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(updated after Saturday's megalolz)

Four out of six. Four points is the target. Let's see how they're doing.

GROUP A

  • Switzerland: 1 point. Italy Turkey next. A win sees them in the running.
  • Turkey: 0 points. Hame already.
  • PREDICTION: Switzerland make it.

GROUP B

  • Finland: 3 (somewhat questionable) points. Belgium next. Naw.
  • Denmark: 0 points. Hame. Pity.
  • PREDICTION: Both go home.

GROUP C

  • Austria: 3 points. Ukraine next, also 3 points. A draw will probably see them both through; a win will probably knock one out.
  • North Macedonia: 0 points. The Former Yugoslav Republic of Hame.
  • PREDICTION: At least one bunch of open fascists slithering into the round of 16..

GROUP D

  • Us. 1 point. Croatia next, also one point. A winner will likely progress. A draw will put us both out. LET THE GLORIOUS FAILURE KRAKEN BE VANQUISHED.
  • A very amusing goal swing could potentially see England (4) or the Czech Republic (4) miss out on automatic progression but 4 should still be enough for third.
  • PREDICTION: Same as it ever was.

GROUP E

  • Sweden have 4, so even a loss to Poland should see them through
  • Slovakia have 3 but have Spain next. They need a point, but...
  • Spain have 2. A draw with Slovakia will leave them a point short! So it falls to...
  • Poland with 1 point. A win against Sweden could still potentially win them the group (!!!) if the other game is a draw. Worst-case, a win leaves them second (!!).
  • PREDICTION: Despite Saturday's drama, the most likely result is still Spain and Sweden through. If Poland win and Slovakia get a point it's very interesting.

GROUP F

  • Either Hungary could progress at the expense of Germany , or...
  • France could beat Portugal.
  • If both happen, third place is on < 4 points. Otherwise three progress from this group.
  • PREDICTION: Hungary still likely to go out, so the question is whether Portugal make it to 4 points. Based on Saturday's performances, who the f**k knows.

 

Edited by Thumper

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4 minutes ago, Flash said:

Switzerland play Turkey next.

I've fucked it then.

In that case, we're looking for Spain to beat Slovakia and for Finland to lose to Belgium. Or for Ukraine-Austria not to be a draw.

Edited by Thumper

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I've fucked it then.
In that case, we're looking for Spain to beat Slovakia and for Finland to lose to Belgium.
Both fairly likely

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Helpfully we play after Groups A-C have finished.

Therefore if finishing 3rd on 4pts isn't itself enough (e.g. due to 2 or 3 of Switzerland/Wales, Finland, Ukraine/Austria) we'll know what GD is needed.

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2 minutes ago, South Lanarkshire Jag said:

If we do get third place in the group, where are we likely to play our round of 16 game?

It could be Budapest, Seville or Hampden.
 

27 June 2021
18:00
Netherlands 23px-Flag_of_the_Netherlands.svg.png Match 40 3rd Group D/E/F
  Report  

27 June 2021
21:00
Winner Group B Match 39 3rd Group A/D/E/F
  Report  
La Cartuja, Seville
 
29 June 2021
21:00 (20:00 UTC+1)
Winner Group E Match 43 3rd Group A/B/C/D
  Report  

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For what it's worth Switzerland have a poor record against Turkey i think they've only  beaten Turkey once in 11 attempts and have never won in Baku. Can't help but think that will continue if Petkovic goes with the same team who played Wales and Italy. 

Edited by A_Veitch

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If Portugal and France beat Germany and Hungary tomorrow, that would guarantee any Scottish win would be enough to qualify so long as Switzerland lose, draw or win by only one goal against Turkey. It would also be enough in the unlikely event that Italy beat Wales by at least four.

I will worry about scenarios for other groups if a win isn't guaranteed to be enough after the conclusion of Group A on Sunday.

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Aye, I don't think 3rd is getting out of the Germany/France/Portugal/Hungary group, or if they do, it'll be with three points, which means that has no consequences for us if we have four.

Don't ask me why, but I have a hunch that Portugal will beat Germany, France will beat Hungary, leaving both Hungary and Germany going into the final match on 0 points.

I also can't see Turkey leaving the tournament with absolutely nothing to show for it, so I fancy them for at least a point v Switzerland.

Edited by Boo Khaki

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Can see Portugal being happy with a draw against the Germans, sadly, and Germany will twat Hungary if they need to. Still, you never know. Was assuming we would be looking for miracles at this stage of the tournament and now one win probably puts us through.

And our record in final group games at the Euros is pretty good...

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Can never work out whether I prefer GD or HTH as a tie breaker but at the moment I'm definitely not liking HTH. As poor as England were I still wouldn't expect them to lose to the Czechs so at least 3rd place has a shot of getting through.

Ukraine - Austria has 0-0 all over it, but one thing in our favour from a team that's already through is that Belgium will want to give De Bruyne and Eden Hazard more game time so would expect them to play vs Finland and Belgium to win. Portugal winning would be a nice bonus but I can see that being a draw.

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I  think I'm basing my Germany assertion on the fact that it would be a really unusual tournament without one 'giant' making a complete arse of it and not getting through the group stage. France looked great the other night without ever really getting out of 1st gear, so it's possible Germany's relatively meek performance was more a facet of who they were playing, but they have Portugal up next, who are as spawny, lucky, and as adept at cheating as any nation in world football, so I wouldn't be shocked if it emerges that Germany really aren't anything special at all. Ronaldo dives for a pen or something, and suddenly Germany needs to cross their fingers and hope for help to get through.

I'm also assuming that Hungary will take a pumping off France, meaning that they'll be able to go into the Germany game with no fear at all, as it's literally a baws oot 'have a go' situation for them. Just a pity for them it's in Munich and no Budapest, or I'd really fancy them to embarrass Low & Co.

The other possibility is Portugal get ridden rotten by both France and Germany, but then they already have 3 points and a decent GD to fall back on. Would mean that they still wouldn't be a threat to a Scotland side with 4 points though. 

So yeah, I still think there's every chance that third in this group only has 3 points no matter who it is.

Edited by Boo Khaki

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I still reckon 3 points will see at least one team through in third (it saw both Portugal and N.I through at the last Euros), so obviously if we pick up 4, it will be enough.

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2 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

I still reckon 3 points will see at least one team through in third (it saw both Portugal and N.I through at the last Euros), so obviously if we pick up 4, it will be enough.

Agreed. I've been saying all along I think the '16th' place qualifier will likely only have 3 points, and possibly a -1 GD to boot. That could even have been us had we lost at Wembley but comfortably beaten Croatia.

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5 minutes ago, Boo Khaki said:

I  think I'm basing my Germany assertion on the fact that it would be a really unusual tournament without one 'giant' making a complete arse of it and not getting through the group stage. France looked great the other night without ever really getting out of 1st gear, so it's possible Germany's relatively meek performance was more a facet of who they were playing, but they have Portugal up next, who are as spawny, lucky, and as adept at cheating as any nation in world football, so I wouldn't be shocked if it emerges that Germany really aren't anything special at all. Ronaldo dives for a pen or something, and suddenly Germany needs to cross their fingers and hope for help to get through.

I'm also assuming that Hungary will take a pumping off France, meaning that they'll be able to go into the Germany game with no fear at all, as it's literally a baws oot 'have a go' situation for them. Just a pity for them it's in Munich and no Budapest, or I'd really fancy them to embarrass Low & Co.

The other possibility is Portugal get ridden rotten by both France and Germany, but then they already have 3 points and a decent GD to fall back on. Would mean that they still wouldn't be a threat to a Scotland side with 4 points though. 

So yeah, I still think there's every chance that third in this group only has 3 points no matter who it is.

France will likely play the reserves in their last game, assuming they see off the Magyars, so unlikely Portugal lose both games I reckon.

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3 minutes ago, djchapsticks said:

I still reckon 3 points will see at least one team through in third (it saw both Portugal and N.I through at the last Euros), so obviously if we pick up 4, it will be enough.

I think it's likely but would rather it was sure by Tuesday or waiting for the last two groups to finish could be torture! 

Both Groups A and B are promising. C, not so much.

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1 minute ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

France will likely play the reserves in their last game, assuming they see off the Magyars, so unlikely Portugal lose both games I reckon.

Yeah, technically, a team from that group could finish 3rd on 6 points which would be really unusual.

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20 minutes ago, Bully Wee Villa said:

Can see Portugal being happy with a draw against the Germans, sadly, and Germany will twat Hungary if they need to. Still, you never know. Was assuming we would be looking for miracles at this stage of the tournament and now one win probably puts us through.

And our record in final group games at the Euros is pretty good...

Beating a team ranked 30 places ahead of us would be that miracle surely? England beat them though, and they're shitey, so... 

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