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CaspianChris

Group E (Poland, Slovakia, Spain, Sweden)

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2 minutes ago, resk said:

Testing this out a bit - what is the sample size of 24 team 6 group tournaments with 16 teams going through and 3 points for a win?  If the sample size is one, Euro 2016, then I'm going to keep on worrying.  It's absolutely possible for all six third place teams to finish with four or more points.  

A few have gone through the last half dozen Euros and World Cups, and four points would have always put you in the top 66% of third placed teams.

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9 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

A few have gone through the last half dozen Euros and World Cups, and four points would have always put you in the top 66% of third placed teams.

Fair enough.  But, there is definitely a difference between "no team has ever gone home with four points" and "it's impossible to go home with four points".  

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I think a point is a fair reflection of the game, Spain certainly not setting the heather on fire in these first 2 games...

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1 minute ago, Melanius Mullarkey said:

Spain reverting to their perennial underachiever status.

All the ball posession skill in the world but no vision what to actually do with it to win a game.

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Fair enough.  But, there is definitely a difference between "no team has ever gone home with four points" and "it's impossible to go home with four points".  
Spain could end up going home unbeaten but losing out on a place because they either finish bottom or have one of the worst 3rd place team records.

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Just now, resk said:

Fair enough.  But, there is definitely a difference between "no team has ever gone home with four points" and "it's impossible to go home with four points".  

Someone quoted a 99% certainty, but not a mathematical one.

Couldn’t comment on the certainty, but last time around only two teams had 4. Four had 3.

Having looked back through WCs and Euros, getting 2 or fewer is very rare.

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Just now, DeeTillEhDeh said:
3 minutes ago, resk said:
Fair enough.  But, there is definitely a difference between "no team has ever gone home with four points" and "it's impossible to go home with four points".  

Spain could end up going home unbeaten but losing out on a place because they either finish bottom with or have one if the worst 3rd place team records.

Also known as 'Doing a Scotland'.

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I'm not sure how Poland drawing with Spain is such a shock considering Sweden have already exposed their inadequacies. 

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Annie Clark's turn as Poland manager is the sort of bold change in direction that you've come to expect from St Vincent.

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I can't believe I'm saying this, but I wouldn't mind Scotland facing either of these two sides. 

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Spain drawing that with 13 men is glorious. A tremendous number of very unhappy sponsors tonight.

Edited by Thumper

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29 minutes ago, HuttonDressedAsLahm said:

Someone quoted a 99% certainty, but not a mathematical one.

Couldn’t comment on the certainty, but last time around only two teams had 4. Four had 3.

Having looked back through WCs and Euros, getting 2 or fewer is very rare.

"99%" sounds suspiciously like they tried to calculate it, gave up and just said that to suit whatever point they were trying to make.  Looking at the groups and the fixtures now, it looks like a lot more than a 1 in 100 chance that five or more teams finish in third place with four or more points.   

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