State of the group

[Gordopolis]

Much as I'd love to put Wales out, that tie gives me the fear.  I still remember that miserable pair of games last time we had them in qualifying.
There's no-one in that list I'd be otherwise really worried about.  All have the potential to take the piss out of us, but we can beat all of them too.  So, so important to get that seeded spot.

This. I'm still scarred by those two games. I admit I let wild expectation get the better of me, and definitely underrated Wales (who were at that time just becoming the side they have been since).

[craigkillie]

We should have beaten them in Cardiff, we were the better team for an hour, went 1-0 up and had a second goal wrongly disallowed.

[forameus]

I remember turning to my pal (in the Welsh end, he was living in Cardiff at the time) and saying "they're celebrating this like they've w..." but not getting to finish the sentence as Bale punted in the winner.  Cue some of the missing link looking c***s that were sitting in front of us leaping from their seats to physically attack the one Scottish fan who had tried to give them a square go at our opener.

Fucking brilliant weekend after the game though.

[The Moonster]

Not understanding the fear of Wales, get them pumped. I'd take Austria, Wales or Romania there no problem. The others are beatable but I don't fancy us as much. 

[Paco]

Romania and Serbia at Hampden definitely falls into very doable territory. Norway at home followed by Croatia or Sweden away feels unlikely.

We really need to a) finish in the seeded position to give a home first leg and b) ask for a fair bit of luck of the draw, giving us a home final and a nicer seeded side.

Got to do a) first and foremost, otherwise we really are asking for a very lucky draw to have any hope.

[2426255]

There's so much that could change between now and then I don't see how anyone could tell what would be a good draw. Our own outlook has changed considerably from March '21 for example.

[Fuctifano]

In terms of actually getting seeded, on the hugely risky assumption we win both tonight and vs Moldova that would put us on "net" 14 points before the last game. We need to finish ahead of 4 groups to be seeded.

I think groups A-C are unlikely to have runner up totals less than 16 points which means we'd need to beat Denmark.

In A, Serbia are on 14 with Azerbaijan at home still to come and Portugal are on 13 with 3 games still to play

In B, Spain are on 13 with Sweden and Greece still to play and Sweden are on 12 with 3 games still to play. Spain might well end up second in that group if Sweden can get a draw in Spain (which they did in the Euros)

In C, Italy are on 14 and have Switzerland and NI still to play. The Swiss are on 11 with games vs Bulgaria and Lithuania still to come as well as Italy

The other groups are a bit more of a mixed bag:

In D Ukraine's last 2 games are both vs Bosnia, as long as one of those is a draw then "net" 14 i.e a win tonight (and assuming we finish 2nd) will be enough to finish ahead of that group

In E Wales are in a slightly similar position to us in that their last game is at home to a most likely already qualified top seed, in this case Belgium. Wales do also have the safety net of the NL route if they lose to Belgium, as do the Czechs if Wales finish above them. Both Wales and Czechs likely to finish on 14.

In G the last match is Netherlands vs Norway with Turkey's 99th minute winner last night keeping them in the hunt for 2nd should the Dutch and Turkish win out. If that happens Turkey will be on 21 net 15. 

In H we're probably wanting Russia to beat Croatia (in Croatia) on the last day as that would leave Croatia on a max of net 14 points

In I we'll know more after tonight but if the Poles win out theyll be on 23 net 17 which will be almost impossible to better so a draw between them and Albania tonight or even an Albania win would be handy

In J the most a runner up can get is 19 points which would be net 13 for Romania and North Macedonia, but Armenia dropped points to Lichtenstein so in the event they come 2nd  with 18 points they'd only lose 4 points which would put them on net 14. 

I think the 4 groups to target are D, J, E and H

Edited October 12, 2021 by Fuctifano

[VictorOnopko]

Am I right in thinking that the nations league play off spots for the group winners are unseeded?

If so, that's good because if we *do* manage to finish second in a seeded spot, then we have more than made up for massively f*cking it up when we had the chance to secure the play off well in advance.

I would not want Wales or Norway in the PO draw.

[AJF]

4 minutes ago, Fuctifano said:

In terms of actually getting seeded, on the hugely risky assumption we win both tonight and vs Moldova that would put us on "net" 14 points before the last game. We need to finish ahead of 4 groups to be seeded.

I think groups A-C are unlikely to have runner up totals less than 16 points which means we'd need to beat Denmark.

In A, Serbia are on 14 with Azerbaijan at home still to come and Portugal are on 13 with 3 games still to play

In B, Spain are on 13 with Sweden and Greece still to play and Sweden are on 12 with 3 games still to play. Spain might well end up second in that group if Sweden can get a draw in Spain (which they did in the Euros)

In C, Italy are on 14 and have Switzerland and NI still to play. The Swiss are on 11 with games vs Bulgaria and Lithuania still to come.

The other groups are a bit more of a mixed bag:

In D Ukraine's last 2 games are both vs Bosnia, as long as one of those is a draw then "net" 14 i.e a win tonight (and assuming we finish 2nd) will be enough to finish ahead of that group

In E Wales are in a slightly similar position to us in that their last game is at home to a most likely already qualified top seed, in this case Belgium. Wales do also have the safety net of the NL route if they lose to Belgium, as do the Czechs if Wales finish above them. Both Wales and Czechs likely to finish on 14.

In G the last match is Netherlands vs Norway with Turkey's 99th minute winner last night keeping them in the hunt for 2nd should the Dutch and Turkish win out. If that happens Turkey will be on 21 net 15. 

In H we're probably wanting Russia to beat Croatia (in Croatia) on the last day as that would leave Croatia on a max of net 14 points

In I we'll know more after tonight but if the Poles win out theyll be on 17 which will be hard to catch so a draw between them and Albania tonight or even an Albania win would be handy

In J the most a runner up can get is 19 points which would be net 13 for Romania and North Macedonia, but Armenia dropped points to Lichtenstein so in the event they come 2nd they'd only lose 4 points which would put them on net 14. 

I think the 4 groups to target are D, J, E and H

Excellent post and analysis of the groups. Cheers.

[Fuctifano]

6 minutes ago, VictorOnopko said:

Am I right in thinking that the nations league play off spots for the group winners are unseeded?

 

Yes. 

Also on the basis that none of France, Spain, Belgium, or Italy somehow finish outside the top 2 in their group then the two playoff teams will be Austria and whoever finishes 3rd out of Wales and the Czechs

edit: if Austria finish second in our group then Hungary would be next up but if Austria finish second then we're obviously oot!

Edited October 12, 2021 by Fuctifano

[Blootoon87]

Give me Wales, because I'll tell you what, I will love it if we beat them. Love it.

[VictorOnopko]

3 minutes ago, Blootoon87 said:

Give me Wales, because I'll tell you what, I will love it if we beat them. Love it.

Wales is the highest risk draw - it would indeed be delicious to pap them out, but they would probably be the most painful team to lose to.  I fear Bale would find a way to enrage us.

[Pie Of The Month]

 

[Pie Of The Month]

and just Scotland's chances of being seeded....

 

 

[G51]

I watched Wales last night and it’s unthinkable that we’d lose a game to those jobbers. An absolutely pathetic football team.

[AJF]

46 minutes ago, Pie Of The Month said:

and just Scotland's chances of being seeded....

 

 

So to have a realistic chance of being seeded we will need to take at least 7 points from our final 3 matches if I am reading that right?

[Savage Henry]

2 minutes ago, G51 said:

I watched Wales last night and it’s unthinkable that we’d lose a game to those jobbers. An absolutely pathetic football team.

That’s akin to saying “and nothing can possibly go wrong now…” 

[Blootoon87]

So to have a realistic chance of being seeded we will need to take at least 7 points from our final 3 matches if I am reading that right?

Presumably the goal difference would help. Could really do with taking a few off the Faroes tonight.

[WeAllDreamOfATeamOfAndyRyans]

I think the projections there make a few pretty big assumptions.  Norway are probably going to struggle as their last game is away to the Netherlands and Netherlands will need to win.  Turkey will probably pip them imo.
Russia are more likely to be in the playoffs than Croatia I'd think.
Poland, Romania and Ukraine all have plenty work to do to make the playoffs as well

If we somehow ended up against Turkey I think we could beat them, watched their game against Latvia last night and although they won 2-1 in the last min with a 90+9 min penalty, they looked utter shite

[Billy Jean King]

I watched Wales last night and it’s unthinkable that we’d lose a game to those jobbers. An absolutely pathetic football team.

The flip side. Watched them on Friday night and thought at 2v2 "they are all over a team we just lost pretty tamely to at home". Wales would be a tough, tough game.