbeath

Linlithgow Rose 

Darvel

Albion Rovers

Spartans

Irvine Meadow

Pollok

East Stirlingshire

Stenhousemuir

Berwick Rangers

Bo’ness United

Gretna 2008

Gala Fairydean Rovers

East Kilbride

Dalbeattie Star

Penicuik Athletic

Civil Service Strollers

I can't imagine Gretna staying up for five years. The nature of the beast also seems to mean teams from the the Souh can fluctuate a good bit season to season. As well as they are doing right now I can foresee one bad season for either Dalbeattie or Gala in the next five years so I think one of them might drop. 

[oneteaminglasgow]

5 hours ago, VillanoXIV said:

Relegated to the Lowland:

Bottom half of League 2 is crammed with Lowland catchment teams and I would expect Cowdenbeath, Stenhousemuir and Albion Rovers (sadly, as I have a big soft spot for them) to be down in the Lowland with Elgin possibly going to the Highland and law of averages saying that at least one Club 42 will beat the drop in the next five years.

Promoted out the Lowland:

I am absolutely convinced that Talbot will win the Lowland at first attempt and settle into SPFL mediocrity by then. 

i think Bonnyrigg will get out this year but not go on a mad  Cove/Kelty League 2 speedrun and end up becoming the new “cloggers” battling to avoid relegation in five years.

The other three years will see Brechin somehow pull themselves back out the discard pile, plus another ambitious Highland team and the aforementioned Club 42 defying the odds one season.

I think EK are pumped. They had five/six years of money chucked at them against the village teams/youth clubs to get them to League 2 and it’s not happened. They have cratered this year and all the weaker teams are going to be replaced with bigger teams than EK.

Relegated out the Lowland:

Vale of Leithen are obviously in big trouble, while the Uni clubs won’t be far behind them.

I can also see TAFKA BSC Glasgow crashing out in five years tbh. The wheels have fallen off a bit this season and I think they will really struggle to compete with a flood of far more attractive teams for players to go to.

For that reason, I think Caley Braves will not be there in five years either. They’ve changed their identity and I just do not see them competing on a budget of app-wielding trainspotters and French maws paying tuition fees.

Cumbernauld Colts are probably going to be stretched as well as the league starts to shift from community clubs and parochial village teams to ambitious ex-Junior teams and you would probably fear for them by 2026.

Promoted to the Lowland:

Again, in five years time, Talbot will have sailed through the Lowland and found their place in League 1/2. Darvel and Clydebank will probably come up in that time as well, possibly Pollok too.

From the East, I imagine Penicuik will go up this year and keep their place by virtue of being better than the LL bottom feeders mentioned above while Linlithgow Rose will make their way up.

B Teams:

The OF will get bored in about two years and f**k off to some shiny new reserves League when they realise they can’t buy their way into League 2. No one will give a f**k.

So my 18 team Lowland League in 2026 will probably finish something like:

Clydebank

Cowdenbeath

Linlithgow Rose 

Darvel

Albion Rovers

Spartans

Irvine Meadow

Pollok

East Stirlingshire

Stenhousemuir

Berwick Rangers

Bo’ness United

Gretna 2008

Gala Fairydean Rovers

East Kilbride

Dalbeattie Star

Penicuik Athletic

Civil Service Strollers

Interesting point about EK - I think that, of all the current non-league sides, they have the most potential. It’s a very big town, if they can find a way to get a solid support base out of it then they should do ok. Might take a while though.

I also wouldn’t be remotely surprised if at least one of Caley Braves or BSC Glasgow (or whatever they’re calling themselves now) didn’t exist in 5 years time. Both seem to exist purely as playthings for an owner, without fans, a ground or a natural home area. That can’t be sustainable, I’d have thought. Wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them get wound up once the owner pulls the plug. 

[FairWeatherFan]

1 minute ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

I also wouldn’t be remotely surprised if at least one of Caley Braves or BSC Glasgow (or whatever they’re calling themselves now) didn’t exist in 5 years time. Both seem to exist purely as playthings for an owner, without fans, a ground or a natural home area. That can’t be sustainable, I’d have thought. Wouldn’t be shocked to see one of them get wound up once the owner pulls the plug. 

Caley Braves might be a plaything, but its backed by a legit business in Edusport Academy. As long as that stays viable the Braves will be kept going. They'll be around.

Broomhill's a different story. It does not look at all likely they'll end up in Glasgow with their own ground. Eventually someone will call time on it.

[oneteaminglasgow]

4 minutes ago, FairWeatherFan said:

Caley Braves might be a plaything, but its backed by a legit business in Edusport Academy. As long as that stays viable the Braves will be kept going. They'll be around.

Broomhill's a different story. It does not look at all likely they'll end up in Glasgow with their own ground. Eventually someone will call time on it.

Broomhill it is then.

What a terrible, terrible shame.