Illusory Superiority on P&B

[Hedgecutter]

Anybody frequenting the GN Forum will have noticed the presence of certain individuals who consistently appear to know everything better than most, regardless of the subject being discussed.  For me the Coronavirus thread is a fine example of the 'Dunning-Kruger Effect' (image below for those unaware of what I mean) / 'better-than-average effect' in action.  Throw some posters some stats from the news and... well, you know the rest. 

So how prevalent is it on here?  Are most posters guilty of it?  What are the finest examples of posters walking into their own graves you remember seeing?  

Finally, out of curiosity, I've added an anonymous poll to ask a single (perhaps over-generalised) question, just to see if the majority of posters deem themselves to be better than average, which I'm led to believe is usually the case in wider society.  I've purposely avoided a middle-of-the-road cop-out answer (and chances are you wouldn't be bang on average anyway).

 

 

In the field of social psychology, illusory superiority is a condition of cognitive bias wherein a person overestimates their own qualities and abilities, in relation to the same qualities and abilities of other people.

Edited July 14, 2021 by Hedgecutter

[paranoid android]

I don't understand the question. 

[ICTChris]

[SANTAN]

This is me. 

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Anybody frequenting the GN Forum will have noticed the presence of certain individuals who consistently appear to know everything better than most, regardless of the subject being discussed.  For me the Coronavirus thread is a fine example of the 'Dunning-Kruger Effect' (image below for those unaware of what I mean) / 'better-than-average effect' in action.  Throw some posters some stats from the news and... well, you know the rest. 
So how prevalent is it on here?  Are most posters guilty of it?  What are the finest examples of posters walking into their own graves you remember seeing?  
Finally, out of curiosity, I've added an anonymous poll to ask a single (perhaps over-generalised) question, just to see if the majority of posters deem themselves to be better than average, which I'm led to believe is usually the case in wider society.  I've purposely avoided a middle-of-the-road cop-out answer (and chances are you wouldn't be bang on average anyway).
 
 

In the field of social psychology, illusory superiority is a condition of cognitive bias wherein a person overestimates their own qualities and abilities, in relation to the same qualities and abilities of other people.

H_B and his Anthony C Pick evidence surely has to be up there.

VT absolutely rag-dolled him over that.

On here via Tapatalk so I can't t see the poll - I'd place myself at the right hand part of that curve.

[superbigal]

My worry is your Vote.

As a Statistician for the answer to be a "True Reflection" then the results should end up as 50% above Average & 50% below average.

I fear if you come out with some other result then the Stats for Granny Dangers Covid prediction and the Celtic crowd in Seville would have more  credence.

Either that or your survey will have a load of intelligent liars (I think ?)

 

Edited July 14, 2021 by superbigal

[Hedgecutter]

1 minute ago, superbigal said:

My worry is your Vote.

As a Statistician for the answer to be a "True Reflection" then the results should end up as 50% above Average & 50% below average.

I fear if you come out with some other result then the Stats for Granny Dangers Covid prediction and the Celtic crowd in Seville would have more  credence.

Either that or your survey will have a load of intelligent liars.

 

Is this not the point though - to see how much it deviates away from 50/50, and in which direction?

[SANTAN]

I'm just looking forward to when @GordonS and @virginton bump into each other in this thread. 

[GordonS]

Where on the scale is "I don't know anything about this, but I can tell that you don't either"?

[Dunning1874]

Leave me the f**k out of this thread please.

[Mark Connolly]

A really clever poster would have waited until Sunday to get this thread on the go.

[coprolite]

30 minutes ago, superbigal said:

My worry is your Vote.

As a Statistician for the answer to be a "True Reflection" then the results should end up as 50% above Average & 50% below average.

I fear if you come out with some other result then the Stats for Granny Dangers Covid prediction and the Celtic crowd in Seville would have more  credence.

Either that or your survey will have a load of intelligent liars (I think ?)

 

Surely it's only 50/50 if you're using a median as your average? Or if there's a normal distribution. A long tail in either direction could pull the mean either side of that. 

@Hedgecutter@Hedgecutter,  is this the sort of thing you mean? 

[Hedgecutter]

1 minute ago, coprolite said:

Surely it's only 50/50 if you're using a median as your average? Or if there's a normal distribution. A long tail in either direction could pull the mean either side of that. 

@Hedgecutter@Hedgecutter,  is this the sort of thing you mean? 

Ach, I suspected I'd regret the use of the word 'average'. 

The intention was:  "do you consider yourself to be more / less intelligent than most of the posters on here".  

[welshbairn]

I was thinking of clicking on "above" until I read the statisticians' posts..

[NotThePars]

Lot of nerd talk threatening to derail the thread so here’s some shots fired: there’s a coterie of posters, all definitely above 45 and balding, who’ve never read a book on the topics they pontificate about and are best described as “shooting from the hip” and “calling it like they see it” [emoji106]

[DeeTillEhDeh]

Lot of nerd talk threatening to derail the thread so here’s some shots fired: there’s a coterie of posters, all definitely above 45 and balding, who’ve never read a book on the topics they pontificate about and are best described as “shooting from the hip” and “calling it like they see it” [emoji106]

Is that aimed at GD?

[Marshmallo]

Can't vote as I consider myself Bang Average in terms of intelligence. I'm Above Average in humour. Below Average in getting ass.

[coprolite]

23 minutes ago, Hedgecutter said:

Ach, I suspected I'd regret the use of the word 'average'. 

The intention was:  "do you consider yourself to be more / less intelligent than most of the posters on here".  

Thinking intelligently about abstract concepts, yes. 

Doing intelligent things, no.

Emotional intelligence, don't understand the question. 

[tamthebam]

How I see myself: 

How the rest of Pie and Bovril sees me: 

[ICTChris]

Me, debating with the P&B midwits