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The only way 3rd place can get four points in that group now is if Poland beat Sweden. That's not a massive stretch obviously but had Spain won tonight then them drawing with Slovakia would have guaranteed Slovakia finishing 3rd with 4, and I wouldn't bet against that result with how Spain have been playing.

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If Switzerland get the 2 goal win tomorrow I'll genuinely start fearing the worst. 

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3 minutes ago, Dunning1874 said:

The only way 3rd place can get four points in that group now is if Poland beat Sweden. That's not a massive stretch obviously but had Spain won tonight then them drawing with Slovakia would have guaranteed Slovakia finishing 3rd with 4, and I wouldn't bet against that result with how Spain have been playing.

Fact is both E + F who finish after us now have plausible scenarios where 3rd finishes on 4pts and 0/positive GD.

If we win (but not comfortably)... and don't want our nerves shredded over subsequent 24hrs... then 2 of A-C coming good would be most welcome...

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Interestingly enough they have Spain heavy favourites in third place to go through, with Poland and Slovakia both going out.

Our odds have shortened.

The main rivals appear to be Switzerland. Let's hope Turkey finally show up to this tournament.Screenshot_20210619-220609_bet365.jpegScreenshot_20210619-220627_bet365.jpegScreenshot_20210619-220620_bet365.jpeg

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Just now, djchapsticks said:

So we're fingers crossed tomorrow for Turkey to win or draw?

Switzerland 1-goal win is fine. If they get a 2-goal win then it's starting to look like everything's going against us.

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2 minutes ago, HibeeJibee said:

Fact is both E + F who finish after us now have plausible scenarios where 3rd finishes on 4pts and 0/positive GD.

If we win (but not comfortably)... and don't want our nerves shredded over subsequent 24hrs... then 2 of A-C coming good would be most welcome...

Yeah, you definitely want it all settled before we play without having to wait on other results.

Scenes if Switzerland pull off the two goal win but Italy smash four past Wales.

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Just now, DC92 said:

Switzerland 1-goal win is fine. If they get a 2-goal win then it's starting to look like everything's going against us.

Cheers. Hopefully Turkey finally get the finger out their arse.

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Yes. The results we wanted today were wins for France, Portugal, and Spain. 
Group E could still only have 2 qualifiers.

* Sweden win/draw, Spain-Slovakia draw - likely just 2 qualifiers

Sweden 7pts (5pts)
Slovakia 4pts
Spain 3pt
Poland 1pt (2pts)

* Sweden win/draw, Spain win - likely just 2 qualifiers

Sweden 7pts (5pts)
Spain 5pts
Slovakia 3pts
Poland 1pt (2pts)

* Sweden win/draw, Slovakia win - 2 qualifiers

Sweden 7pts (5pts)
Slovakia 6pts
Spain 2pts
Poland 1pt (2pts)

* Poland win, Spain-Slovakia draw - possibly 3 qualifiers

Sweden 4pts
Slovakia 4pts
Poland 4pts
Spain 3pts

* Poland win, Spain win - possibly 3 qualifiers

Spain 5pts
Sweden 4pts
Poland 4pts
Slovakia 1pt

* Poland win, Slovakia win - possibly 3 qualifiers

Slovakia 6pts
Sweden 4pts
Poland 4pts
Spain 2pts

Basically we need Sweden to win or draw against Poland.

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Yeah, you definitely want it all settled before we play without having to wait on other results.
Scenes if Switzerland pull off the two goal win but Italy smash four past Wales.
Exactly what I was thinking. Couple of the Welsh players on tv seemed a bit too relaxed.

Italy will probably play their reserves but you'll have guys gagging to make an impression. They also might want to give Immobile a decent shot at the golden boot.

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1 minute ago, sergie's no1 fan said:

Exactly what I was thinking. Couple of the Welsh players on tv seemed a bit too relaxed.

Italy will probably play their reserves but you'll have guys gagging to make an impression. They also might want to give Immobile a decent shot at the golden boot.

Yeah, no chance Italy are going baws oot tomorrow. They simply don't have to and will keep as many players fresh as possible forcthev 2nd round.

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If Switzerland do win by 2 it just means we also need to win by 2 to finish ahead of them.

If we win by 3 we take group C out of the equation and as well as the Swiss needing to win by 4, Finland would need to beat Belgium AND Russia would need to beat Denmark.

 

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The Welsh seem to assume they'll be no worse than 2nd and the Italy match is a free hit, and they're probably right but it's not beyond the realms of possibility that it could all go pear shaped for them. 

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So we need any 2 of the following situations to play out:

 

1. Switzerland fail to beat Turkey by at least 2 goals

2. Either Russia or Finland lose

3. Austria v Ukraine is NOT a draw

4. Poland fail to beat Sweden

5. France beat Portugal 

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If Portugal avoid defeat against France there is the very small straw to clutch at of Hungary beating Germany by exactly one goal which would leave them on 4 points and a -2 GD.

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17 minutes ago, Donathan said:

So we need any 2 of the following situations to play out:

 

1. Switzerland fail to beat Turkey by at least 2 goals

2. Either Russia or Finland lose

3. Austria v Ukraine is NOT a draw

4. Poland fail to beat Sweden

5. France beat Portugal 

1. Correct

2. Correct

3. Correct. I look forward to the BBC reporting live from an APC inside the warzone should one of them decide to f**k it though.

4. Correct

5. Correct

Edited by Boo Khaki

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I think 2. is the banker because I can't see Finland taking anything from even  a half-arsed Belgium, and I also think Denmark will fight for their lives v Russia.

1 & 4 the next most likely to give us what we want.

3 & 5 I can't see, but who knows. Perhaps France decide to make the effort to dispose of a nuisance Portugal side, or one of the Group C sides fancies the 2nd place route.

Hmm... having just said the bit in bold, it seems that 2nd in C would play Italy at Wembley (assuming Wales do not win the group), whereas 3rd stands a good chance of Sweden, Slovakia, or Spain at Hampden. Funny that both sides go into the game knowing a point secures progress, but the team in 2nd right now, Ukraine, is doing so knowing they'll likely have a tougher game than Austria :lol:

Edited by Boo Khaki

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1 minute ago, Boo Khaki said:

yes, edited to reflect that

i'll just delete this post 

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21 minutes ago, Donathan said:

So we need any 2 of the following situations to play out:

 

1. Switzerland fail to beat Turkey by at least 2 goals

2. Either Russia or Finland lose

3. Austria v Ukraine is NOT a draw

4. Poland fail to beat Sweden

5. France beat Portugal 

All of those situations probably are playing out

If...we can win by any score we are definitely qualifying 

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30 minutes ago, Donathan said:

So we need any 2 of the following situations to play out:

 

1. Switzerland fail to beat Turkey by at least 2 goals

2. Either Russia or Finland lose

3. Austria v Ukraine is NOT a draw

4. Poland fail to beat Sweden

5. France beat Portugal 

We really want it to be two from the first three, meaning we know exactly what we have to do to go through. If we're in doubt as to whether we need a one or two-goal win them it harms our chances imo.

Thankfully Groups A and B look the most likely, but if Switzerland get the 2-goal win tomorrow I'll be panicking.

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