State of the group

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

12 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

The swing is only 7 goals with a head to head still to come between Austria and Israel. You started by saying there isn't a plausible series of results that would leave Austria in 2nd place. It's there, it's not an unrealistic series of events.

Clearly your definition of plausible and mine aren't on the same page.

We'll agree to disagree.

[2426255]

My definition of plausible is that it is a reasonable, fair or believable idea.

It's not like I'm saying Israel will be hit with Covid call offs or that Austria will go to Denmark and put 4 past them. It's within your own criteria and  within the limits of what could happen, you just don't want to accept that so you're being pedantic over definitions. Poor. 

If Austria beat the Faroe Islands and Scotland v Israel ends in a draw then the table would show Scotland (12), Israel (11), Austria (10) and it's game on again with Austria having something to play for in Denmark.

Edited September 9, 2021 by 2426255

[Donathan]

Job not done yet but the latest set of results leave us firmly in the driving seat for second place with three fixtures left.

 

Denmark just need 3 more points from the available 9 to seal their tickets to Qatar. Even if Austria can get an unlikely point in Copenhagen on Tuesday, you’d think the Danes will beat the Faroes at home on match day 9 to seal qualification with a game to spare.

 

Austria go to Denmark on Tuesday then finish with Israel and Moldova at home

 

Israel host Moldova on Tuesday, go to Austria on 12th November then return home to finish against the Faroes

 

We, of course, are in the Faroes on Tuesday, go to Moldova on the 12th and then finish at home to the mighty Danes.

 

We have 14 points and each of our two rivals have 10. The maximum either of them could reach is 19, so two wins would be enough to seal second place. If their game ends up being a draw, then 4 points will be enough for us.

 

If Denmark do the business and beat Austria on Tuesday then we should be crossing our fingers for Austria to beat Israel at home on 12th November. If these two results happen then we only need one more win to finish second.

 

In any case, we need to try and scud both the minnows away from home and go all out for a point against Denmark because seeding could be very important for the playoffs. 

[2426255]

5 hours ago, Donathan said:

In any case, we need to try and scud both the minnows away from home and go all out for a point against Denmark because seeding could be very important for the playoffs. 

No need to scud Moldova as their results won't count assuming they finish last. Away to the Faroes makes me nervous lol, I'd take a one nil right now.

 

[ahemps]

On 10/10/2021 at 09:34, 2426255 said:

No need to scud Moldova as their results won't count assuming they finish last. Away to the Faroes makes me nervous lol, I'd take a one nil right now.

 

They still count in terms of actually finishing 2nd in the group.

I think the points against the bottom seed don't count for the seeding for the playoffs.

[forameus]

2 hours ago, ahemps said:

They still count in terms of actually finishing 2nd in the group.

I think the points against the bottom seed don't count for the seeding for the playoffs.

As loathe as I am to agree with them, it's more the "scudding" part that isn't necessary. Ultimately it probably won't matter whether we win 1-0 against Moldova or 10-0, as the goal difference won't count towards the 2nd placed table.  We obviously need the points, but not the big win.  It's the Faroes we really need to rack up goals against, as they will almost certainly finish 5th barring a big turnaround.

EDIT: Although to be honest, it would be nice to set the team out to give Moldova that scudding, even if it isn't strictly necessary.  Adams/Nisbet getting a few, Dykes too, could do wonders for confidence going into the games that really matter.  And who knows, maybe Nisbet gets a hat-trick against Moldova, and then that confidence leads to him pulling out something crazy against Denmark, and that leads to us getting a seeded spot.  

Edited October 11, 2021 by forameus

[Ginaro]

Assuming we win tomorrow (and in Moldova), we'll have at least 14 points and +5 or more GD for the play-off seeding. So we need four teams to be worse that than if we are to be seeded.

Group J can only manage 13 points with Romania. Group D looks like they might take points off each for 2nd as well.

Few others where they might also be on 14 points - getting something from Denmark at home, with both teams having qualified 1st and 2nd, could be crucial. Or pumping the Faroes to help the GD.

[Les Cabbage]

Projected play offs based on some computer somewhere:

With North Macedonia and Albania dropping off it suddenly looks a bit more scary.

Romania definitely the most appealing.

Norway and Haaland give me the fear, I don’t want to play the Czechs again and Wales always beat us.

[Donathan]

22 minutes ago, Les Cabbage said:

Projected play offs based on some computer somewhere:

With North Macedonia and Albania dropping off it suddenly looks a bit more scary.

Romania definitely the most appealing.

Norway and Haaland give me the fear, I don’t want to play the Czechs again and Wales always beat us.

 

None of those away teams are world beaters. We're not guaranteed to beat them by any means, but you need to be taking care of teams like that if you want to be making the world cup (Only 13 UEFA berths, so it's almost twice as difficult to qualify compared to the Euros)#

 

The Czechs beat us in the Euros but we have a decent record against them in a number of competitive matches over the past 12 years. We had our chances that day and their second goal was a freak event. There's no reason we can't beat them in a rematch.

 

Austria we just took 4 points out of 6 against.

 

Romania and Ukraine are decent sides but are the sort of teams you need to beat to make world cup finals.

 

I'm more worried about the prospect of an away final tbh. I wouldn't back us to win against any of those teams away from home, including Serbia who we were a bit lucky to get to penalties against. I really hope we get drawn to host the final as well, although even still you'd think Poland and Croatia would be favourites at Hampden and Sweden/Switzerland are toss-ups at best.

[Caley Shaun]

25 minutes ago, Les Cabbage said:

Projected play offs based on some computer somewhere:

With North Macedonia and Albania dropping off it suddenly looks a bit more scary.

Romania definitely the most appealing.

Norway and Haaland give me the fear, I don’t want to play the Czechs again and Wales always beat us.

I wouldn't mind Ukraine either as it's been a while since we last played them, 2007 campaign if I remember correctly. We lost 2-0 away the midweek after the famous Hampden 1-0 v France and a 3-1 home win where Faddy scored a couple of individual wonder goals. 

[oneteaminglasgow]

3 minutes ago, Donathan said:

including Serbia who we were a bit lucky to get to penalties against. 

In what way? My memory is that we should have won it in 90 minutes. 

[Donathan]

15 minutes ago, oneteaminglasgow said:

In what way? My memory is that we should have won it in 90 minutes. 

We should have, but then after the gut punch of conceding in injury time we struggled to hold on through the extra half hour 

[craigkillie]

They had one half chance in extra time.

[Gordopolis]

I wouldn't mind Ukraine either as it's been a while since we last played them, 2007 campaign if I remember correctly. We lost 2-0 away the midweek after the famous Hampden 1-0 v France and a 3-1 home win where Faddy scored a couple of individual wonder goals. 

Just the one from Faddy (the third) - Miller and McCulloch got 1 & 2.
Weirdly it's this game that people keep remembering different scorers & scorelines from - my mates always refer to "mind that time we scudded Ukraine 4-0"*

*Yes, I do have mates, despite being a pedantic virgin

[Blootoon87]

Just the one from Faddy (the third) - Miller and McCulloch got 1 & 2.
Weirdly it's this game that people keep remembering different scorers & scorelines from - my mates always refer to "mind that time we scudded Ukraine 4-0"*

*Yes, I do have mates, despite being a pedantic virgin

Loved the McCulloch goal in that game.

[forameus]

Much as I'd love to put Wales out, that tie gives me the fear.  I still remember that miserable pair of games last time we had them in qualifying.

There's no-one in that list I'd be otherwise really worried about.  All have the potential to take the piss out of us, but we can beat all of them too.  So, so important to get that seeded spot.

[ahemps]

24 minutes ago, forameus said:

Much as I'd love to put Wales out, that tie gives me the fear.  I still remember that miserable pair of games last time we had them in qualifying.

There's no-one in that list I'd be otherwise really worried about.  All have the potential to take the piss out of us, but we can beat all of them too.  So, so important to get that seeded spot.

I agree, I would be wary of Wales as well but how are they so good? Their team last night apart from James and Ramsay was full of Championship players, 2 squad members of EPL teams and 1 guy from Venezia. They just drew away to the Czechs which did not surprise me 1 bit but if we got a draw away to a full strength Czech team we would be delighted where as it feels that is the kind of result to expect from them now.

On paper we are surely stronger than them????

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

I think the projections there make a few pretty big assumptions.  Norway are probably going to struggle as their last game is away to the Netherlands and Netherlands will need to win.  Turkey will probably pip them imo.

Russia are more likely to be in the playoffs than Croatia I'd think.

Poland, Romania and Ukraine all have plenty work to do to make the playoffs as well

[ArabFC]

10 hours ago, Donathan said:

I'm more worried about the prospect of an away final tbh. I wouldn't back us to win against any of those teams away from home, including Serbia who we were a bit lucky to get to penalties against. I really hope we get drawn to host the final as well, although even still you'd think Poland and Croatia would be favourites at Hampden and Sweden/Switzerland are toss-ups at best.

We dominated 85 minutes of that game in Belgrade - one of our most complete performances in years,

[velo army]

I'm weirdly confident of beating Denmark. They scored those two goals we gifted them, and then it was a thoroughly even game in the second half, and I'm not convinced it was because they took the foot off the gas, rather I think that the change in our set-up and mentality made it so. If we get some good momentum from the Faroes and Moldova games, I can see us beating them at a packed Hampden. 

In terms of who I want in the PO, obviously Romania as we haven't played them competitively for 30 years. I kinda want Russia too, as we're a different team to the one that conceded so meekly to them a couple of years ago. I don't want to play the Czechs again for a while and I absolutely want to pump Serbia again. Bring back Gallagher just for that game.