State of the group

[Donathan]

Clearly, last night’s result puts us in good position to finish second. Israel are likely our main challengers now, with Austria having a disastrous 2 results this week. 

 

AFAIK,

 

3 wins (Israel H, Faroes and Moldova A) gets us second 

 

If we draw with Israel and beat the minnows, Israel finish above is if they win in Austria. If they draw in Austria it’ll come down to GD, if they lose in Austria then 7 points will be enough.

 

Austria cannot finish above us unless they beat Denmark or we drop something to one of the minnows.

 

If we do make the playoffs, as things stand we’d need to beat two of: 

 

Serbia

Russia

Sweden

Poland

Switzerland

Czech Republic

Norway

Armenia

Ukraine

Wales*

Austria*
 

 

* Through UNL.

 

We need to be a top 6 second place team to get a home semi final, so a point against Denmark and beating Israel at home would be very helpful. It would also be helpful to get decent wins in the away games in case it comes down to GD (albeit the Moldova game will not count) 

[2426255]

This group is not over, far from it. Austria, Israel and Scotland are all in positions where they can achieve the playoff spot. If we lose to Israel and Austria beat the Faroe Islands the table will look like this:

• Israel - 13
• Scotland - 11
• Austria - 10

So don't count your chickens just yet or you might end up like Bing McCrosby with egg on his face.

Edited September 8, 2021 by 2426255

[Donathan]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

This group is not over, far from it. Austria, Israel and Scotland are all in positions where they can achieve the playoff spot. If we lose to Israel and Austria beat the Faroe Islands the table will look like this:

• Israel - 13
• Scotland - 11
• Austria - 10

So don't count your chickens just yet or you might end up like Bing McCrosby with egg on his face.

I mean obviously we will be in trouble if we lose to Israel at home but we can’t be losing that game and expect to be serious contenders to make the finals. 4 points against Israel is the absolute minimum we should be targeting (albeit there’s conceivably a route where we only get 2 points and still finish second) 

[2426255]

29 minutes ago, Donathan said:

I mean obviously we will be in trouble if we lose to Israel at home but we can’t be losing that game and expect to be serious contenders to make the finals. 4 points against Israel is the absolute minimum we should be targeting (albeit there’s conceivably a route where we only get 2 points and still finish second) 

What about a draw? what's more realistic? us drawing at home to Israel or us beating Israel? If we draw with Israel and Austria win:

• Scotland - 12
• Israel - 11
• Austria - 10

Edited September 8, 2021 by 2426255

[forameus]

If we don't beat Israel, it swings around to them being favourites.  We have pretty similar run-ins, but they have Austria when we have Denmark.  A Denmark who are scudding everyone, and an Austria who will likely have absolutely nothing to play for.  A draw isn't the end of the world, but it puts us in a really difficult position. Even if we sneak 2nd in those circumstances, we've probably fucked seeding.

[2426255]

5 minutes ago, forameus said:

If we don't beat Israel, it swings around to them being favourites.  We have pretty similar run-ins, but they have Austria when we have Denmark.  A Denmark who are scudding everyone, and an Austria who will likely have absolutely nothing to play for.  A draw isn't the end of the world, but it puts us in a really difficult position. Even if we sneak 2nd in those circumstances, we've probably fucked seeding.

I don't think there is a favorite at this point. I could see plausible scenarios where any of Israel, Austria and Scotland finish 2nd.

[realmadrid]

1 hour ago, Donathan said:

Clearly, last night’s result puts us in good position to finish second. Israel are likely our main challengers now, with Austria having a disastrous 2 results this week. 

 

AFAIK,

 

3 wins (Israel H, Faroes and Moldova A) gets us second 

 

If we draw with Israel and beat the minnows, Israel finish above is if they win in Austria. If they draw in Austria it’ll come down to GD, if they lose in Austria then 7 points will be enough.

 

Austria cannot finish above us unless they beat Denmark or we drop something to one of the minnows.

 

If we do make the playoffs, as things stand we’d need to beat two of: 

 

Serbia

Russia

Sweden

Poland

Switzerland

Czech Republic

Norway

Armenia

Ukraine

Wales*

Austria*
 

 

* Through UNL.

 

We need to be a top 6 second place team to get a home semi final, so a point against Denmark and beating Israel at home would be very helpful. It would also be helpful to get decent wins in the away games in case it comes down to GD (albeit the Moldova game will not count) 

With regard to the ranking of the 2nd place teams this is how i see it today, the dropping of points for groups F to J and the uneven fixtures in groups A to E don't make it straight forward to look at but we are doing ok.

• Serbia 11 points from 5 games - goal difference 12-7 
• Russia 10 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-4
• Sweden 9 points from 3 games - Goal difference 6-1
• Scotland 8 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-5
• Poland 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 11-6
• Switzerland 7 points from 3 games - goal difference 4-1
• Czech Republic 7 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-7
• Norway 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 4-4
• Armenia 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 5-8
• Ukraine 5 points from 5 games - goal difference 6-6

[forameus]

10 minutes ago, 2426255 said:

I don't think there is a favorite at this point. I could see plausible scenarios where any of Israel, Austria and Scotland finish 2nd.

We're favourites at the moment.  Win at home against Israel and we have two games against lower seeds.  Win those and we're in 2nd.  The Israel result can switch that.  A draw puts them as slight favourites, a win puts them as clear favourites.

2 minutes ago, realmadrid said:

With regard to the ranking of the 2nd place teams this is how i see it today, the dropping of points for groups F to J and the uneven fixtures in groups A to E don't make it straight forward to look at but we are doing ok.

• Serbia 11 points from 5 games - goal difference 12-7 
• Russia 10 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-4
• Sweden 9 points from 3 games - Goal difference 6-1
• Scotland 8 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-5
• Poland 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 11-6
• Switzerland 7 points from 3 games - goal difference 4-1
• Czech Republic 7 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-7
• Norway 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 4-4
• Armenia 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 5-8
• Ukraine 5 points from 5 games - goal difference 6-6

Really hard to plan it out, but 9 points from 12 (and hopefully a big win against whoever finishes 5th) puts us in a great position.  Just need 4 groups to go worse than ours, and it looks like Ukraine ad Czech Republic might fall into that.  

[Lurkst]

41 minutes ago, realmadrid said:

With regard to the ranking of the 2nd place teams this is how i see it today, the dropping of points for groups F to J and the uneven fixtures in groups A to E don't make it straight forward to look at but we are doing ok.

• Serbia 11 points from 5 games - goal difference 12-7 
• Russia 10 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-4
• Sweden 9 points from 3 games - Goal difference 6-1
• Scotland 8 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-5
• Poland 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 11-6
• Switzerland 7 points from 3 games - goal difference 4-1
• Czech Republic 7 points from 5 games - goal difference 8-7
• Norway 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 4-4
• Armenia 7 points from 4 games - goal difference 5-8
• Ukraine 5 points from 5 games - goal difference 6-6

Should be a bit clearer after the other groups play tonight. 

 

[albagubrath]

2 hours ago, 2426255 said:

What about a draw? what's more realistic? us drawing at home to Israel or us beating Israel? If we draw with Israel and Austria win:

• Scotland - 12
• Israel - 11
• Austria - 10

What's more realistic you ask? What's more realistic is we batter Israel and then lose to Moldova and go into the last game against Denmark needing a win, which we don't get due to a last minute equaliser. 

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

6 hours ago, 2426255 said:

I don't think there is a favorite at this point. I could see plausible scenarios where any of Israel, Austria and Scotland finish 2nd.

There's not really a plausible scenario where Austria get 2nd.  Maximum they can get is 19 points, and that includes a very unlikely win in Copenhagen.  Even if they did manage that, they need scotland and Israel to draw.

[MarkoRaj]

Just noticed Austria pretty much have a play-off already secured from the Nations League. No wonder they look like they can't be arsed

[2426255]

11 hours ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

There's not really a plausible scenario where Austria get 2nd.  Maximum they can get is 19 points, and that includes a very unlikely win in Copenhagen.  Even if they did manage that, they need scotland and Israel to draw.

The plausible scenario would include Scotland dropping points against the 'minnows', shall we look back in time to see how plausible that is?

I think GordonS said that in all the qualifying campaigns since France '98 we have only taken maximum points against the bottom two seeds once.

Edited September 9, 2021 by 2426255

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

1 hour ago, 2426255 said:

The plausible scenario would include Scotland dropping points against the 'minnows', shall we look back in time to see how plausible that is?

I think GordonS said that in all the qualifying campaigns since France '98 we have only taken maximum points against the bottom two seeds once.

No, they need Scotland AND Israel to drop points to minnows, and draw their game unless they win in Denmark.

Possible, yes.  Likely, not at all.

[forameus]

From the two previous campaigns, it looks like 14 points (3 wins from the 4 games, with Moldova results dropped) would probably be enough to be seeded.  Really hard to tell at this stage, but I'd expect if we drop anything outside of Denmark, at the very least being seeded is probably up in smoke, if not 2nd place entirely.

[2426255]

4 hours ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

No, they need Scotland AND Israel to drop points to minnows, and draw their game unless they win in Denmark.

Possible, yes.  Likely, not at all.

This series of results leaves Austria in joint second place along with Israel and wouldn't require Scotland AND Israel to drop points to minnows, and draw their game.

• Israel beat Moldova and the Faroe Islands, Draw with Scotland, Lose to Austria. (+7)
• Scotland win against the Faroe Islands, Draw with Israel and Moldova, Lose to Denmark. (+5)
• Austria win against Israel, Moldova and the Faroe Islands, Draw with Denmark. (+10)

Austria don't control their own destiny, but still have a plausible chance.

Edited September 9, 2021 by 2426255

[realmadrid]

Not that much movement in the 2nd place ranking table after last nights games

Poland drop to 3rd so are replaced by Albania who only have 6 points on the system 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_Second_Round

Still lots can changed (teams in second and those that the big groups drop points against) but we have on this system played 5 games where as most of the teams currently second have played 4.

Getting 6 points next month could put us in a great position as its now likely the Moldova games wont count for this table.

[Lurkst]

1 hour ago, realmadrid said:

Not that much movement in the 2nd place ranking table after last nights games

Poland drop to 3rd so are replaced by Albania who only have 6 points on the system 

https://en.wikipedia.org/wiki/2022_FIFA_World_Cup_qualification_–_UEFA_Second_Round

Still lots can changed (teams in second and those that the big groups drop points against) but we have on this system played 5 games where as most of the teams currently second have played 4.

Getting 6 points next month could put us in a great position as its now likely the Moldova games wont count for this table.

It's a concern that there are five teams within 2 points of us and a game in hand.

As you say 6 points next month is an absolute must if we've to have a chance of being seeded.

 

[Insert Amusing Pseudonym]

2 hours ago, 2426255 said:

This series of results leaves Austria in joint second place along with Israel.

• Israel beat Moldova and the Faroe Islands, Draw with Scotland, Lose to Austria. (+7)
• Scotland win against the Faroe Islands, Draw with Israel and Moldova, Lose to Denmark. (+5)
• Austria win against Israel, Moldova and the Faroe Islands, Draw with Denmark. (+10)

Austria don't control their own destiny, but still have a plausible chance.

Even that extremely unlikely set of results leaves them on the same points as Israel and currently they're 9 goal worse off on gd.  And they'd need to smash Israel if they even equalled the gd, cause their h2h is bad.

[2426255]

21 minutes ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

Even that extremely unlikely set of results leaves them on the same points as Israel and currently they're 9 goal worse off on gd.  And they'd need to smash Israel if they even equalled the gd, cause their h2h is bad.

The swing is 7 goals with a head to head still to come between Austria and Israel. 

You started by saying there isn't a plausible series of results that would leave Austria in 2nd place. It's there, it's not an unrealistic series of events and it doesn't involve Israel dropping points against 'minnows' or Austria winning in Denmark. Is that fair enough? can you see reason?? 

Edited September 9, 2021 by 2426255