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31 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Ok, could somebody much smarter than me perform a calculation which gives a % chance of any two of the required things happening please?

If they could then factor in the chance of us beating Croatia to produce a new figure, then that would be great.

Probably pointless too, given the scale of variables, but it would interest me.

 

Thank you.

I think the chances of none of those things happening is 8.7%.

I don't know how to work out the chances of only one of those things happening, but excluding the one that's most likely not to happen, the Russia & Finland double, the chances of none of them happening is 10.4%.

I think.

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44 minutes ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Ok, could somebody much smarter than me perform a calculation which gives a % chance of any two of the required things happening please?

If they could then factor in the chance of us beating Croatia to produce a new figure, then that would be great.

Probably pointless too, given the scale of variables, but it would interest me.

 

Thank you.

https://www.google.co.uk/amp/s/www.bbc.com/sport/football/57537815.amp

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It would take an outrageous set of results to for them not to be one of the four best, but Sweden can still drop to third if Poland beat them so they aren't confirmed as through yet, although they may well be by the time the game is played. They'll also get a much easier last 16 tie by finishing first or second rather than third, so while Poland might beat them I don't see Sweden being complacent about it.
Sweden would be happy with a draw you would think

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27 minutes ago, GordonS said:

I think the chances of none of those things happening is 8.7%.

I don't know how to work out the chances of only one of those things happening, but excluding the one that's most likely not to happen, the Russia & Finland double, the chances of none of them happening is 10.4%.

I think.

Thanks.  I'm impressed.

If such figures were plucked from the air, I'd have no way of knowing and still be perfectly happy with them.

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20 minutes ago, Left Back said:

Yes, I saw that yesterday morning, but was treating it more as a crude appraisal of our chances of beating Croatia and finishing 3rd.

I wonder if it's been modified slightly since, to factor in yesterday's results, which would surely have required a small tweak.

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So, for those like me who are ridiculously incompetent at understanding anything even remotely mathematical.... 

The results we want from today's 2 games are... (Insert answer)

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1 minute ago, The Other Foot said:

So, for those like me who are ridiculously incompetent at understanding anything even remotely mathematical.... 

The results we want from today's 2 games are... (Insert answer)

Ideally Switzerland to not win, but if they do, by no more than 1.

Italy to knock 4 past Wales, but if the Swiss fail to win it’s redundant.

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3 minutes ago, The Other Foot said:

So, for those like me who are ridiculously incompetent at understanding anything even remotely mathematical.... 

The results we want from today's 2 games are... (Insert answer)

Switzerland to lose, draw or win by only one goal

Or

Italy to beat Wales by four goals or more.

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So, for those like me who are ridiculously incompetent at understanding anything even remotely mathematical.... 
The results we want from today's 2 games are... (Insert answer)
Turkey to get at least a draw, or Switzerland to only win by 1. Or, much more extreme, Switzerland win by 2 AND Italy beat Wales by at least 4.

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Loads of ifs, buts and optimism. If another country was presenting these scenarios I think we'd be telling them it's a long shot.

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1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Ok, could somebody much smarter than me perform a calculation which gives a % chance of any two of the required things happening please?

If they could then factor in the chance of us beating Croatia to produce a new figure, then that would be great.

Probably pointless too, given the scale of variables, but it would interest me.

Thank you.

I'm not smart, but taking the 4 most likely scenarios there: 37% x 49% x 40% x 64% = 4.6% chance of 4 points and -1 GD not being enough. Obviously the actual chances will be a bit different to that, given the other permutations and the possibility of Group B going wrong.

If Switzerland get what they need today, and Group B becomes irrelevant, the implied chance becomes 12.5%. If they don't, and Group B is needed, it's 1.8%.

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1 hour ago, Monkey Tennis said:

Ok, could somebody much smarter than me perform a calculation which gives a % chance of any two of the required things happening please?

If they could then factor in the chance of us beating Croatia to produce a new figure, then that would be great.

Probably pointless too, given the scale of variables, but it would interest me.

 

Thank you.

It's not a scientific analysis, but.... get the umbrellas out, it's time to rain on the parade.  Bet365 have these odds.... 

Scotland to qualify....  Yes 2/1, No 4/11

I confess that I thought our chances were better than that.  It might well be heavily influenced by the Scotland/ Croatia match odds which at the moment are - 

Croatia  win 11/8, Draw 13/5, Scotland win 15/8.

I hope the bookies take a hammering. 

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3 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Loads of ifs, buts and optimism. If another country was presenting these scenarios I think we'd be telling them it's a long shot.

There are things here that are more likely than others, but if Scotland win then it's much more unlikely we don't qualify than do.  And that's assuming a vanilla 1 nil - anything more and it would be extremely hard not to qualify.

I mean it is Scotland, so experience keeps you on the ground but you're looking at very decent odds not to qualify with a win.  Which of course is the only thing we can control ourselves, and I'm not overly confident we'll manage it

 

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8 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Loads of ifs, buts and optimism. If another country was presenting these scenarios I think we'd be telling them it's a long shot.

By far the most likely reason that we don’t qualify is by failing to beat Croatia.

 

There is every chance we don’t win on Tuesday, but if we do then it’s highly likely the other results needed will fall into place. A lot has to go wrong for us to fail to qualify with 4 points 

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1 minute ago, Salt n Vinegar said:

It's not a scientific analysis, but.... get the umbrellas out, it's time to rain on the parade.  Bet365 have these odds.... 

Scotland to qualify....  Yes 2/1, No 4/11

I confess that I thought our chances were better than that.  It might well be heavily influenced by the Scotland/ Croatia match odds which at the moment are - 

Croatia  win 11/8, Draw 13/5, Scotland win 15/8.

I hope the bookies take a hammering. 

Seems exactly right to me.  Our chance of getting the win and not qualifying is tiny really, reflected in those odds

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No if you've watched Switzerland play tbh


Can't really just judge them off the last two games. They didn't appear to have any issues scoring pre Euros. If they both start chucking players forward then goals are surely inevitable.

If the Swiss win big Austria will then have an incentive to beat Ukraine so we do have that safety net.
There's also the scenario that a 5 goal swing pushes Wales into third place in the group, again meaning Austria might not want to settle for a point. 


Not sure what'll happen in that game tbh. They're not going to spend the entire 90 minutes passing the ball back and forth. The draw aspect may only come into the equation in the second half.
The worst result could be 2-0 Switzerland. We might have to get 2 goals but Austria can still take the draw in that scenario. A lot still up in the air anyway.

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20 minutes ago, Insert Amusing Pseudonym said:

Seems exactly right to me.  Our chance of getting the win and not qualifying is tiny really, reflected in those odds

In my day we used to say "we only need a draw".

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26 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Loads of ifs, buts and optimism. If another country was presenting these scenarios I think we'd be telling them it's a long shot.

You're right that it's a long shot that the  unlikely scenarios being discussed happen. Thankfully we don't want them to.

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Would put my mortgage on Austria and Ukraine serving a carve up. Most guaranteed 0-0 your likely to see since the Germany Austria game.

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36 minutes ago, Sergeant Wilson said:

Loads of ifs, buts and optimism. If another country was presenting these scenarios I think we'd be telling them it's a long shot.

It’s not a long shot. It’s quite literally the reality for what 8 countries will be considering right now.

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