Do the OF get more home draws?

[PauloPerth]

16 minutes ago, Scary Bear said:

Raith Rovers haven’t had a home game on Boxing Day since 1994.

There should be an inquiry into that.

We often get sent to some completely random destination at new year, instead of our traditional derby against Dundee when the OF, Edinburgh and Lanarkshire teams would all be playing each other.

[GordonS]

14 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

That's been done for "getting drawn together/apart in SFs".
 

Fairly incredible run from about 1960 to 1990 where they only drew each other 3 times out of almost 50 appearances in Semi-Finals. If you believe the conspiracy theory this came to a halt at about the time draws began to be televised live from late 1980s/early 1990s.


1945-46   VIC       TOGETHER
1945-46   GLC      TOGETHER
1946-47   GLC      APART
1947-48   SCO      APART
1947-48   GLA      APART
1947-48   GLC      APART
1948-49   GLA      APART
1948-49   GLC      APART
1949-50   GLA      TOGETHER
1949-50   GLC      APART
1950-51   GLA      APART
1951-52   LGE      TOGETHER
1952-53   GLC      APART
1953-54   SCO      APART
1953-54   GLA      TOGETHER
1954-55   GLA      APART
1954-55   GLC      TOGETHER
1955-56   GLA      APART
1957-58   LGE       APART
1957-58   GLC      TOGETHER
1958-59   GLC      TOGETHER
1959-60   SCO      TOGETHER
1959-60   GLC      TOGETHER
1961-62   SCO      APART
1961-62   GLA      APART
1962-63   SCO      APART
1963-64   GLA      APART
1964-65   LGE       APART
1965-66   LGE       APART
1965-66   SCO      APART
1966-67   LGE       APART
1968-69   SCO      APART
1968-69   GLA      TOGETHER
1969-70   GLA      APART
1970-71   LGE       APART
1970-71   SCO      APART
1970-71   GLA      APART
1971-72   SCO      APART
1972-73   DRY      APART
1972-73   LGE       APART
1972-73   SCO      APART
1973-74   DRY      APART
1973-74   LGE       TOGETHER
1974-75   DRY      APART
1974-75   GLA      APART
1975-76   LGE       APART
1975-76   GLA      APART
1976-77   LGE       APART
1976-77   SCO      APART
1977-78   LGE       APART
1978-79   LGE       TOGETHER
1978-79   GLA       APART
1979-80   DRY      APART
1979-80   SCO      APART
1979-80   GLA      APART
1980-81   SCO      APART
1980-81   GLA      APART
1981-82   GLA      APART
1982-83   LGE       APART
1982-83   SCO      APART
1982-83   GLA      APART
1983-84   LGE       APART
1984-85   GLA      APART
1985-86   GLA      APART
1986-87   LGE       APART
1986-87   GLA      APART
1987-88   GLA      APART
1988-89   SCO      APART
1989-90   LGE       APART
1990-91   LGE       APART
1991-92   SCO      TOGETHER
1992-93   LGE       APART
1993-94   LGE       TOGETHER
1995-96   SCO      TOGETHER
1997-98   SCO      TOGETHER
1998-99   SCO      APART
2000-01   LGE       TOGETHER
2001-02   LGE       TOGETHER
2001-02   SCO      APART
2002-03   LGE       APART
2008-09   LGE       APART
2010-11   LGE       APART
2014-15   LGE       TOGETHER
2015-16   SCO      TOGETHER
2016-17   LGE       TOGETHER
2016-17   SCO      TOGETHER
2017-18   LGE       APART
2017-18   SCO      TOGETHER
2018-19   LGE       APART
2019-20   LGE       APART

The problem with that is you have to cherrypick your timeframe. You can choose other samples of similar size and the effect goes away.

Put it this way, before that run they were drawn together 10 times in 23 semi-final draws from the post-war resumption. For something with only 0.33 probability of happening that's unlikely. Or you can look at the run of 4 in a row and say that had only a 1 in 81 chance of happening, so it must have been fixed.

When dealing with real events it's normal to have strings of results and patterns. Random doesn't look random. Like iTunes, they had to tweak shuffle mode because people wouldn't believe it was random when they would get 3 or 4 sons in a row from the same album. But the law of big numbers says that's always going to happen.

[Arch Stanton]

During the last 10 seasons (including this one) in the 3 domestic cups, Saints have been drawn at home 23 times, away 19 times.

Nothing out of the ordinary.

Edited August 16, 2021 by Arch Stanton

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

1 hour ago, Scary Bear said:

Raith Rovers haven’t had a home game on Boxing Day since 1994.

Raith Rovers were apparently not awarded a single penalty kick in their Locke/Yogi relegation season. (I'm not sure how many pens Lewis Vaughan won for Dumbarton that spring.) So infeasible stats do occur in other categories.

EPL stats from last term show almost exactly one penalty kick was awarded for every three games played - a 30+% increase on the 5-season average and more than double the 1990s tally in the English top flight. I doubt there was one spot-kick every three games in the Championship five seasons ago, but Raith's penalty-kick-free season is still remarkable.  

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

Silly question. 13 straight swerves in the Glasgow Cup SFs suggests it might have been partly pre-dawn. Maybe previous year's finalists straight to SFs and seeded. Was that ever policy? I've never heard that it was. I assume the other competition listed is the Merchants Cup. I've no idea of the exact format for that either.

[HibeeJibee]

22 minutes ago, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said:

Silly question. 13 straight swerves in the Glasgow Cup SFs suggests it might have been partly pre-dawn. Maybe previous year's finalists straight to SFs and seeded. Was that ever policy? I've never heard that it was. I assume the other competition listed is the Merchants Cup. I've no idea of the exact format for that either.

It wasnt.

EDIT: To clarify - might've been since ceased being first-team tournament in later 1980s but those aren't on list anyway. All on list were open draws.

Edited August 16, 2021 by HibeeJibee

[Arch Stanton]

In the last 30 or so years, St. Mirren and Morton have been kept apart in the Renfrewshire Cup SFs.

The other SF-ists are the finalists of the Victoria Cup which is Renfrewshire's amateur cup competition.

[roverthemoon]

3 hours ago, Empty It said:

Why do you need heated balls when you've got guys like Craigen just looking in and selecting the ball he wanted.

This bugged me yesterday more than it should. Dropped the balls in, looking down at them the whole time and didn’t even swirl them around. Amateurish. 

[scottsdad]

6 hours ago, VictorOnopko said:

Didn't Rangers get something like 12+ home cup draws in a row a while ago?  The odds against that happening were... high. 

The odds of Rangers getting HHHHHHHHHHHH for 12  ties isn't actually that high. Like flipping a coin 12 times, the chances of getting 12 Heads in a row is the same as getting 12 Tails in a row. Also the same odds as alternating them. Or any combination you like. 

A run like this is unusual but not unprecedented. Try flipping a coin 100 times - you'll find you get something close to 50/50 Heads/Tails. But within that run of 100 flips, you'll find runs of Heads and runs of Tails. Assuming that the draws are decided in a similar fashion (say, through an electronic coin toss) the same thing will occur. 

Let me put it this way. After 12 consecutive home games, the chances of Rangers making it to 13 home games in a row was 50/50.

[HibeeJibee]

58 minutes ago, roverthemoon said:

This bugged me yesterday more than it should. Dropped the balls in, looking down at them the whole time and didn’t even swirl them around. Amateurish. 

During the Scottish Cup draw last week there was a point where chap drew out 30, 31, 32, 34 or similar.

Probably not just chance... perhaps more likely those balls had gone in beside each other and not been adequately mixed-up.

Giving the heap a swirl doesn't do very much unless you also churn them as they can just move around in a clump.

Loading randomly, vertically (1, 11, 21, etc.), or diagonally (1, 12, 23, etc.), might also help.

[TxRover]

Perhaps looking at how often the OF draw each other, when possible, versus not would be interesting. It is, of course, generally going to be more likely they don’t draw each other, but at some point the avoidance would become pretty evident. One of the earlier posts looked at this somewhat obliquely.

[The Mantis]

2 hours ago, FortescueFotheringhamSmyth said:

13 straight swerves in the Glasgow Cup SFs suggests it might have been partly pre-dawn. 

Maybe they should do it like this every time.

[craigkillie]

If it's conspiracy theories you're after, then step into my office.
 
St Johnstone's league and Scottish Cup draws over the past 10 seasons (including this one) are as follows;
Home 13   Away 25. (34% home, 66% away).
 
* Obviously ignoring League Cup group stage, cup replays and the many cup semi finals and finals. Managed to leave out Cup semi finals in 'neutral' Glasgow against OF or in Edinburgh against an Edinburgh team. Also ignored the many European cup ties we've been involved in, which worked out 50-50 anyway funnily enough.
 
Then you look at opening league fixtures each season. Over the past 11 seasons we have had 2 at home and 9 away. (18% home, 82% away).  
 
The authorities have tried hard to hold back the rise of St Johnstone, and yet still we are the country's second most successful team over this period.  It does make you wonder what would have been possible for us if it was a level playing field.

The odds of any team who haven't won a title (either Premiership or Championship) in the previous season getting a home game on the opening day is often much less than 50%, since the opening day is flag day.

This season it was 50% due to city clashes with Rangers/Celtic and Hearts/Hibs, but that isn't usually the case. In fact, in the seasons where Rangers were in the lower leagues it would only have been a 33.3% chance each season.

There are also loads of complications with Europe at the start of the season which severely limits the possible fixtures in August. European matches happen every midweek, and any team playing on a Thursday has to play the following Sunday, while teams playing on Tuesdays has to play the previous Saturday. What that basically boils down to is that a team in the CL can't play a team in the EL or ECL during August, since there might not be a suitable date for the game.

That's all before you consider that there is no actual requirement for the opening fixtures to be random anyway. I'd say they pretty clearly aren't.

[FortescueFotheringhamSmyth]

56 minutes ago, The Mantis said:

Maybe they should do it like this every time.

Massn-bassn-rassn-frassn spellchecker. 

There is one thing that should befall some folk at the Scottish football authorities that is  traditionally carried out at dawn.

[The Mantis]

1 hour ago, craigkillie said:

The odds of any team who haven't won a title (either Premiership or Championship) in the previous season getting a home game on the opening day is often much less than 50%, since the opening day is flag day.
 

I remember ICT not getting a flag day when we were promoted in 2004 and Thistle were disputing their relegation. We obviously got Thistle’s fixtures. Away to Livi on the opening day, and a “derby” with Killie at New Year.

[PauloPerth]

3 hours ago, craigkillie said:

The odds of any team who haven't won a title (either Premiership or Championship) in the previous season getting a home game on the opening day is often much less than 50%, since the opening day is flag day.

This season it was 50% due to city clashes with Rangers/Celtic and Hearts/Hibs, but that isn't usually the case. In fact, in the seasons where Rangers were in the lower leagues it would only have been a 33.3% chance each season.

There are also loads of complications with Europe at the start of the season which severely limits the possible fixtures in August. European matches happen every midweek, and any team playing on a Thursday has to play the following Sunday, while teams playing on Tuesdays has to play the previous Saturday. What that basically boils down to is that a team in the CL can't play a team in the EL or ECL during August, since there might not be a suitable date for the game.

That's all before you consider that there is no actual requirement for the opening fixtures to be random anyway. I'd say they pretty clearly aren't.

Okay I get the less than 50% thing. But twice at home in 11 years?!   18% at home on opening day!!

Back to back season openers at rugby park in amongst that lot as well.

[TheScarf]

16 hours ago, HibeeJibee said:

During the Scottish Cup draw last week there was a point where chap drew out 30, 31, 32, 34 or similar.

Probably not just chance... perhaps more likely those balls had gone in beside each other and not been adequately mixed-up.

Giving the heap a swirl doesn't do very much unless you also churn them as they can just move around in a clump.

Loading randomly, vertically (1, 11, 21, etc.), or diagonally (1, 12, 23, etc.), might also help.

That's happened a few times in the last couple of years.  The person 'mixing' them is just swirling them around in the same order they've been dropped in.

Edited August 17, 2021 by TheScarf