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Can’t be many people who thought Ayr would win the group after they lose on pens to Albion Rovers 11 days ago. If they’re awarded a 3-0 win vs Falkirk then they’re through.

Accies will probably need a strong victory against Albion on Saturday to qualify as one of the second place teams.

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1 hour ago, mugen_power said:

I thought in recent years, Ayr played on Wednesday nights as part-timers due to the fact that was a normal training night so guys didn't have to change their schedules?

Probably depends on each club's circumstances and preferences.

Club trains Mon+Wed... plays Wed... no training session ahead of Saturday game.

Clubs trains Tue+Thu... plays Tue... no training session ahead of Tuesday game.

As noted on "Photographic History" thread Monday was once common for midweek games until 1970s.

Edited by HibeeJibee
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I wish people would tag the club names into the group threads, like @Lex did for group H. It's a pain in the arse having to google them every time you're interested in one of them, there's no way I'm going to bother memorising them all for what has turned into a glorified set of pre-season friendlies.

Edited by welshbairn
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Update 7:45pm - I've been out and come back to find Falkirk have dingied their game v Edinburgh and there is significant doubt over their game against Ayr on Saturday now. This removes Falkirk from the equation for qualification and makes it likely Ayr will win the group with 10 pts (either awarded Saturday's win v Falkirk who are already out, or facing a weakened side with much of the squad in isolation).

Group A
Hearts are through with a game to spare. Runner up can't get more than 8 points and that only if Stirling Albion beat Peterhead in 90 mins. Anything less and runner up will be 7 points at best and could conceivably be 6pts. Runners up not getting through here.

Group B
Dundee United have already won with a full house. Winners of Arbroath v Kelty will get 9 and likely go through as a best runner up but it's not certain. If it's a draw then whoever wins the penalty shoot out will finish with 8 pts.

Group C
Disrupted by Covid and the fact there are two games tomorrow but Dundee winning the group by beating Forfar seems likely. If they only do so on penalties they'd need something from Montrose too. Forfar likely to finish runner up on 8 but they could nick something of Dundee and get 9 or 10. Indeed it's possible with a Dundee win over Montrose that a draw in the final game would take both them and Forfar through. Certainly would if Forfar win on penalties. Also an unlikely scenario where Montrose beat both Dundee and Ross County to get 10 points and go through.

Group D
Two Livi wins over Raith and Cowdenbeath, combined with a Raith win over Alloa will see both Raith and Livi on 9 points. Or less likely Cowden beating Livi in 90 mins alongside a Raith win over Alloa would leave two sides on 9 too. It's reasonably open this one but quite conceivable that two sides will finish with 9. Will be slightly clearer after the Livi v Raith game tomorrow.

Group E
Another one that's all over the place but an Ayr win over Falkirk, or a Falkirk win over Ayr after beating Edinburgh City tomorrow, combined with Accies beating Albion Rovers will leave two teams on 9 or more.
Falkirk's Covid forfeit means Ayr will probably win the group and Accies need a decent win over Albion Rovers to stand a chance of going through as a best runner up with a good goal difference.

Group F
Motherwell destined to win the group. Queens Park are likely runners up having finished on 7. We can't beat that. Airdrie could but would need at least 4 points from games against us and Motherwell which is a reach. Nobody's getting through this one as runner up.

Group G
Bonkers group with Killie and Morton both awarded losses without playing. Every chance Kilmarnock win the group by beating Stranraer, although Clyde could still beat them too by beating Morton. Runner up can't get more than 8 so no runner up coming from this one either.

Group H
Not inconceivable three sides could finish with 9 here if Thistle were to beat St Mirren. In all likelihood though St Mirren get something off Thistle to win the group and Dunfermline get a win over Stenhousemuir to progress too.

So basically, groups A, F & G are definitely not providing a runner up. Likely group H will produce a runner up with 9 points and a very good goal difference. Barring a shock there, then two of Groups B, D and E will likely produce a 9 point runner up. If all three do then one of them will go out on goal difference, with potentially Accies worst placed. If two of these groups slip up then Group C could still produce an unlikely 9 point runner up too.

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2 hours ago, welshbairn said:

I wish people would tag the club names into the group threads, like @Lex did for group H. It's a pain in the arse having to google them every time you're interested in one of them, there's no way I'm going to bother memorising them all for what has turned into a glorified set of pre-season friendlies.

Duly noted and amended

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It looks like there are now four real contenders for the 3 seeded places n the next round: Hearts, Dundee United, Dundee and St Mirren. 
 

dundee United are home and dry as far as progressing is concerned but their goal difference is only +8 (9 for 1 against) so the other three could catch them

Dundee are already on +9 so a win against Forfar at Dens of any description will see them seeded

Hearts are on +7 but, if I’m right, they’ll finish behind Dundee United on goalie scored if they only beat Inverness 1-0, 2-1 would need some further tie breaker 

A 2-0 win at home to Patrick would see St Mirren level with Dundee United, 3-1 would see them safe

Of course given that these clubs aren’t complete strangers to captain cock up we can’t totally rule out the possibility of someone else slipping in

I’ve checked and apparently away goals are the tie breaker after goal difference and goals scored 

Dundee United scored only 2 away from home 

so actually Hearts need any win apart from1-0 and Saint Mirren needs two goal margin 

Edited by topcat(The most tip top)
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5 hours ago, mugen_power said:

I thought in recent years, Ayr played on Wednesday nights as part-timers due to the fact that was a normal training night so guys didn't have to change their schedules?

I think Ayr traditionally play midweek games on a Wednesday as well, we had a midweek game there around 2009 and wanted to play on the Tuesday, but Ayr said that they played on Wednesdays and as it was their home game Ayr got to choose the day.

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Posted (edited)

Update close of play on Wednesday - Upsets again now make it likely the BBC were accidentally correct about Abroath v Kelty. Falkirk concede their game at Edinburgh and, with it, their chance of progressing probably. Motherwell sell the shirts in Airdrie, opening our group up, Livingston couldn't beat Raith in open play which cost them a point. Position now:

Group A
Hearts are through with a game to spare. Runner up can't get more than 8 points and that only if Stirling Albion beat Peterhead in 90 mins. Anything less and runner up will be 7 points at best and could conceivably be 6pts. Runners up not getting through here.

Group B
Dundee United have already won with a full house. Winners of Arbroath v Kelty will get 9 and likely go through as a best runner up but it's not certain. If it's a draw then whoever wins the penalty shoot out will finish with 8 pts.

Group C
With 9 points and a +9 GD already Dundee can field their reserves and still go through on Saturday. A best runners up slot is inevitable at worst. A point will win the group. If they feel like letting Forfar have a point then even a penalty loss for the Loons might be enough with 9 pts and a +4GD. They aren't getting through with a loss though. If they do go through on GD thanks to being awarded a 3-0 at Ross County I imagine someone won't be happy!

Group D
Raith need a win over Alloa to win the group despite losing on penalties tonight. Livingston are probably now out as the best they can do is get 8 pts. Cowdenbeath could actually get through with 9 if they contrive to beat Livingston outright.

Group E
Ayr will win their group with either an awarded win v Falkirk or a win over a shadow side. Hamilton will now likely go through with any win over Albion Rovers to get 9 pts.

Group F
Up in the air a bit now and theoretically Queens Park could win it but that would require Airdrie to lose and Motherwell to at least lose on penalties. In reality Airdrie win the group if they can beat QoS. Motherwell do assuming they beat Annan and Airdrie drop even one point. I suppose conceivably Motherwell could win it by hammering Annan at home while Airdrie won narrowly at Palmerston. I don't think head to head is a dividing factor is it? If Airdrie and Motherwell both win then both will get 9 points but any other combination will rule out runner up here.

Group G
Every chance Kilmarnock win the group by beating Stranraer, although Clyde could still beat them too by beating Morton. Runner up can't get more than 8 so no runner up coming from this one either.

Group H
Not inconceivable three sides could finish with 9 here if Thistle were to beat St Mirren. In all likelihood though St Mirren get something off Thistle to win the group and Dunfermline get a win over Stenhousemuir to progress too.

 

Group Winners:
Confirmed - Hearts, Dundee United
Likely - Dundee, Raith Rovers, Ayr United, Motherwell (unless Airdrie win at Palmerston), Kilmarnock (unless Clyde win at Morton), St Mirren

Runners Up:
Likely Dunfermline will get 9 and a GD of at least +6
Fair chance Hamilton will get 9 and a GD of at least +2,
Winner of Kelty v Arbroath gets 9. If it's Kelty they'd have a GD of at least +5, Arbroath at least +3
Potentially Airdrie or Motherwell on 9 if Airdrie can win at Palmerston. It would need Motherwell (currently 0) to clock up a few goals though.
Outside chance of Forfar if they can get something from Dundee, but their GD if they do will be at least +4
Outside chance of Cowdenbeath if they beat Livingston. If they do GD will be at least +2

In reality it seems unlikely groups A, D or G will provide a runner up as Cowden win over Livi apart they can't provide a runner up with more than 8.

Three group winners for seeding will come from Dundee United, Dundee, Hearts and St Mirren unless at least two of the last three lose their last games outright. If all three win it will come down to GD. United are done on +8. Dundee are guaranteed better than that if they win at all. Hearts are guaranteed at least that but would have to score at least 2 to match United. St Mirren are currently +6 so would need a 2 goal win to match United. Lord knows what happens if Hearts win 2-1 or St Mirren 2-0. Draw lots I guess.

Edited by Skyline Drifter
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If we go through it will be unseeded so I guess winning the group is as irrelevant for us as it is unlikely.

New German owners probably wouldn’t object to a TV home game against Celtic or Rangers though.

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14 minutes ago, qpsnapper said:

I think Ayr traditionally play midweek games on a Wednesday as well, we had a midweek game there around 2009 and wanted to play on the Tuesday, but Ayr said that they played on Wednesdays and as it was their home game Ayr got to choose the day.

In 2009 maybe, they played a midweek home game by choice last Tuesday.

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1 hour ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Lord knows what happens if Hearts win 2-1 or St Mirren 2-0. Draw lots I guess.

I assume they’ll use the same separators as in the groups and in determining the best runners-up; in order after goals scored: away goals scored, matches won (irrelevant), away matches won, drawing of lots. 

If Hearts win 2-1 and St Mirren win 2-0, Hearts and St Mirren would be seeded having scored more away goals (4 and 6 respectively) than Dundee Utd (2). 

 

Edited by The Master
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26 minutes ago, The Master said:

If Hearts win 2-1 and St Mirren win 2-0, Hearts and St Mirren would be seeded having scored more away goals (4 and 6 respectively) than Dundee Utd (2).

It would still leave 3 - enough to beat 2 - but St Mirren got 3 of those 6 by default. Surely they don't count forfeit goals as actual away goals when acting as a separator between groups?

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Looking likely that for us to go through we need to skelp at least 2 or 3 past Cowdenbeath and

1. Kelty v Arbroath draw
2. Forfar to lose v Dundee
3. Albion Rovers to avoid defeat against Hamilton/Ayr to lose to COVID depleted Falkirk
4. Motherwell and Annan draw/Queen of the South v Airdrie draw or one of Airdrie/Motherwell losing 
5. Dunfermline v Stenhousemuir draw and Partick v St Mirren draw

We're allowed 2 of the 5 to fail I think? With us beating Cowdenbeath the actually important one

Edited by ATLIS
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4 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

It would still leave 3 - enough to beat 2 - but St Mirren got 3 of those 6 by default. Surely they don't count forfeit goals as actual away goals when acting as a separator between groups?

I don't see what else they could do. They've declared that the result. Therein lies the issue with all these forfeits. Equally Forfar could effectively be put through by a default win at Ross County if they can park a bus against Dundee for 90 mins.

As someone pointed out earlier in the week, prior to Thistle only beating Dumbarton 2-0, there was a possibility that Thistle, Dunfermline and St Mirren all ended up on 9 points and that St Mirren ended up eliminated because they were awarded a 3-0 win against Dumbarton whilst the other two played weakened Dumbarton sides and won by higher scores. In fact they may still end up eliminated on GD because of that, though if it does happen now it won't directly be because the other two got more against Dumbarton by playing (since Thistle didn't).

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9 hours ago, honestly united said:

to me Wednesday is still the proper mid week night (as it is the middle of the week) and still cant get my head around games being on a Tuesday. 

I used to think along those lines too, but whilst Wednesday is the middle of the working week, ie Monday to Friday, Tuesday night is actually closer to the middle of the footballing week.

5pm Saturday to 7.30pm Tuesday is 74.5 hours.

9.30pm Tuesday to 3pm Saturday is 89.5 hours.

Change the Tuesday to Wednesday and that becomes 98.5 and 65.5 hours.

The exact middle of a footballing week with Saturday 3pm kickoffs would be 3am on a Wednesday, so Tuesday night games do make sense.

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1 minute ago, DG.Roma said:

I used to think along those lines too, but whilst Wednesday is the middle of the working week, ie Monday to Friday, Tuesday night is actually closer to the middle of the footballing week.

5pm Saturday to 7.30pm Tuesday is 74.5 hours.

9.30pm Tuesday to 3pm Saturday is 89.5 hours.

Change the Tuesday to Wednesday and that becomes 98.5 and 65.5 hours.

The exact middle of a footballing week with Saturday 3pm kickoffs would be 3am on a Wednesday, so Tuesday night games do make sense.

Then again Monday is part of a footballing "weekend" (e.g. EPL 'Monday Night Football' is drawn from weekend card).

Wednesday is middle of a footballing "midweek" (e.g. UEFA competitions = Tue-Wed-Thu).

Until recently internationals were always Wednesdays, too.

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1 hour ago, Skyline Drifter said:

Group D

 

Raith need a win over Alloa to win the group despite losing on penalties tonight. Livingston are probably now out as the best they can do is get 8 pts. Cowdenbeath could actually get through with 9 if they contrive to beat Livingston outright.

They can still win the group if they beat Cowdenbeath and Raith lose away to Alloa, which isn't inconceivable.

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